QUESTION: Should I lump sum purchase bitcoin, or should I Dollar Cost Average (DCA) every week?

00:01 Hey everyone. A question I get often is,
00:04 “Is now still a good time to buy Bitcoin
00:06 at $104,000 per coin, or should I start
00:10 dollar cost averaging, DCA, which means
00:12 buying the same amount of uh US dollars
00:15 worth of Bitcoin every week? Uh, or
00:18 should I wait and just wait for lower
00:19 prices?” Of course, I never recommend
00:22 just waiting for lower prices. Uh,
00:24 Bitcoin has left behind millions of
00:26 people over the years who have waited
00:28 for lower prices. rel uh rather than
00:31 just you know jumping in. So uh that
00:34 being said um I’m officially going to
00:36 roll out with this video my
00:37 recommendation because I want to make
00:39 the recommendation in advance rather
00:41 than wait for you know the epic price
00:43 cycles that tend to get people to feel
00:46 all euphoric and all that sort of stuff.
00:47 So I’ve said before that below $110,000
00:52 per coin I’m recommending people just
00:54 buy whatever Bitcoin they’re going to
00:55 buy. Just do it. close your eyes, hit
00:57 buy, and you know, so store it in a safe
01:01 place like Bit Key and just don’t think
01:03 about it for years. Um, again, unless
01:05 you’re buying so much Bitcoin that
01:06 you’re using the Coinbased debit card to
01:08 buy stuff because it’s your, you know,
01:10 primary source of money like me. Um, but
01:13 a lot of people are not there yet.
01:14 They’re just using it as a long-term
01:16 savings and investment rather than a
01:19 daily spending money. Um, so anyway, um,
01:22 so below $110,000 per coin. Right now
01:25 we’re at 104. So below 110. I just
01:28 think, you know, buy whatever you’re
01:30 going to buy, hold on to as long as
01:31 conceivably possible. between $110,000
01:34 per coin and $120,000 per coin. I will
01:37 probably I haven’t committed to this,
01:39 but I will probably recommend people buy
01:42 what you know if they have an amount of
01:44 money that they’re going to buy if they
01:45 say, “Okay, Joel, I’m I’m going to buy
01:46 $1,000 or $5,000 or $10,000.” I will
01:50 probably recommend they buy the half of
01:52 that they buy immediately and the other
01:55 half the dollar cost average which means
01:58 break it up into some you know however
02:00 much you’re going to buy per week and
02:02 just buy that much per week and just put
02:04 it on autopilot and the best platform to
02:06 do that on is River ri I
02:09 v.com River has zero fees on recurring
02:12 purchases after the first week and so
02:14 it’s super easy to set it up and just
02:16 buy the same amount every week and
02:19 Again, after the first weekly purchase,
02:20 starting with week two, you don’t pay
02:22 any fees on the River P platform to buy
02:25 Bitcoin that way, and you just
02:27 accumulate over time. Um, so, uh,
02:31 between 110,000 and $120,000 per coin,
02:35 that is what I think I will recommend or
02:37 that is what I am tentatively
02:38 recommending. And above $120,000 per
02:42 coin, I will probably recommend people
02:44 mostly dollar cost average. So according
02:46 to James Czech, my favorite check uh
02:49 Bitcoin analyst that goes by uh the the
02:52 name Checkmate, according to his
02:53 analysis, which is all on Substack and
02:56 available uh some of it for free and
02:58 some of it by prescript or subscription.
03:01 Uh according to him, uh we are in the
03:04 fourth quarter of this Bitcoin bull
03:06 market. uh Bitcoin bull markets tend to
03:09 have four-year cycles and um the sort of
03:13 the current cycle started in the fourth
03:15 quarter of 2022 and according to him
03:17 we’re sort of in the fourth quarter of
03:19 this Bitcoin bull market and so we will
03:21 see a likely see a significant or at
03:25 least moderate price correction at some
03:27 point maybe it’s 6 months maybe it’s 12
03:29 months 18 months I don’t know somewhere
03:31 along the way we will get some
03:32 meaningful price pullback and I totally
03:35 understand that even if the right thing
03:37 to maximize your long-term gains is to
03:40 just buy as much Bitcoin as you can and
03:41 hold on for as long as possible. That is
03:44 psychologically hard for people to ride
03:46 out a dip. Uh some people capitulate.
03:49 They buy at, let’s call it some number
03:51 100 at above $120,000 per coin. Then the
03:54 price dips to 110. They can’t take it
03:56 anymore. They sell Bitcoin. So they
03:58 bought it at 150. They’re selling at at
04:01 110. None of that makes any sense. It’s
04:04 the worst financial decision they could
04:05 ever make because 110 ends up being the
04:08 bottom and then it just marches higher
04:10 and higher into the hundreds of
04:11 thousands of dollars. But every cycle
04:13 people do that and a great way to avoid
04:15 doing that is dollar cost averaging. So
04:18 above $120,000 per coin. I will probably
04:21 recommend people start dollar cost
04:23 averaging by buying the same amount
04:25 every week. That way if the price is
04:27 high, you’re buying and let’s say you’re
04:29 buying $100 a week, you’re buying a
04:31 little less Bitcoin. it costs you $100
04:33 regardless, but uh you’re buying a
04:35 little less Bitcoin per week when the
04:36 price is high, but then when the price,
04:38 you know, corrects and comes down,
04:40 you’re buying more Bitcoin per week
04:42 because your $100 buys more of a Bitcoin
04:45 uh when the price is lower as compared
04:47 to higher. But it’s a great way to just
04:49 psychologically
04:50 uh not have to worry about it rather
04:52 than stressing out for months at a time
04:54 about how your Bitcoin investment is
04:56 underwater and then inevitably with time
04:59 it’s way above water. But a lot of
05:01 people don’t like that emotional uh
05:03 feeling of being underwater. Even if
05:05 long-term it ends up being the best for
05:08 long-term gains. So uh to recap here, I
05:11 below $110,000 per coin. I still my
05:14 instincts say buy as much Bitcoin as you
05:16 can. Lump some just buy it, you know,
05:19 whatever you feel like you can afford
05:20 and hold on to it for as long as
05:22 possible. I think I will recommend
05:24 between 110 and $120,000 per coin that
05:27 people put 50% of whatever they’re
05:30 planning to buy in immediately and then
05:32 dollar cost average to the rest. And the
05:34 problem is, you know, dollar cost
05:36 averaging is like over what time period
05:37 is that a month? Is that a, you know, a
05:40 year? Is that 18 months? I don’t know.
05:42 That’s that’s the reason I don’t like
05:44 dollar cost averaging is because it
05:45 triggers the question of okay but you
05:47 know even if weekly is the right amount
05:49 is the right time period how long do you
05:51 let it run well if it’s the sort of
05:54 thing where you can afford it based on
05:56 your income streams then just let it run
05:57 indefinitely because if that’s what you
05:59 can afford just let it run until you
06:01 turn it off and that’s by far the
06:03 easiest thing but if somebody has
06:04 $10,000 they want to buy and the price
06:07 is above 110 I I will probably tell them
06:10 look buy 5,000 of it right now. Just buy
06:14 keep it simple. Buy it and you know
06:17 spend the other $5,000 uh you know once
06:20 a week over some time frame that you got
06:22 to decide what that is. I don’t know
06:23 which is why I don’t like dollar cost
06:24 averaging. But at some point when the
06:26 market is all frothy, especially if
06:28 we’re above $150,000 per coin, people
06:31 are going crazy and maybe the long-term
06:33 sustainable demand is not quite there
06:35 yet. I don’t want people to just blindly
06:38 be buying huge amounts of Bitcoin above
06:40 $150,000 per coin if they don’t have the
06:42 stomach to ride the the ups and downs
06:46 until it’s consistently higher. And we
06:48 could go for a period of 6 months or 12
06:50 months or something like that. You know,
06:52 let’s say Bitcoin goes up to 100
06:53 somewhere between 168,000 and
06:56 220,000. and then you know someone buys
06:58 way up in the thin air up there and then
07:02 they have to spend 6 or 12 months
07:03 underwater before Bitcoin starts
07:04 marching up into the hundreds of
07:06 thousands of dollars. That’s just
07:07 painful. It’s uh so I try to avoid uh
07:10 people having to go through that. So
07:12 I’ll probably recommend below 110,000
07:15 buy as much as you can lump sum up
07:17 front. between 110,000 and 120,000. Buy
07:21 50% of whatever you’re planning to buy
07:23 immediately and buy the remainder over
07:25 some time period just buying the same
07:27 amount every week on River with a
07:30 recurring purchase and above probably,
07:33 you know, $120,000. The easy thing is
07:35 just to tell everybody just dollar cost
07:37 average. Uh but again, the reason I
07:39 don’t like dollar cost averaging uh is
07:41 because it makes you determine for what
07:43 time period and especially if you have
07:45 an upfront lump sum amount you want to
07:47 buy, then it’s hard to decide how long
07:50 that time period should be because you
07:52 know you want to get it invested in
07:54 Bitcoin sooner rather than later. But uh
07:56 if you’re dollar cost averaging, you got
07:57 to decide is that over four weeks, is
07:59 that over 6 months? Is that over a year?
08:01 Is that over 18 months? It’s just hard
08:03 to decide which is why I tend to not
08:05 like that approach. Uh but anyway, uh
08:08 just wanted to provide some perspective.
08:10 Right now we are below $110,000 per
08:12 coin. So I think the decision is easy
08:14 which is buy as much Bitcoin as you can
08:16 buy it immediately. Don’t think about
08:19 you know don’t go through the rigomeroll
08:20 of thinking about dollar cost averaging
08:22 because I think where we are right now
08:25 uh it’s better for the long-term uh
08:28 total gains if you just buy whatever you
08:30 can instead of worrying about dollar
08:32 cost averaging and things like that. But
08:33 this is not financial advice. I don’t
08:35 know. I’ve just read a ton about Bitcoin
08:38 and I’ve been involved
08:40 uh as an owner of Bitcoin for eight
08:42 years now and so I’ve been through lots
08:43 of ups and downs in the last eight years
08:45 and that just feels like what feels
08:47 right to me based on my historical
08:50 perspective. So I hope that helps. Have
08:52 a great day everyone. Thanks.