Is there an 84% chance that bitcoin drops to $80,000?

Is there an 84% chance that Bitcoin will
drop down to $80,000 per coin? I don’t
think so. But why is 84% the magic
number? Well, with any investment,
there’s probabilities. And you can
actually plug the statistical
probabilities of Bitcoin into ChatGpt or
any other AI engine, and it will tell
you the probabilities that something
would need to happen in order for it to
make economic sense to do that thing.
So, I just asked ChatGPT. I uploaded the
entire price history of Bitcoin and said
when Bitcoin is down as much as it is
down now from the all-time high, which
is about 25%, 24.6 or 24.8%. When it’s
down, let’s call it 25% from the
all-time high, what is the probability
it drops an additional 16%. Which is
what it would need to to hit $80,000.
Now, the way chap GPT calculates that,
if it does drop that far, it calculates
in the benefit of buying Bitcoin for
cheaper. So between here and a million
dollars, instead of a 10x upside, you
get like a 12.5x upside because you’re
buying Bitcoin at $80,000 and it goes to
a million rather than buying it at
$95,000 and it goes to a million. So if
you buy it cheaper, there’s a larger
economic upside. But the probability of
it hitting that has to be very high in
order to be worth giving up that
potential economic upside. Because if
you’re wrong, you miss out on 10 times
your money. the gain from 95,000 to a
million, you miss up on miss out on 100%
of that if you guess wrong. So according
to chat GPT, the probability that
Bitcoin would need to hit 80 $80,000
um would need to be 84% or more. They
said, “Look, purely from an economic,
you know, analysis perspective, if you
had greater than 84% certainty that
Bitcoin is going to hit $80,000 before
it goes to a million, then you
economically would wait. The probability
of Bitcoin actually hitting $80,000. Of
course, nobody knows, but it is a
radically smaller number than $80,000.
For example, if you look at the last
three years, Bitcoin has never been down
25% and gone on to to go down an
additional 15%. Never. That’s never
happened in the last 3 years. You have
to go back to four years or 5 years or
even farther back in Bitcoin’s history
to find any situation where Bitcoin has
been down 25% and then has additionally
dropped an additional 15%. You have to
go way back before the exchange traded
funds, the Bitcoin ETFs were approved,
way back to the early days of Bitcoin
where the volatility was much higher.
And even if you include all of those
early days with much higher volatility,
much uh greater downswings than exist
today, even if you include all of that,
the probability that Bitcoin would go
down an additional 16%
once it’s already down 25% is radically
lower than 84%. Even if you include all
of that original data, I would argue you
should not include any data prior to the
Bitcoin exchange traded funds approving
in April of uh sorry in January of 2024,
which is about 2 years ago. Because
prior to that, you didn’t have this
massive amount of institutional demand
from nation states, companies, treasury
companies buying up all the dips. You
had basically just random people like me
buying and selling Bitcoin. And that was
a lot more volatile back then. So in
today’s economy, especially post the
exchangeraded funds, Bitcoin is much
less volatile, which means in the last 3
years, literally 0% chance. If you’re
betting on the data from the last 3
years, there is a 0% chance that Bitcoin
has been down 25% and continues to drop
by an additional 15%. Literally, that’s
happened zero times. Uh that’s because
we’ve we’ve had zero price corrections
of 40%. 25% and an additional 15%.
That’s happened zero times. We’ve had
two price corrections of about 32% each,
maybe three 33% each, but that’s it. So
again, and even then, you didn’t have
the incredible institutional demand
buying up every dip that you have right
now. Even during the tariff tantrum in
April of 2025 or the whatever it was
that caused the dip in August of 2024,
those dynamics are not in play today.
Now, not that they couldn’t become in
play, but statistically it makes no
sense to wait. So, last night I bought
hundreds of thousands of dollars of
Bitcoin as a result of gold and silver
that I sold uh that I bought back in
2017 that I had just stored away a bunch
of different places. And finally, I
dragged it all out and I was like, screw
this. If Bitcoin’s on sale and it stays
on sale long enough, I’m going to take
it off the market because heck, I can
spend the rest of my life giving away
that Bitcoin for free to people, uh,
supporting charities I care about,
running political campaigns. I can do
whatever I want with that extra Bitcoin.
And if the marketplace is going to give
me that Bitcoin for cheap, I will let
the marketplace give me that Bitcoin for
cheap. So, I ran the probabilities and
there has to be an 84% chance that
Bitcoin’s going down to $80,000 for it
to make economic sense to wait. Now,
even if the probability was that high, I
still would not wait because I’m not
willing to give up the upside in
exchange for possibly getting Bitcoin
cheaper. I I would rather lock in a
guaranteed 10.5% upside or sorry 10.5x
upside to a million dollars than risk
and gamble trying to get a 12.5% upside.
If somebody gives me an almost
guaranteed 10.5 times my money but says
but if you wait you might lose it all
but you might get 12 times your money.
Screw that. I’m getting the 10.5x.
That’s huge. That’s more than a,000%
return. If somebody offers me a,000%
return, I’m not waiting to get 1,200%
return and then going to risk out on
missing all of it. Especially if the
probability that I’m going to fail is
84%. Or some, you know, ridiculously
large number. Again, on 84% odds that it
does uh that it would have to be that
high. You know, that’s that’s just
insane that the probability you get left
out in the cold, especially when the
probability over the last 3 years looks
more like 0%. That has dropped a
percentage that high. So that’s why I’m
buying Bitcoin now. I am not dollar cost
averaging. I am not buying it over time.
I am not easing into it. When I have
capital availability, I buy Bitcoin. I
think the odds are overwhelmingly in
favor of buying as much as you can now,
holding on to it for as long as
conceivably possible and not playing
games with trying to time it. If you
play games with trying to time the
market, you’re going to lose. It always
happens. And if you don’t have the
stomach to just buy it all up front like
I’m doing right now, fine. You can
dollar cost average by buying the same
amount every week or something like
that. Statistically speaking, you’ll end
up worse off. But at least you will buy
the Bitcoin over some period of time.
Whether that’s a month or two months or
however long you’ve decided to buy, you
know, if you’ve got $10,000 you want to
invest and you want to invest 1,000 a
week for 10 weeks, well, at least at the
end of that, you own the Bitcoin. You
might own it at a price significantly
higher than it is today, but at least
you’ll own the Bitcoin, which is way
better than waiting for some magic
number like $80,000 and then getting
left out in the cold. So bottom line
with all of this is unless there’s an
84% chance that Bitcoin is Let me start
over. Unless there’s an 84% chance that
Bitcoin goes to $80,000 per coin, you
should buy it right now. If the
probability is greater than 84% that it
goes to $80,000, which it is not, then
it makes sense to wait. The probability
is much lower than 84%. Over the last 3
years, Bitcoin’s never dipped that much.
And even over the last four or five
years or longer, the dips have
statistically been radically less than
84%. Which means statistically it makes
sense to buy as much Bitcoin as you can
right now and hold on for to it for as
long as conceivably possible. Which has
been my same advice all along and that
hasn’t changed.