Bitcoin’s Price Going Up And Down And Up And Down A Lot Is Actually A Good Thing

00:02 Hey everyone. You probably think
00:04 that Bitcoin going up and down and up
00:06 and down and up and down in price is a
00:08 bad thing, but it’s actually a blessing.
00:10 And I want to explain why. So, as the
00:12 price of any asset goes up, there are
00:15 people who want to get on and get off at
00:17 different places. So, um last year I
00:20 went, uh when I was in Dubai for a
00:22 Bitcoin conference, I went to the Burj
00:24 Khalifa, which is the the tallest
00:26 building in the world. And I can’t
00:28 remember what the top observation I went
00:29 to like the very top observation floor
00:31 that you can go to and it’s like 157
00:33 floors up or something. It was something
00:34 crazy. Anyway, well, let’s use that as
00:37 an example. Let’s think about the
00:38 elevator on the Burj Khalifa. And let’s
00:41 assume that the elevator actually worked
00:42 where it could stop at any floor. Let’s
00:45 also assume anytime anyone inside or
00:48 outside the elevator pushes a button
00:51 that the elevator has to either go back
00:54 and get the person or has to go back and
00:56 let them out wherever it is. So that’s
00:58 the way the Bitcoin price works, which
00:60 is if somebody wants to buy it
01:03 or somebody wants to sell, it pushes the
01:05 price down. If somebody wants to buy, it
01:07 pushes the price up. Now obviously it
01:09 takes a lot of people buying at the same
01:10 time to push it up. takes a lot of
01:12 people selling at the same time to push
01:13 the price down, but that’s the way it
01:15 works. So, the reason it is valuable for
01:18 Bitcoin to go up and down a lot or be
01:21 what’s called rangebound, which means
01:23 it’s bouncing up and down and up and
01:24 down in a relatively defined range, or
01:27 it’s sometimes called trading sideways.
01:30 The reason it’s valuable to if it’s
01:31 trading sideways is because it
01:34 establishes a new floor for the price at
01:37 which people want to be on or off the
01:39 elevator. Let me explain.
01:43 Okay, so last year 2024, we spent seven
01:46 months with Bitcoin bouncing back and
01:48 forth between $55,000 and $70,000. Now,
01:51 you may have thought that that was a
01:54 hugely frustrating and painful process,
01:56 which it kind of was. I mean, I I’m
01:58 right there with you. It’s painful when
01:59 something that should be going up is
02:02 going sideways for 7 months before it
02:03 then radically goes up. But the truth is
02:06 there was a whole lot of people who
02:08 wanted to get on or off at those prices.
02:11 So let’s assume you know in a 157 floor
02:14 building like the Burj Khalifa um at
02:17 least I can’t remember how high the
02:18 observation deck was. That’s the number
02:20 that stuck in my head anyway. And let’s
02:22 assume you know for every floor it’s
02:24 like $10,000. So it’s like we’re on the
02:26 fifth floor, the sixth floor. The
02:28 seventh floor now back to the sixth
02:30 floor. Up to the seventh floor. Nope.
02:31 Back to the fifth floor. Up to the sixth
02:33 floor. Back to the fifth floor. up to
02:35 the seventh floor, back to the sixth
02:36 floor, and we did that for seven months.
02:38 Well, the benefit of that is that every
02:40 conceivable person in the world who
02:43 wants to get on or off the elevator
02:45 between the fifth floor and the seventh
02:46 floor had seven months to do that last
02:49 year. If you wanted to buy Bitcoin in
02:51 the 50,000s or sell Bitcoin in the
02:55 60,000s, you had seven solid months to
02:58 do that last year. And what that means
03:00 is when finally there’s a catalyst where
03:03 market adoption finally pushes the price
03:05 higher, it’s much more sustainable
03:08 because everybody who wanted to get off
03:10 at a higher price or or wanted to buy at
03:13 a lower price has has had the chance to
03:14 do that in that range. So what if
03:17 tomorrow the price shoots from 106,000 a
03:21 coin to 250,000 just in a day? Boom.
03:24 That’s not going to happen. It takes
03:25 longer for that something like that to
03:26 happen. Let’s assume it happened in a
03:28 day. The first thing that would happen
03:30 is you would be completely euphoric. You
03:31 would think, “This is amazing. I love
03:33 it. This is the best thing ever because
03:34 all your Bitcoin would be up, you know,
03:37 150% from its current price. But what
03:39 would immediately happen after that is
03:41 all of the people who were willing to
03:43 get off at any of the floors between
03:46 here and 250,000 would start selling.
03:50 So, for example, you know, I’ve been
03:52 saying for a while now, at some point,
03:54 I’m going to buy a Tesla Model Y, the
03:57 latest Juniper edition of the Tesla
03:59 Model Y, and but I don’t want to pay
04:01 more than half a Bitcoin for it. So, you
04:04 know, if that car costs, I don’t know,
04:06 60 with with full self-driving and
04:08 everything. Let’s say it costs $70,000,
04:11 $60,000, I don’t know what. Well, that
04:13 means somewhere between 120 and 140,000
04:16 a coin, someone like me wants to
04:19 liquidate half of a Bitcoin and buy a
04:21 Tesla model. Why? Because my family
04:23 needs another vehicle cuz one of my kids
04:25 is turning 16. They’re getting a job. We
04:27 need another vehicle like and I want to
04:29 drive a Tesla and I’ve always drive
04:31 driven old junk cars and at some point,
04:34 you know, Teslas are super cool and they
04:36 drive you everywhere. full self-driving.
04:38 Like, it’s just really cool that you can
04:40 literally not touch the steering wheel
04:42 or the pedals and the car will take you
04:43 anywhere. So, if we shot tomorrow to
04:46 $250,000 instantly, the problem is that
04:50 means there’s a bunch of selling
04:51 pressure that has yet to unwind. There’s
04:54 people like me out there thinking,
04:56 “Uh-oh, wow, that happened fast. I guess
04:58 I ought to get around to picking what
05:00 Tesla Model Y 2025 Juniper Edition I’m
05:03 going to buy.” It might take me a week
05:05 or two to figure that out. But the point
05:07 being is there is half a Bitcoin in
05:09 selling pressure out there waiting
05:11 unless I decide to finance it. I’ll
05:13 probably finance it. That’s sort of
05:14 borrowing US dollars and saving Bitcoin.
05:16 So, I’ll probably finance it. But let’s
05:18 assume I wasn’t going to finance it and
05:20 I was going to straight up buy a Tesla.
05:23 Well, that means there’s half a Bitcoin
05:24 that someone like me is planning to sell
05:26 that has not happened yet. which means
05:28 that $250,000 price is not necessarily
05:32 stable because as the, you know, the
05:34 elevator shoots all the way up to the
05:36 250th floor. Again, I know in my
05:38 example, the Burj Khalifa doesn’t go
05:40 that high, but let’s assume it did. You
05:42 know, it shoots up to the 250th floor.
05:45 There’s a bunch of people punching those
05:46 elevator buttons saying, “No, I wanted
05:48 to get I was willing to get off lower
05:49 than this.” And that’s going to push the
05:52 price back down. Now, everybody’s going
05:53 to try to get off at the 250th floor.
05:56 Uh, but as people get off, the the
05:58 elevator is going to go down because the
06:00 selling pressure is going to push it
06:01 down until the buying pressure holds it
06:03 back up. So, I know it is super
06:05 frustrating for Bitcoin to be rangebound
06:08 or trade sideways or grinding sideways
06:10 or whatever you want to call it, but
06:12 it’s actually extremely valuable for the
06:14 asset because it means a lot of the very
06:16 early people that uh you know that
06:18 bought Bitcoin at $10 or $10,000 or
06:21 $1,000. They had seven months last year
06:24 to get off the train, you know, buy
06:26 whatever they were going to buy, put an
06:28 expansion on their house, buy a boat,
06:30 buy a car, send their kids to college,
06:32 whatever it is that might cause them to
06:34 liquidate Bitcoin, they had 7 months to
06:36 do that last year between 55,000 and
06:39 70,000. So the same is true now. The
06:41 longer we spend bouncing between 90,000
06:44 and 110,000,
06:46 the more opportunity. It’s like, hey,
06:48 you want to get off of the ninth floor,
06:49 10th floor, 11th floor? How about the
06:51 ninth floor? 10th floor, 9th floor, 11th
06:53 floor, 10th floor, 9th floor, 11th
06:55 floor, 10th floor. Like, however long we
06:58 stay in the 90,000 to $110,000 range,
07:02 that is how much opportunity everybody
07:05 that wants to buy in the ‘9s gets to
07:07 buy. Everybody wants to get off above
07:09 100,000 gets off above 100,000, which
07:12 ultimately makes it just a lot more
07:14 stable. it sort of builds a foundation
07:18 that is a lot more sustainable than if
07:20 it’s just bouncing around up and down,
07:22 sort of shooting up, shooting down. So,
07:25 an example of this was 2017 and 2011. In
07:28 both 2017 and in 2011, the price of
07:32 Bitcoin shot up. Sorry, what I said
07:34 2017, I didn’t mean 2011. I meant 2021.
07:38 Sorry. Same thing happened in 2013. The
07:40 last years of bull markets, the
07:43 strongest bull markets, which is every
07:45 four years, which should be this year,
07:46 but it was 2013, 2017, 2021 should be
07:49 again in 2025, you know, four-year cycle
07:52 is sort of Bitcoin’s natural cycle due
07:54 to the having and other factors. If you
07:56 want to understand that, read the
07:57 bullish case for Bitcoin by VJ Boya. Uh
08:00 that is the the bullish case for Bitcoin
08:03 by VJ Boya. If you want to understand
08:06 the four-year having cycle and why
08:08 Bitcoin goes up and down on its way up
08:10 in the long term, not just in sort of
08:12 the choppy days and months, but why it
08:14 goes up in these cycles over four years.
08:17 Um, and this should be the the best of
08:19 the four-year cycle. If you want to
08:21 understand that, read BJ Voyati’s book,
08:23 The Bullish Case for Bitcoin, and you’ll
08:26 understand exactly why that is. My point
08:28 is in 2013, 2017, and 2021, at the very
08:33 end of those bullish cycles, the price
08:35 shot up so radically. I mean, literally
08:38 going from a few thousand to $20,000 in
08:41 2017 or from going from, you know, a low
08:44 of four, four, five, whatever thousand
08:47 in 2020
08:49 up to 69,000 in 2021. with those radical
08:53 price gains, there’s just not a lot of
08:55 opportunity for people to get off or on
08:57 the train. And so what ends up happening
08:59 is you end up topping out. You end up
09:01 spiking super high, but then you know,
09:04 not crashing crashing, but you end up
09:06 having a pretty big price correction off
09:08 that incredible high because that
09:10 incredible high just was not sustainable
09:13 because it went up so fast that there
09:15 were a bunch of people willing to get
09:16 off at those prices. They just were. One
09:19 second.
09:23 So, nothing would make me happier than
09:25 to grind sideways or trade sideways at
09:29 any price that’s above $90,000.
09:33 I certainly don’t want to go back to
09:34 grinding sideways between 55,000 and
09:36 70,000 because we already did that.
09:39 We already did that. So, I don’t want to
09:40 do any more of that. I feel like if
09:42 anybody wanted to get on in the 50s or
09:44 off in the 60s, they had seven months
09:46 last year and I don’t want to repeat
09:47 that. If we end up grinding sideways
09:50 between 90 and 110 or between 120 and
09:54 140 or between 180 and 220,
09:57 that is a very good sign because it
09:59 means the ability to maintain and
10:01 sustain those prices is much higher than
10:04 if we all wake up tomorrow and Bitcoin
10:06 just goes on an insane tear just
10:09 shooting for the stars, which again
10:11 feels great. It feels euphoric, but it
10:13 also the faster it goes up, the faster
10:16 in the near term it can come back down.
10:18 Now, long term it doesn’t matter because
10:20 long term it’s going to go up and up and
10:21 up and long term it’ll go past a million
10:24 dollars a coin and probably way past a
10:26 million dollars a coin. So, in the long
10:27 term it doesn’t matter, but in the short
10:28 term um you know, you want that trading
10:32 sideways. You want that grinding because
10:34 it it establishes a new floor for what
10:36 this asset is worth. and then we can
10:38 build on a much more solid foundation
10:40 than if we just shot for the moon in a
10:42 day. Uh so anyway, hopefully that
10:44 perspective is helpful and hopefully it
10:46 helps you appreciate it when Bitcoin
10:48 just seems to grind and it’s up again,
10:50 down again, up again, down again, up
10:51 again, down again and you’re like, “Oh
10:53 my gosh, this roller coaster is giving
10:55 me nausea.” The answer is no. It’s doing
10:57 a really good job of getting everybody
10:58 who wants to get on or off an
11:01 opportunity to do that to set a really
11:03 strong floor so that the next move price
11:06 move