Is $95,000 the “Bull’s Last Stand?”

the bull’s last stand. And why does
James Czech use that terminology
referring to the $95,000 level? And how
low could Bitcoin go if it breaks
$95,000.
All right, let’s unpack that. First of
all, James Czech is my favorite Bitcoin
analyst. I subscribe to $29 a month.
It’s the only analyst I subscribe to. I
find his information very helpful. Not
very helpful because it predicts exactly
what’s going to happen, but very helpful
because it explains why what is
happening is happening, which gives you
a lot more comfort when you understand
why it’s happening. It’s like having a
personal weatherman there telling you
what storm you’re in, how big it is, how
long it might last. You know, it’s just
it’s just a lot better than being in a
storm and having no idea is this a
hurricane, is this, you know, a
thunderstorm? Like, what am I even in?
So again, James Czech can’t always
predict the weather, but he can
generally tell you why we’re
experiencing what we’re experiencing,
how long it might last, things like
that. So James Czech has been referring
to $95,000 as the bull’s last stand for
a while now, for like probably the last
two months. And the reason he says that
is because if you look at the entire
trading history of Bitcoin, there’s a
pretty big gap between $80,000 and
$95,000 where very few people have
actually traded or bought or sold
Bitcoin in that gap. What that means is
last year in 2024 after the presidential
election there was a pretty strong run
from about 95,000 sorry from 75,000 up
to $90,000 or 95 let’s call it 75 to95
that happened very quickly. Very pe very
few people actually had time to transact
in that $80,000 to $95,000 range because
Bitcoin just wasn’t there very long. I
mean, in a matter of hours and days, it
shot straight through that level. Now,
it revisited that level down to about
$75,000 a little bit in April of 2025.
So, after the tariff tantrum where all
the stock market and everything else
went crazy for a little while, Bitcoin
dipped down to just under $74,000 for
like five minutes. It was very
short-lived and then it, you know, went
on a big run back up to all-time highs
again. But so we we spent a little bit
more time in that $80,000 to $95,000
level. We spent a little bit more time
in there with some trading activity, but
not a lot. So if you look at all the
times that Bitcoin has traded hands,
it’s there’s not a lot of activity
between 80,000 and 95,000. And what that
means is we don’t have credible evidence
that there is a ton of people who want
to buy Bitcoin between 80,000 and
95,000. And the reason we don’t have
that is because Bitcoin spent so little
time in that range that there just
literally wasn’t any time for Bitcoin to
spend any time trading in that range. So
we don’t have proof that people want a
bunch of 80 to $95,000 Bitcoin because
Bitcoin spent so little time there that
we just don’t have that evidence. So
that is uh causes from time to time
what’s called an air pocket. An air
pocket is a is a a range where an asset,
it doesn’t have to be Bitcoin, it could
be gold, silver, soybeans, you know,
stocks, whatever. It doesn’t matter what
it is. Anytime you have uh a a a asset
that has spent very little time in a
specific range, it creates an air
pocket. One second.
So sometimes, not always, when an asset
creates an air pocket like that, it ends
up filling in that air pocket later.
meaning spending some quality time in
that air pocket. Now, the problem is, of
course, you don’t know that’s going to
happen, and there are a lot of air
pockets that go unfilled, meaning the
the market never goes and revisits
those. So, you can’t rely on it. But
James Czech has been saying for a while
now that if we definitively break below
$95,000,
we’re probably going to revisit, you
know, the 80,000sish.
Now, here’s a couple problems there, and
I’m going to tell you why my
recommendation does not change based on
all of this in just a minute. So, the
problem with that paradigm of
definitively break is what does that
even mean? And even James Czech would
say he there’s there’s not a good
definition of what does it mean to
definitively break below $95,000.
Does that mean five minutes? No. Does
that mean a day? Does it mean a week?
Does this mean it spends a month
underneath 95? It’s not clear. It’s just
that if if it becomes clear that we’re
below $95,000 and it looks like we might
be there a while, then what happens is
we are in a range where we don’t have a
lot of historical evidence that people
want to buy Bitcoin in that range. We
have a lot of historical evidence that
they want to buy Bitcoin 95,000 and up
and a bunch of historical evidence that
they want to buy Bitcoin 80,000 and
down. We just don’t have a lot of
Bitcoin spent not much of its life
between the so-called ages of uh 80 and
95. It just zipped right through that
period. Um which means again when you
hit that air pocket, James Czech is
saying, “Hey, look, if we definitively
break below $95,000, there’s a good
chance we could touch 80,000.” And the
reason for that is because there’s just
not a lot of trading activity between 80
and 95 historically. That does not mean
there won’t be now, but there has not
been historically. And it’s hard to it’s
hard to have high conviction that you
know there that the uh that the price is
not going to drop further when we just
don’t have the historical data. Now, you
might be thinking, hey, if there’s an
air pocket that James Czech has been
talking about for a month or two now, uh
between 80 and 95, why don’t we all just
wait to buy Bitcoin at 80,000? Well, the
problem is there’s no way of knowing if
it’s going to go down there. Even James
Czech would have said, you know, his
odds historically have been 7030 that we
never visit that and it goes just
straight up. So, you certainly do not
want to bet on the 30% side of a 7030
bet when even James Czech himself is
saying if we definitively break below
$95,000, we’re probably headed into the
80s and even the low 80s. You don’t want
to bet on that because again
historically the exact same times James
Czech has been saying that he’s also
been saying that there’s a 70% chance we
won’t touch any of those numbers and we
won’t break below 95 at all. So again it
just makes no sense. Secondly, you can
never win by picking a number where an
asset has to go down that low. If I gave
you advice and nothing I give you, it’s
never financial advice, never investment
advice, tax advice, legal advice.
Nothing I give you is ever advice. This
is all just one random person’s opinion.
So, if I tried to tell you what is
everybody going to predict is going to
happen, then back in 2022, I would have
told you don’t buy Bitcoin until the
price hits 13,800.
Now, why was that? because practically
everybody on Twitter with all these
different economic models had all
figured out that the magic number where
everybody should buy Bitcoin was 13,800
and that the price of Bitcoin was going
to keep dropping until it hit 13,800.
We never hit 13,800. The lowest price
Bitcoin ever went in 2022 was 15,500.
thousands of dollars higher than 13,800
or at least whatever, you know, $1,700
higher, whatever that whatever that is.
Um, so we never hit that number. So the
smart people like me were gobbling up as
much Bitcoin as we possibly could at
20,000, 19,000, 15,000, your, you know,
15,000, 16,000, um, or high 15,000s. We
never got into the low 15,000s. All of
the numbers down there, I was buying at
all of them. I was buying in the
20,000s, the 30,000s, the the high
teens. I was buying as much Bitcoin as I
could because I knew that nobody knew
that the price was going to hit some
number or not hit some number. So, if I
told you right now, I was like, “Look,
if we definitively break below $95,000,
we’re going to hit 80.” Nobody knows
that. James Czech doesn’t know that.
Nobody knows that. James Czech’s job is
just to say, “Look, if that happens, you
need to know why it happened.” Just like
a weatherman is saying, “Look, if the
temperature drops suddenly tomorrow,
it’s probably because we got hit by a
cold front.” That way, when the
temperature drops, you don’t have to
wonder what happened. You need to know
that, hey, a cold front might come
through tomorrow. If it does,
temperature is going to drop. You know,
it’s a change in the pressure. It’s all
this other stuff. like don’t freak out,
it’s normal. So the same way James check
and everybody else for that’s a Bitcoin
analyst says look if we definitively
break below $95,000 whatever that means
is that days is that weeks is months I
don’t know whatever if we definitively
break break below 95,000 we could
revisit below 80,000s or somewhere in
the 80,000s again we don’t know that and
everybody who comes up with these
numbers that they’re going to wait and
buy when it hits a certain number
somehow they get cheated out of the
Bitcoin because they cheat themselves
out of the Bitcoin because it doesn’t
hit that number because as soon as
everybody thinks like let’s assume let’s
assume James Czech was the perfect
predictor of the future and he put out
on his newsletter that if we
definitively break below you know
$95,000 that we’re going to hit $80,000
and that’s the magic number. Well, guess
what happens? Everybody’s going to say,
“Hey, if everybody’s expecting to buy at
$80,000, I don’t want to miss out. So,
I’ll set my buy at $81,000.
Now, someone else is going to think if
everybody else is thinking they’re going
to frontr run that 80,000 by buying at
81,000, then I’m going to buy at 82,000
so I don’t miss out. Well, eventually
what happens is everybody bids that
number right back up until the till you
never hit 80,000 because everybody’s
trying to frontr run that number making
sure that they’re not the last one who
gets left out. And so, that’s why the
price goes higher. It’s the reason in
every marketplace supply and demand
works the way it does because everybody
in a marketplace who wants to buy
something could just wait for a cheaper
price. And the reason they don’t wait
for a cheaper price is they’re afraid
they’re not going to get the cheaper
price or they just have a need for
whatever it is right now and they don’t
have the luxury of time. With investing
like Bitcoin, you could always sit in US
dollars and watch your purchasing power
disappear by between 4% and 9% per year.
So yeah, you could be p, you know,
so-called patient watching your
purchasing power deteriorate in the US
dollar. And in doing so, you could wait
for a cheaper Bitcoin price. But if
everybody’s doing that, everybody’s
trying to frontr run you to make sure
that they’re not the one who doesn’t get
the cheap Bitcoin, which then pushes the
price of Bitcoin up. Same if you’re
selling Bitcoin and you’re like, I’m
going to wait for a higher price. The
reason people capitulate and just sell
anyway is they become afraid that their
higher price is not going to come. That
other people are going to be willing to
take a lower price than they do and that
they’re going to be sitting wanting to
sell something that they can’t sell
because they got too greedy wanting a
higher price. So the magic of the
marketplace is that supply and demand
always balance that way. that everybody
trying to front run on the downside and
front run on the upside and make sure
they don’t miss out. It all balances out
with a price right now of 95,500, which
was the price of Bitcoin when I started
this video, 95,500. The reason it’s not
lower is there’s too many people who
want Bitcoin who are not willing to risk
that it won’t go lower. The reason it’s
not higher, there are too many people
willing to sell Bitcoin that don’t want
to risk that it won’t go higher. That’s
supply and demand. And it works that way
for every stock, every bond, every
commodity, gold, silver, you know,
soybeans, rice, corn. It works that way
for all of them. Everybody is buying and
selling based on that. And supply and
demand always determines where that
midpoint is. So I am waiting for a
significant wire transfer in the six
figures. A six figure wire transfer from
SD Bullion because I shipped them last
week. a bunch of gold, not a bunch, but
a small amount of gold and silver I had
left over from 2017. And it turns out I
had bought more than I remembered buying
back in 2017. And although it’s
massively underperform Bitcoin, it has
gone up in value enough to push it into
the six figures. So, I’m waiting for a
six figure wire transfer from SD
Bullion. They said it might come in
today, but you know, the traditional
financial system, I don’t think it is. I
think it’s going to end up being Monday.
Nobody knows. But anyway, as soon as
that wire transfer hits from SD Bullion,
I am going to buy Bitcoin with it.
Absolutely. No matter the price, even if
the price is $94,000, which is $1,000
below the bull’s last stand of $95,000,
even if it’s 94, I’m going to buy it. Am
I going to wait for $80,000? No. Because
I’m not an idiot. And I’m smart enough
to know that nobody knows the future.
James Czech, while he’s the best best
weatherman in the world of Bitcoin to
tell you what might happen and the
probabilities and all of that, he
doesn’t know. Just like no weatherman
knows. And and look, if I were going to,
I don’t know, camp, you know, in a the
frozen tundra somewhere and I was
worried about rain, then I would bring
an umbrella. And if somebody was like,
well, you know, there’s a 70% chance
it’s not going to rain. It’s like, yeah,
there’s a 30% chance I freeze to death.
I’m not going to risk that. So, it makes
no sense in my opinion when Bitcoin is
almost guaranteed to go up by a factor
of 10, which is a th000%. It makes no
sense when the upside is a,000% to try
to capture another 15% on the downside
so that your upside percent is a little
bit more than a,000%. Your odd the odds
are absolutely stacked against you. If
you’re trying to time the market by
waiting for a lower price, you’re like,
“Okay, I’m just going to pass on this
thousand% gain almost guaranteed over
the next 10 years. I’m going to pass on
that thousand% gain in the hopes I can
buy Bitcoin $10,000 cheaper than today’s
price.” That is idiotic math. you plug
go plug that into Chad GPT and anything
and and ask them, hey, what percent
chance should I be willing to take to
give up a thousand% upside to try to get
$80,000 Bitcoin instead of $95,000
Bitcoin? And if you feed it the entire
price history of Bitcoin, it’s going to
say, “You’re an idiot. Buy the Bitcoin.”
because it’s going to tell you the
probability that Bitcoin drops by
another 15% when it’s already down 25%
is way lower than it would have to be to
make economic sense for you to play that
game. And whatever that threshold is,
and I posted a bunch of them online uh
earlier this week or last week of like
this is how certain you would have to be
for that to happen in order to feel
comfortable doing that. And the odds are
just completely not in your favor. So,
what am I going to do? Even though I
subscribe to James Czech, I’m, you know,
I read about his, you know, bull’s last
stand, $95,000. What does it mean to
definitively break below that level? All
of that. What am I going to do? I’m
going to buy as much Bitcoin as I
possibly could, as soon as I can, and
I’m going to sit on it for as long as
conceivably possible, because that is
the only way to win. You’re not going to
win by trying to time the market. You’re
not going to win by trying to pick pick
magic thresholds. That’s your perfect
buying opportunity. And look, if you
can’t stomach just buying, then set up a
recurring buy, which is called dollar
cost averaging, DCA. Dollar cost
averaging. Set up a recurring buy that
just buys you the same amount. $100,
$1,000, $5,000, however much. Buy the
same amount per week. Maybe it’s 50
bucks, maybe it’s $10. Buy the same
amount every week and just leave it on
indefinitely. If that’s how if that
makes you feel more comfortable, go for
it. What am I going to do? I’m going to
buy as much Bitcoin as I possibly can as
fast as conceivably possible because
that is the only way historically that
you end up with a lot of Bitcoin when
all the the dust settles. It’s the only
way I’ve ended up with a lot of Bitcoin
when the dust settles. So summary here,
the summary is James Czech has said
$95,000 is the bull’s last stand. If we
definitively break below $95,000, we
could drop to $80,000. But what does
definitively break below that mean?
It’s hard to tell. Nobody knows. And the
odds are absolutely against you
magically picking up a number and
deciding you’re going to buy Bitcoin at
that number because you’re either not
going to do it or it’s never going to
hit that number and you’re going to look
back and you’re going to think, I could
have bought Bitcoin at 95,500
and I didn’t. And everybody that’s
played that game ends up regretting it.
Don’t play that game. It’s simple. Buy
as much Bitcoin as you can as soon as
possible. it’s massively on sale right
now and hold on to it for as long as
conceivably possible. That is the only
definitive formula with Bitcoin or any
other asset that if you buy the right
assets and Bitcoin is that’s the only
definitive strategy that works.