Thoughts on $111,000 bitcoin

00:02 Hey everyone, welcome to
00:04 $111,000 Bitcoin. Um, feels great. It
00:08 feels great to uh, you know, after
00:10 slogging through the uh, you know, the
00:12 the the pain of the ups and downs over
00:15 the years and ups and downs and ups and
00:16 downs and ups and downs, finally for bit
00:18 Bitcoin to behave to be behaving exactly
00:21 the way it should be behaving and doing
00:24 exactly what it was designed to do when
00:25 Bitcoin was invented. And that’s kind of
00:27 where we are right now. Bitcoin is doing
00:29 exactly what it was intended to do and
00:31 responding to the impacts of the
00:33 marketplace for exactly the right
00:35 reasons. Um, as I covered in a video,
00:38 uh, there was the the US Treasury has
00:41 been having issues selling its debt.
00:43 That continues. The big drop in the
00:46 stock market that happened uh, either
00:48 yes, I think it was yesterday was due to
00:50 another what’s called a sort of a failed
00:52 Treasury auction. Didn’t doesn’t mean it
00:54 failed. It means right at the end they
00:55 had to raise interest rates in order to
00:57 entice enough people to buy the debt. Uh
00:60 which basically means there was less
01:01 appetite. More people were saying, “Why
01:03 would I buy that? You’re not going to
01:04 pay it back.” Or if you do pay it back,
01:06 you’re going to have to print so much
01:07 money that you’re going to have to pay
01:09 me a higher interest rate than what you
01:10 want to pay me in order to get me to buy
01:13 this debt. Of course, I think anybody
01:15 that’s buying US government debt is
01:16 crazy. But, you know, I don’t I don’t
01:19 know why you’d ever, you know, lend
01:21 money to a drunken sailor, but here we
01:23 are. Uh, 37 trillion in debt and people
01:26 are still loaning us money that we can
01:28 print out of thin air. It makes no
01:29 sense. Um, but anyway, so after another,
01:32 uh, you know, quasi failed Treasury
01:35 auction earlier this week, uh, Bitcoin
01:38 did exactly what it was designed to do,
01:39 which is it went up, stock market went
01:42 down. uh clearly indicating that people
01:44 are you know understanding as they
01:47 should that Bitcoin is a safe haven in
01:49 an uncertain and chaotic world. Bitcoin
01:52 is a safe place to preserve value for
01:54 the long term because it cannot be
01:56 manipulated by anyone. So the number one
01:59 question I have been getting over the
02:02 last two days one
02:05 second is Joel is it still a good time
02:08 to buy Bitcoin? Well, my answer never
02:10 changes, which is it’s never a bad time
02:12 to buy Bitcoin. But I posted this
02:14 morning on Facebook that look, if you
02:16 asked me that question when Bitcoin was
02:18 between 70 and $90,000, I would have
02:20 said buy it, buy it, buy it, buy as much
02:22 as you can. Like, it’s down. It’s down.
02:24 It’s down for no good reason. Buy as
02:26 much as you can. Um, even if you can’t
02:28 hold it that long. Like, I still think
02:30 it’s a asymmetric bet, meaning the the
02:33 reward significantly outweighs the risk
02:35 at, you know, between 70 and 90,000.
02:38 between 90,000 and $ 110,000. I posted,
02:41 look, between $70,000 and $90,000, it’s
02:45 still a good time to buy Bitcoin, but
02:47 you got to be willing to hold it for at
02:48 least a year or two because there’s ups
02:50 and downs, and you don’t want to be uh
02:52 potentially in a situation where you’re
02:54 stuck selling Bitcoin that is down from
02:56 the price you paid for it. And so,
02:58 that’s what I posted for between 70,
03:00 sorry, between 90,000 and 110,000. Uh
03:03 what I posted is if it’s above 110,000,
03:05 which it is right now at
03:07 111,000, it’s still a good time to buy
03:09 Bitcoin, but you need to be able to hold
03:12 it for 3 or 4 years. Now, do I think
03:14 it’s going to be down significantly in
03:18 much of the next 3 or 4 years? No. But
03:21 you got to, you know, we’re not, we
03:22 don’t play risky games where we’re like,
03:24 hey, you know, I’m definitely going to
03:26 need this money in a year or two or
03:28 three and, you know, or whatever, a year
03:31 or two. and then you’re risking selling
03:33 it when it’s a price lower than today,
03:35 which again I don’t think is going to
03:36 happen. And if it does happen, I think
03:37 it’ll be shortlived, but we just don’t
03:39 know the future. So there’s no reason
03:40 to, you know, no reason to risk that.
03:43 Okay. Um, so, uh, I also posted this
03:46 morning, some of this I’m just recapping
03:48 so you have it in video form in addition
03:49 to written form in case you prefer
03:51 video. I posted, uh, another way of
03:54 answering the question. So, this way of
03:56 answering the question is, yes, now is
03:58 still a good time to buy Bitcoin. Um,
04:00 it’s just, you know, above $110,000. You
04:03 got to understand that your hold, you
04:05 got to be willing to hold it for three
04:06 or four years because, you know, it
04:08 could go up and down in the next one or
04:10 two years and who knows. I think it’s
04:12 going to be up, but you know, nobody
04:14 knows. Um, at least nobody knows in the
04:16 near term, even if it’s relatively
04:18 certain in the long term. All right. The
04:20 other the other thing I posted is a
04:22 number of people have asked me, they’ve
04:23 said, “Well, Joel, you know, you know,
04:26 one person posted in response to a
04:28 comment that look, you know, I’ve been
04:30 trying to free up money from a 401k or
04:32 an IRA or a Roth IRA or whatever it is.
04:35 I’ve been trying to free up this money
04:36 for more than a month now. Bitcoin was
04:38 in the 80,000s when I tried to free up
04:40 the money. Here it is a month or two
04:42 later. Finally, the money shows up. You
04:45 know, broken loose from the broken
04:46 financial system. and now it’s available
04:49 to buy Bitcoin. And here we are at
04:51 $111,000. Do you still buy it? And lots
04:54 of people, I mean, I’ve probably had 20
04:56 people in the last two days ask me,
04:57 Joel, is it still a good time to buy
04:59 Bitcoin? Is it still a good time to buy
05:00 Bitcoin? So, another way of answering
05:02 that question is yes. So, the first way
05:04 is yes, but you need to be able to hold
05:06 it for three or four years. The another
05:08 way of answering that question is yes,
05:10 because it is your least worst option.
05:12 Here’s what I mean by least worst. The
05:15 best time to buy Bitcoin is when it’s at
05:17 a multi-year low. It’s down and out.
05:19 Nobody’s talking about it. Everybody
05:20 assumes Bitcoin is dead. And that’s the
05:23 best time to buy Bitcoin. But you only
05:25 get those opportunities, you know, every
05:27 2 or 3 years or every four years really.
05:29 Um, and you can’t predict when they’re
05:31 going to happen. And you can’t predict
05:32 if Bitcoin will ever be lower than
05:34 today’s price. It could zoom up to
05:36 220,000 and then drop to 120,000. And
05:39 the lowest it ever goes is 9,000 higher
05:41 than today. So, it’s possible that if
05:44 you wait for a multi-year low that the
05:47 lowest low you ever get is a price
05:48 that’s higher than today. So, you know,
05:51 there’s no way to count on that. But the
05:52 best time is in a multi-year low. You
05:55 know, which basically nobody wants to
05:56 buy Bitcoin when it’s in a multi-year
05:58 low cuz, you know, nobody wants to buy
06:00 any financial asset when it’s massively
06:02 on sale because they’re scared. They’re
06:04 afraid it’s going to go away. They’re
06:05 afraid it’s going to die. They’re afraid
06:07 it’s never coming back. All this sort of
06:08 stuff. But the best time to buy any
06:10 asset is when it’s massively on sale.
06:13 Um, the second best time is when it’s
06:15 coming off of being massively on sale.
06:17 It’s starting to march up, but it’s
06:18 still quite low. The third best time is
06:21 when it’s headed south, when it’s going
06:23 down, when people are worried, they
06:24 don’t know where the bottom is. It’s in
06:26 a price correction, you know. The fourth
06:28 best time to buy Bitcoin is when it’s
06:30 going up off of a price correction. That
06:33 may not be a multi-year low, but it’s
06:35 still lower, you know, which leaves the
06:37 fifth best time to buy it is when it’s
06:40 rocketing up like the last two days. Uh
06:43 the problem with the that being the
06:45 fifth best time is the worst time is if
06:48 is to not buy it at all. So, if the
06:50 answer was that now is not a good time
06:53 to buy Bitcoin, then you have a problem,
06:56 which is, you know, well, if you don’t
06:58 buy it now, then you’re in category six,
06:60 which is you’re not buying it at all. Uh
07:02 because people, you know, if you don’t
07:03 buy it now, what are you going to do?
07:04 You’re going to sit on it. Are you going
07:06 to buy it at 120? Are you going to buy
07:07 it at 130, 140? Are you going to buy it
07:11 when it cracks 5%, when it’s down 10%,
07:13 what about 15%. Nobody knows. No, nobody
07:16 has any good answers to those questions
07:18 that if you don’t buy it now, when are
07:21 you going to buy it? And what everybody
07:23 thinks is, “Oh, I’ll buy it when it’s
07:25 cheaper.” But then they have no idea
07:27 what cheaper means. And then when
07:28 cheaper comes, they freak out because
07:31 it’s down for a reason. And they’re
07:33 like, “Oh no, maybe it has a problem.
07:35 Maybe something’s wrong with Bitcoin.
07:36 Maybe it’s down 10% or 20% for a reason.
07:39 Maybe it’s going to drop further.” So
07:42 there’s just no good answer to the
07:44 question of is now a good time to buy
07:47 Bitcoin? The answer is yes. Because
07:50 there’s no good answer to the question
07:51 no. Because if you say no, it’s not a
07:54 good time to buy Bitcoin, then it begs
07:56 the question, well, when is a good time
07:57 to buy Bitcoin? And the answer is nobody
07:60 knows because you can’t time the market.
08:01 And if you can’t time the market, then
08:03 it’s impossible to know when a good time
08:05 or a bad time is. You just it’s just you
08:07 just don’t know. Um, so yes, I think
08:10 it’s a good time to buy Bitcoin because
08:11 the alternative is to not buy Bitcoin.
08:14 And you don’t have the opportunity right
08:17 now to buy it at a multi-year low. It’s
08:20 not at a multi-year low. So, that’s not
08:21 one of the options. It’s not coming off
08:24 of a multi-year low. So, that’s not one
08:26 of the options. It’s not in a massive
08:28 price or even a moderate price
08:29 correction right now cuz we’re at
08:31 all-time highs. So, that’s not an
08:32 option. And it’s not just recovering
08:35 from a big price correction. I guess you
08:36 could argue it sort of is. You know,
08:38 Bitcoin was down 33%, I don’t know, in
08:40 the last month or two or whatever it
08:42 was. So, you could kind of argue that
08:44 we’re in category 4, which is recovering
08:46 from a price correction. But again, it’s
08:48 not like it’s not like today it’s
08:49 recovering and it’s barely above the
08:51 low. You know, the low the most recent
08:53 low was 74,000 something a month or two
08:56 back. It’s not like you’re buying it at
08:58 80 or 90 or even 100. We’re up here at
09:01 111. So, so the least worst option is to
09:05 buy it because the next option is to not
09:08 buy it. And there’s no good option that
09:10 involves buying it at some other time
09:12 because that involves timing in the
09:13 market and we don’t know the future. We
09:15 don’t know the prices and inevitably
09:18 when it’s a good time to buy, you won’t
09:19 want to buy because it’ll be scary. And
09:22 you know, this is just it is what it is.
09:25 So, if somebody showed up today and gave
09:27 me $10,000 or $100,000 actually,
09:30 interestingly enough,
09:32 um through I won’t go into all the
09:35 details, but uh $14,000 is freeing up
09:38 literally today. Literally today,
09:40 someone just called me right before this
09:41 and said, “Hey, we have a refund check
09:44 for, long story, something business
09:46 related. We have a refund check for
09:48 $14,000. What do you want me to do with
09:49 it?” Literally, they called me right
09:51 before this call. And I said, “Go
09:53 deposit it at Trustmark as fast as you
09:56 can so that I can suck it out of there
09:57 as fast as I can and buy Bitcoin.”
09:59 Literally, that was the conversation I
10:01 had right before this one was so they
10:04 they got in their car while we were on
10:06 the phone so they could drive to
10:08 Trustmark so they could deposit that uh
10:11 money so that I can suck it into
10:14 Coinbase and buy Bitcoin using Coinbase
10:17 Advanced with the lowest possible fees,
10:19 which is exactly what’s going to happen
10:20 the very second I get my hands on that
10:23 money at Trustark. And hopefully they
10:24 won’t have a, you know, multi-day hold
10:26 or something like that. I’m hoping they
10:28 don’t. Um, so anyway, that’s what’s
10:30 going to happen. That money is going to
10:31 buy Bitcoin at
10:33 $111,000. I’m going to buy $14,000 of
10:36 Bitcoin because that money became
10:37 available today. And I am going to buy
10:41 Bitcoin literally the moment I can get
10:44 that money out of Trustark and into
10:45 Bitcoin, I will do that. If they put a
10:48 one-day hold on it, it’ll be one day. If
10:50 they put a three-day hold on it, it’ll
10:51 be 3 days. If they don’t let me buy it
10:53 until 7 days, guess what? 7 days from
10:55 now, no matter what the price of Bitcoin
10:57 is, I don’t care if it’s 120. I don’t
10:59 care if it’s 130. I don’t care if it’s
11:00 back down to 95, whenever I can get that
11:03 money out of Trust Mark, it will
11:05 immediately, that $14,000 will
11:07 immediately be used to buy Bitcoin at
11:10 any price. Like, doesn’t matter what the
11:12 price is, I’m just going to hit buy
11:13 Bitcoin. I forgot I had a good example.
11:15 I didn’t have a good example until, you
11:17 know, 30 minutes ago, but now I have a
11:19 good example. So, what would I do if
11:20 $14,000 dropped out of the sky like it
11:23 did, you know, 30 minutes ago? I mean, I
11:26 guess I knew it was coming cuz I I knew
11:28 I was going to get this refund at some
11:29 point. I just had no idea when. It could
11:31 have been any time in the last 2 months.
11:33 Yeah, it would have been nice a month
11:35 ago when Bitcoin was in the 80,000s. But
11:37 guess what? The refund didn’t show up a
11:39 month ago when it was in the 80,000s. It
11:42 showed up today at $111,000. So guess
11:44 what? I buy Bitcoin at
11:47 $111,000 because there is no good
11:49 option. There is no other good option
11:52 other than to buy Bitcoin today. Even
11:55 with dollar cost averaging, which is
11:57 buying the same amount of Bitcoin every
11:59 day, sorry, every week, typically it’s
12:01 done weekly. Even if somebody said,
12:02 “Hey, dollar cost average that $14,000.”
12:06 My question is, okay, how I am I doing
12:08 a,000 a week over 14 weeks? Am I doing
12:11 7,000 a week over two weeks? Am I doing
12:14 500 a week over 14 weeks? Like the
12:19 problem is how am I dollar cost
12:21 averaging that? When am how long am I
12:23 dollar cost averaging? Nobody knows.
12:25 Nobody has an answer to that question.
12:27 That’s why I just buy Bitcoin. It’s the
12:29 only thing that seems to really work.
12:30 Um, so anyway, uh, that so I’m gonna buy
12:34 $111,000 Bitcoin as soon as Trustark
12:36 will let me or whatever the price
12:38 happens to be as soon as Trustark uh
12:40 gives me access to my very to my own
12:42 money, which obviously they they always
12:44 put holds on checks and stuff like that.
12:46 Um, anyway, so uh let’s see what else.
12:49 Um, so the US government has serious
12:53 problems right now because people are
12:55 not flocking to the US Treasury bills,
12:58 US government debt as a safe haven. They
13:00 are flocking instead to gold and
13:02 Bitcoin. Bitcoin is way better than
13:04 gold. Uh, I think most of the runup that
13:07 gold is going to have already happened
13:09 with gold at 3,300 an ounce or whatever
13:12 it’s at. Uh I think the vast majority of
13:14 the obviously upside of bit excuse me of
13:18 Bitcoin is ahead of it. So at some point
13:20 we will get a significant Bitcoin
13:23 repricing. So what do I mean repricing?
13:25 At some point Bitcoin will very rapidly
13:28 go from whatever price it’s at to a new
13:32 price. Um a new price that reflects the
13:35 fact that the world has woken up and
13:37 understands Bitcoin’s value. Now, if
13:40 somebody said, “Hey, what what does that
13:42 maybe look like?” It probably looks like
13:44 Bitcoin going from 110,000 to 170,000 or
13:49 220,000 or I don’t know, 168,000, maybe
13:53 150,000. I don’t know, somewhere between
13:56 150,000 and 220,000 like really fast.
13:59 Now, is that tomorrow? Is that 5 days
14:01 from now? Is that 5 months from now?
14:04 Does it take 5 years? Nobody knows.
14:06 Literally nobody knows. Um but all I
14:09 know is at some point just like the
14:12 world recognized over the last 2 days
14:14 that wow US failed US government
14:17 treasury auction failed again in
14:19 relative terms. I’m not saying nobody
14:21 bought the debt. I’m just saying the
14:22 government was not able to sell the debt
14:24 they wanted to sell at the interest rate
14:26 and it uh they wanted to sell it at and
14:28 everybody freaked out because it was
14:29 like wow nobody’s buying this or people
14:32 are not buying this with the same
14:33 appetite they had before. Um, so at some
14:36 point there will be things that really
14:38 throw the whole system for a loop and
14:40 that will result in a significant
14:41 repricing event. Meaning just like gold
14:44 very quickly went from 2500 uh uh dollar
14:48 an ounce to $3,300 an ounce, an $800
14:52 price move in the price of gold. Or
14:54 maybe it was even more than that. I
14:55 think it was like, you know, 2,300 up to
14:58 3,300. $1,000 price move in the price of
15:01 gold which is represented I don’t know
15:03 five or eight trillion dollar in the
15:05 price of gold. It was some ridiculously
15:07 large large uh amount and that happened
15:09 relatively quickly. I mean relatively
15:11 quickly. So I think the same is in store
15:13 for Bitcoin that we’re going to get a
15:14 pretty significant repricing where
15:16 people just recategorized Bitcoin in
15:19 there as hey this is not a sort of a
15:22 risky niche asset. This is a major world
15:25 currency and a major digital asset and a
15:28 digital store of value and as soon as
15:31 that is reflected um you know as soon as
15:34 that is understood by the market place
15:36 there will be a you know significant
15:38 repricing event. So all that really
15:39 matters in my opinion is well how much
15:41 bitcoin do you own before that happens.
15:43 Uh just like I spent all last year
15:45 asking people, hey, at some point
15:47 Bitcoin is going to break out of this
15:48 range from 55,000 to 70,000. And the
15:51 question I was always asking people is,
15:53 how much Bitcoin are you going to own
15:56 when we officially leave the 55,000 to
15:59 $70,000 price range behind? Now, we
16:02 stayed in that range 55,000 to 70,000
16:05 almost the entirety of 7 and a half
16:07 months, 7.5 months. From the middle of
16:10 March to the end of October last year,
16:13 Bitcoin was almost entirely between
16:16 55,000 and 70,000. And the question I
16:19 was always asking people is, hey, at
16:21 some point we’re going to sort of repric
16:23 into the six figures. Um, how much
16:26 Bitcoin are you going to own when that
16:27 happens? Well, here we are. We have
16:29 repriced into the six figures. Now the
16:31 question is when do we repric in the you
16:34 know hundreds of thousands of dollars in
16:37 instead of just above
16:40 $100,000. So at what price at what point
16:43 does Bitcoin become a $2 to $300,000
16:46 asset instead of a $100,000 per coin
16:50 asset? Um that’s going to happen at some
16:52 point. I just I can’t tell you if it’s
16:54 the next week or two, the next year or
16:56 two. I don’t know. I don’t think it’s
16:58 going to take more than 5 years, but
17:00 literally nobody knows. The question is,
17:02 how much Bitcoin are you going to own
17:03 when that happens? That’s that’s the
17:06 question. So, um, hopefully this is
17:09 helpful. I know for those of you who do
17:10 not have 100% of your liquid assets in
17:13 Bitcoin like I do, I know it’s stressful
17:15 because you’re asking yourself, should I
17:17 put more in and wow, it’s so expensive.
17:19 And Joel’s telling me that there’s four
17:22 better times to invest in Bitcoin than
17:24 when it’s on a rocket ride up. But that
17:27 number five, which is where we are on a
17:29 rocket ride up, is still better than not
17:31 investing in Bitcoin. So, I understand
17:34 it’s it’s hard. But guess what? I mean,
17:37 this journey is hard. It’s just hard. If
17:39 it was easy, everybody in the world
17:41 would have adopted Bitcoin. It’s hard
17:43 because it’s hard to understand Bitcoin
17:45 and the vast majority of the world does
17:47 not understand Bitcoin. It’s hard to
17:50 invest in a volatile asset that goes up
17:53 and down on its way up because it means
17:55 you got to hold it when it’s down. And
17:58 that’s hard. So, there’s a lot of hard
17:60 things about Bitcoin and one of them is
18:02 Bitcoin at
18:04 $111,000 and you trying to decide, do
18:06 you invest more in Bitcoin? It’s your
18:08 money. I’m not a financial adviser, not
18:10 a legal adviser, not a tax adviser, not
18:12 an accounting adviser. I am not sort any
18:15 sort of professional adviser. Everything
18:17 I share is just my random opin opinion
18:20 for your uh amusement and otherwise
18:23 value. That’s it. So, if it were me, and
18:26 it is me because I just got $14,000
18:29 freed up all of 30 minutes ago, then
18:31 what do I do? I buy
18:33 Bitcoin. What did I do back when I felt
18:35 the exact same way when Bitcoin was
18:37 rocketing past $11,000 instead of 1 thou
18:42 111,000? What did I do at $11,000? I
18:45 bought Bitcoin. What did I do when
18:46 Bitcoin was setting all-time highs back
18:49 in 2021? I bought Bitcoin. What was I
18:52 doing when it was at the depths of the
18:54 bare market in 2022? I was buying
18:56 Bitcoin. And what did I do when it was
18:58 setting records in 2024 when it crossed
19:01 24,000 or sorry, $74,000 for the first
19:04 time in 2024? I was also buying Bitcoin.
19:07 I was buying it all the time with as
19:10 much assets as I can break loose. And so
19:13 I’ve bought every top, I’ve bought every
19:15 bottom, I’ve bought everything in
19:17 between because over time my comfort
19:20 level with Bitcoin has gotten higher and
19:21 higher and higher and eventually it got
19:23 high enough that I decided the
19:26 appropriate allocation for me was 100%
19:29 of my liquid assets. Now Rachel manages
19:32 our an emergency fund that I do not have
19:34 legal access to on purpose because I
19:37 have a very high risk tolerance. So when
19:39 I say 100% that is only of the assets th
19:42 that I own or control of our assets
19:45 which is you know the lion’s share. It
19:47 is the vast majority of those assets but
19:49 it’s not all of them because I do not
19:50 count the assets that are exclusively
19:52 under Rachel’s control because uh
19:55 they’re not mine and I have no legal
19:56 right over them on purpose. That way our
19:59 family is still going to be able to buy
20:00 groceries even if I’m wrong about all
20:02 this. Uh, but the assets I possibly
20:04 could invest in Bitcoin are 100%
20:07 invested in Bitcoin. And they were this
20:10 morning 100% invested in Bitcoin. As of
20:12 30 minutes ago, I found out there’s
20:14 $14,000 that’s not in Bitcoin that just
20:16 showed up. So, guess what? I’m just
20:18 above I’m just below 100% invested
20:20 because that $14,000 showed up. So,
20:23 tomorrow, if Trust Mark will let me, I
20:25 will be back to 100% fully invested in
20:28 Bitcoin with some $111,000 Bitcoin uh to
20:32 get that $14,000 out of US dollars. So,
20:35 hopefully all this is helpful. Hit me
20:37 with any questions. I love doing videos.
20:39 I love being your local Bitcoin sherpa
20:42 and trying to help you as much as I can.
20:44 And I understand this journey is hard.
20:46 Uh things that are worth doing are hard
20:49 and uh but it’s worth it. It’s worth it
20:51 in the long run. Have a great day
20:52 everyone. Thanks