Bitcoin may be about to enter euphoria. I would buy it before it does. Here are my thoughts.

00:01 Bitcoin may be about to enter the
00:04 euphoria phase, and I would buy it
00:06 before it does. If you don’t, uh, you’re
00:09 going to put both of us in the awkward
00:10 position of you wanting to buy more
00:13 Bitcoin in the smack middle of euphoria
00:16 and me telling you that there’s never a
00:18 bad time to buy Bitcoin, but it would
00:20 have been great if you didn’t wait for
00:22 the euphoria phase. So, um, it does not
00:25 feel like we are in the euphoria phase
00:27 yet. Typically the rule with euphoria is
00:30 when you’re in it, you know it because
00:32 nobody’s asking. When when you’re
00:34 actually in the euphoria phase, nobody
00:36 is asking are we in the euphoria phase
00:39 because it’s clear that you feel
00:41 euphoric and it’s uh and it’s great. Um,
00:45 so I don’t think we’re near a top in the
00:48 cycle to for Bitcoin, but um, we’re
00:51 getting close to the time every four
00:53 years when Bitcoin goes through a
00:55 temporary euphoria phase before it
00:57 continues uh, well before it typically
00:59 goes through a price correction and then
01:00 marches um, back up again. So why do
01:05 assets go through a euphoria phase? The
01:07 answer is because high-erforming assets
01:10 once they have been high-erforming long
01:12 enough, people start to believe that
01:15 they will be high performing forever as
01:17 a result of money. People start to
01:19 borrow money and buy the asset with
01:21 borrowed money. And this happens 100% of
01:24 the time uh with a high performing
01:27 asset. They will always go through these
01:28 ups and downs on the way up because that
01:31 is human psychology. Let me give you an
01:33 example. Let’s assume there’s a
01:35 hypothetical asset that goes up in value
01:37 1% per week. That’s a 52% return uh per
01:42 year, which is obviously way better than
01:44 say the the cost to borrow 6% 7% 8% or
01:49 9% on a whole equity line of credit or
01:52 something like that. So, as soon as
01:53 something goes up 1% a week for long
01:55 enough, people are going to start
01:56 thinking, “Oo, I should buy that with
01:58 borrowed money.” Then I’ll pay 8% on
02:02 borrowing the money. I’ll get a 52%
02:04 return. What could go wrong? Well, this
02:07 inevitably happens after a period of
02:09 time with any high performing asset.
02:10 It’s like a 100% correlation that if
02:12 enough time passes that
02:17 buying that asset with borrowed money
02:19 and soon more money is chasing the asset
02:22 than is sustainable based on market
02:25 demand based on actually market I
02:27 shouldn’t say demand because obviously
02:28 it’s always supply and demand. What I
02:30 mean is based on market adoption. So
02:32 there ends up being more demand for the
02:34 asset in addition to the adoption of the
02:37 asset which means the price of the asset
02:39 gets ahead of the realistic sustainable
02:42 price level based on the adoption of the
02:44 asset. This happened in 2011, 2013, 2017
02:50 and 2021. 2011 was sort of an early
02:53 anomaly. So normally people talk about
02:55 it as the Bitcoin four-year cycle and
02:58 it’s always the year after the
02:60 presidential election. It’s usually the
03:02 second half of the year after a
03:04 presidential election. Bitcoin tends to
03:06 go through a period of euphoria. Um, and
03:09 that has lined up again with
03:10 presidential elections in 2012, 2016,
03:12 and 2020. The year after that have has
03:15 been the sort of year, the second half
03:18 of the year after has been the year of
03:20 euphoria uh for at least part of that
03:22 year. So again, that would be 2013,
03:24 2017, 2021, and you know, 2025, which is
03:28 where we are. So, Bitcoin is within a
03:31 couple one or two percentage points of
03:32 the highest it’s ever been in history,
03:34 but it does not yet feel like we’ve gone
03:36 through the euphoria phase. So, what
03:38 happens in the euphoria phase? Well,
03:40 what happens in the euphoria phase is
03:42 people start looking back at the last,
03:44 you know, from the let’s say all of 23,
03:47 all of 24, and half of 25. They look at
03:49 back at the last 2 and 1/2 years and
03:50 they’re like, “Wait, it more than
03:52 doubled in 23, then it more than doubled
03:55 in 24, and we’re on track for Bitcoin to
03:58 more than double in 25.” Like, that’s a
04:00 lot of that’s a lot of return. 100% 100%
04:03 run 100%. I mean, that results in an
04:06 asset being worth more than eight times
04:08 what it started at at the beginning of
04:10 2023. So, Bitcoin started 2023 around
04:13 16,000 per coin. It was above 32,000 by
04:17 the end of ‘ 04. It got above uh sorry
04:21 by the end of 2023 is what I meant to
04:23 say. Then it got above, you know, call
04:26 it double that 64,000ish
04:28 by the end of 2024 and we’re on track to
04:32 have it above 128 by easily because
04:35 we’re like we could be days away from
04:37 128. Heck, we could hit 128 today. It’s
04:39 not impossible. I mean, we’re at 121,
04:43 122. it would take a not much of a
04:45 bounce to go to 128 and there we’ve
04:47 doubled the you know 20 the the at least
04:50 the average price in 2024 if not the end
04:53 of year price we would have a averaged
04:55 the price it was for most of 2024 so
04:57 anyway you’re looking at eight times
04:59 your money from the beginning of 2023 to
05:01 the end of 2025 in 3 years people are
05:03 going to look at that and they’re going
05:04 to say wow that’s a lot of return and
05:07 again people are going to start
05:08 borrowing money people are going to
05:09 start thinking that Bitcoin goes up
05:11 forever that 100% return is sustainable
05:13 which is not no asset can double forever
05:16 and they start using borrowed money. So
05:18 what does that mean for you? Well, what
05:20 first of all what it means is if you are
05:22 planning to buy more Bitcoin, it feels
05:25 like again I could be completely wrong
05:27 on this. This is not financial advice,
05:29 not legal advice, not accounting advice,
05:31 not tax advice, not any sort of not
05:34 investment advice, not any sort of
05:35 advice. This is just one person’s random
05:37 opinion. It feels like and that is which
05:40 is validated by the research by James
05:42 Czech, the one and only Bitcoin analyst
05:45 that’s really really worth following. Um
05:47 there’s some other good macro analysts
05:49 like Lyn Alden and others but James
05:51 Czech is in a complete league of his own
05:53 and all of the indicators would indicate
05:55 that where we are right now with Bitcoin
05:57 is not at a cycle top. So, none of the
05:60 indicators would indicate that we are
06:02 peaking right now and about to go
06:04 through a brutal bare market, which is
06:07 what typically happens after a period of
06:08 euphoria. And I’ll talk about what that
06:10 looks like in, you know, in a minute or
06:12 two here when I get to it. Um, so
06:15 according to James Jack and everybody
06:17 else, most people would say yes, now is
06:19 a good time to buy Bitcoin. But pretty
06:22 quick here, we’re going to kick into the
06:23 euphoria zone. The problem with the
06:25 euphoria zone is that’s when everybody
06:27 wants to buy Bitcoin because if you
06:30 don’t if you haven’t done the work to
06:32 study Bitcoin one second
06:36 if you haven’t done the work to study
06:37 Bitcoin and build your
06:40 uh
06:44 coin then what you are doing instead is
06:48 you are buying based on how you feel and
06:51 buying based on how you feel instead of
06:54 intellectual ual hard work tends to
06:56 result in people buying things and
06:57 selling things at the wrong time. So
06:59 they tend to buy assets in the euphoria
07:02 phase and then sell them at the bottom
07:04 of a bare brutal down market because
07:07 they feel awful. They feel awful when
07:09 their assets are down, so they sell them
07:10 when they’re down. And they feel amazing
07:12 when their assets are so they way more
07:14 of it when it’s way up, which is
07:16 obviously the opposite of what you’re
07:19 supposed to do in investing, which is
07:20 buy things when they’re on sale. And in
07:22 this case with Bitcoin, your goal is not
07:24 to sell it, but your goal is not to be
07:26 buying it at the most expensive price
07:28 conceivable. So, what’s likely to to
07:30 play out between now and the end of the
07:32 year is Bitcoin will likely very rapidly
07:35 in the next month or two here catapult
07:38 from uh 120,000 to 150,000 which point
07:43 the whole world will wake up and
07:44 everybody will be calling me saying hey
07:47 I told you I had already bought all the
07:48 Bitcoin I was planning to I think I want
07:51 to buy a bunch more. Now, that puts me
07:53 and you in an awkward position because
07:56 never going to tell you it’s a bad time
07:57 to buy Bitcoin because if you wait long
07:59 enough, it’s always a good time to buy
08:00 Bitcoin. What I will be thinking is why
08:03 didn’t you buy it at 120 or 122 instead
08:06 of 150 because at some point we will hit
08:10 a cycle top. Now, currently James Czech
08:13 would say he doesn’t know where that is.
08:15 Maybe it’s 150. Maybe it’s actually I
08:18 think that’s probably lower than he
08:19 would say. Let’s call it, you know, the
08:22 lowest end of the band where we could
08:24 hit a top is, again, this is purely
08:27 speculative, maybe 160 to 180. The upper
08:30 end of where we would hit a top is maybe
08:33 230, you know, call it 220 to 240. So,
08:36 sort of lower end of that maybe 160 to
08:38 180. Higher ends maybe, you know, 2 220
08:41 to 240,000 per coin. Um, you don’t want
08:45 to buy at the epic highest price because
08:49 then again, you’ll still be up in four
08:50 years, but who wants to wait four years?
08:52 That’s a long time. So, if you’re buying
08:55 right now, you’re probably almost
08:57 guaranteed to be up within two or three
08:60 years. Maybe never we never see 120,000
09:04 ever again. And you’re always up. Who
09:05 knows? But, uh, if you’re buying at 160,
09:08 180, certainly 220, 240, you’re probably
09:11 going to have to spend at least a year
09:13 or two underwater on your investment.
09:16 Now, the problem you’re probably
09:18 thinking is, why don’t I just wait? Why
09:20 don’t I wait and buy Bitcoin in the next
09:23 price correction? And the answer is
09:25 because we don’t know when that will
09:27 happen. We don’t know if that will
09:29 happen. And if it or when it does
09:32 happen, we don’t know how low the price
09:34 will go. So, let’s assume we go to peak
09:38 euphoria, which right now, James Czech
09:39 would probably say peak euphoria is
09:41 around $240,000 per coin. So, we double
09:44 we double in a series of two to three
09:47 months. Okay, that’s crazy. First of
09:49 all, that’s not sustainable. It can’t
09:50 just like keep going, you know, that
09:53 fast all the way with no price
09:55 corrections along the way. The nature of
09:56 assets is they go through price
09:58 corrections. if they any asset that goes
10:00 up that fast is going to go through
10:02 price corrections along the along the
10:03 way where it washes out the people that
10:06 were using leverage borrowed money they
10:08 lose their money you know there’s
10:10 wreckage along the way and the people
10:11 who hold on they’re all fine um but
10:14 let’s assume we do go to 240 and you’re
10:17 waiting because you’re thinking hey I’m
10:18 not going to buy at 122 I’m going to
10:21 wait for the next price correction okay
10:23 when are you going to buy it are you
10:25 going to buy it if it goes from 240 down
10:28 to 230 30. Is that what you’re going to
10:29 buy? Cuz the 230 is way higher than 122.
10:33 Are you going to wait for it to go down
10:34 to 180? That’s still way higher. Are you
10:37 going to wait for it to drop from 240 to
10:39 140? Well, 140 is still a lot higher
10:42 than 122, which you can buy it for right
10:44 now. Or are you going to wait for the
10:46 price to go lower than the price today
10:48 in the next bare market? It might, but
10:51 if so, how much? Are you going to wait
10:52 until it goes down from 122
10:56 down to 118? because you could have
10:58 bought it for that like two days ago or
11:00 are you going to wait for 110? I promise
11:03 you whatever price you’re waiting for,
11:05 the price of Bitcoin will dip to a price
11:08 just above that level and then it will
11:11 go back, you know, climb back to new
11:14 all-time highs above whatever the
11:16 highest it gets in 2025 or 2026 is. And
11:19 you will be waiting because you never
11:22 bought because you were waiting for the
11:25 price to hit 110 again and the price
11:28 only ever hit 112.
11:31 It happens all the time. Back in 2022,
11:33 the price was dipping after going
11:35 through a period of euphoria in 2021.
11:38 the price was going through a brutal
11:40 bare market in 2022 driven by a bunch of
11:42 stupidity, a bunch of borrowed money and
11:44 ultimately Sam Bankmanf freed who
11:46 scammed a bunch of people and stole a
11:48 bunch of money and um and you know as a
11:51 result people thought you know the whole
11:53 crypto industry was over and it was done
11:55 and all that sort of stuff. Of course it
11:57 wasn’t. Bitcoin always comes back no
11:58 matter what. That’s the beauty of it.
11:60 Um, but if you were waiting, there was a
12:03 ton of people all over Twitter. People
12:04 were like, “Look, in the price recovery
12:08 after 2017, it went down this much
12:11 percentage.” And so, they had all
12:12 figured out the same percentage meant
12:14 that Bitcoin was going to come down to
12:16 between uh 12,800 and 13,800. So, people
12:20 all over Twitter are bragging about how
12:22 cheap they’re going to buy Bitcoin at
12:24 $13,800.
12:26 Well, the price dipped from $69,000 down
12:30 to 15,500, which is a much bigger price
12:33 correction than I would anticipate ever
12:35 happening again. We live in a new the
12:37 age of exchange traded funds. Obviously,
12:39 we don’t have Sam Begman free running
12:41 around scamming everybody, all that sort
12:42 of stuff. But it was a brutal price
12:44 correction. But all the people waiting
12:46 for the price to hit 13,800 did not buy
12:50 at 15,500. They were all convinced they
12:53 were going to get a little bit more of a
12:55 discount. And now they’ve missed out on
12:57 what? Seven times their money. So they
12:60 missed out on a 700% return because they
13:03 wanted a 10% cheaper, 20% cheaper. And
13:07 they missed out on a 700% return. Don’t
13:09 play that game. People are constantly
13:10 playing that game. They’re constantly
13:12 losing. People are constantly telling
13:13 me, “But it seemed expensive.” So I was
13:16 waiting for the price to go down. And
13:17 then I was like, “Well, did it go down?”
13:18 Well, yeah. Well, did you buy it? Well,
13:20 no. because I was waiting for it to go
13:21 down a little more. And no matter how
13:24 low the price dips, you’re going to
13:26 think it still might go down some more.
13:29 So, I better just wait a little bit more
13:30 and then you don’t buy it. And then
13:32 boom, there’s 700% return that you
13:34 didn’t get. Sorry about that. You
13:36 shouldn’t have played that game. Don’t
13:37 outsmart yourself. Happens all the time.
13:40 Please don’t do that. Um, so easy
13:42 solution is buy as much Bitcoin as you
13:44 can. Hold on to it for as long as
13:46 conceivably possible. It’s the same
13:48 strategy that’s always worked for
13:49 everybody that’s ever done anything in
13:51 Bitcoin is buy as much as you can. Hold
13:53 on to as long as as as possible. And if
13:55 you’re considering buying more Bitcoin
13:57 in 2025 or 2026, in my opinion, I would
14:00 go ahead and do it. Go ahead and get it
14:02 out of the way. Do not wait for the
14:04 euphoria phase to buy Bitcoin because in
14:07 the euphoria phase, you’re going to want
14:09 to buy Bitcoin really bad because it
14:11 feels great, but you’ll also be buying
14:13 it at 150, 160, 180,000 a coin and then
14:17 you’re going to be stuck going through a
14:19 bare market and none of us wants that.
14:21 Um, so please don’t put yourself in that
14:24 position. Uh it’s bad for you, it’s bad
14:27 for me, it’s bad for all of us. And uh
14:29 it’s a lot better if you just buy it
14:31 before the euphoria really kicks in
14:33 because, you know, it’s just better for
14:35 everybody that way. Uh so anyway, I
14:37 think we probably will go through a
14:39 significant period of euphoria in the
14:41 second half of this year. Uh maybe even
14:43 into 2026, I don’t know. But the best
14:45 time to buy Bitcoin is before that
14:47 euphoria so that you’re not stuck trying
14:49 to guess whether you’re buying it at at
14:51 the super expensive top. uh it’s better
14:53 to just buy it before the euphoria
14:55 happens. It just makes life easier for
14:57 you, makes it easier for me and all
14:59 around everything’s better. And that way
15:01 you can ride through the euphoria
15:02 feeling great, but when the price
15:04 cracks, you’re like, I don’t care. You
15:05 know, the price drops from 180 down to
15:08 140, you’re like, I don’t care. I bought
15:10 it at 120, so it doesn’t matter. Uh a
15:13 lot better to be in that position than
15:15 to be paying it all the way up up into
15:18 and through the peak of euphoria.
15:20 Everybody ends up doing that and it’s
15:22 just not fun when the price correction
15:24 comes and then you’re stuck being down
15:27 on your investment for a year or
15:28 something like that and you could have
15:30 avoided all of that by not waiting for
15:32 the euphoria to buy. As always, hope
15:34 it’s all helpful. I’m here for anything
15:36 you need. Message me if I can be of
15:38 assistance. Have a great day, everyone.