Here is MY PLAN for 2025 and 2026, based on what I think is going to happen with bitcoin

00:00 Here is my plan for what I’m going to do
00:03 in 2025 and 2026 based on the price of
00:06 Bitcoin. First of all, 100% of my liquid
00:09 assets are in Bitcoin. That goes both
00:12 for the money I live on as well as my
00:15 charitable giving funds. So, I’m like
00:17 100% Bitcoin. Now, my wife manages a
00:20 small uh emergency reserve that is not
00:23 in Bitcoin. Uh, and that was set up in
00:25 2014 when Bombgar Corporation sold. And
00:27 I knew I had a very high risk tolerance.
00:30 And I knew that, uh, I have a very high
00:32 risk tolerance, just to say it twice.
00:35 So, I wanted to make sure that if I
00:36 completely screwed up absolutely
00:38 everything, which thankfully I have not,
00:40 uh, but that if I did, our children
00:42 would not go hungry. And obviously, I
00:44 get my paycheck from Prosper and I’m
00:48 full-time employed with Prosper, so I
00:49 have a job, too. Um, anyway, so here’s
00:52 my plan for 2025. in 2026. So, because
00:54 my net worth including my charitable
00:56 giving funds are 100% in Bitcoin, that
00:60 means the wealth I have both to live and
01:03 to uh give away money is denominated in
01:06 Bitcoin. So, we’re going to use just
01:09 round numbers of 114,000 is the price of
01:13 Bitcoin. So, what am I doing in 2025 and
01:15 2026? I’m living my life like Bitcoin is
01:19 worth $114,000.
01:21 And with the price of Bitcoin changes,
01:23 that will change. So right now, I feel
01:26 like I can afford nice vacations. I can
01:28 afford my Tesla. I can afford basically
01:31 anything I want to do. At $114,000
01:34 per coin, I can do absolutely everything
01:36 I want to do relatively aggressively.
01:39 Still can’t get crazy. Got to be
01:41 reasonable. Um, you know, I drive a
01:44 Tesla, not a Lamborghini, right? I mean,
01:46 I’m a rational person. So, I live a
01:49 relatively modest lifestyle with
01:52 relatively modest things, but given my
01:55 modest tastes, I can basically uh
01:57 splurge pretty aggressively with Bitcoin
02:00 at 114,000. Like, I can eat at whatever
02:03 restaurants I want. I can tip, you know,
02:05 I I tend to tip very aggressively. I can
02:09 tip a lot, you know, which often
02:11 includes tips of like 50% or 100% or
02:15 150% of the price of the meal. Um, so
02:17 what is going to happen? I don’t know
02:19 what’s going to happen in 2025 and 2026
02:21 with Bitcoin. Bitcoin could dip to
02:24 $80,000.
02:25 I don’t know. I don’t think it will, but
02:27 it could. Um, Bitcoin could go up to
02:30 $180,000. I think that’s more likely.
02:33 There’s no way of predicting that. But I
02:34 will live cons, you know, within my
02:37 means. And the means I have to live are
02:40 denominated in Bitcoin. So that will
02:42 determine what that is. So $114,000
02:44 Bitcoin. Obviously, I’m feeling very
02:46 good about my finances and very good
02:48 about everything. And that will only get
02:50 better on the way to a million dollars
02:52 per coin. You know, if a h 100,000 a
02:54 coin makes me feel great about my
02:56 finances, which it does, then a million
02:59 dollar a coin makes me feel 10 times as
03:01 good about my finances, which it one day
03:03 will. Same with my charitable giving. At
03:06 my charitable giving level at $114,000
03:09 per Bitcoin, I am relatively aggressive
03:12 with my ability to give away money. Um,
03:16 I spend, you know, on charitable causes.
03:19 I spend at least $25,000 a month. per
03:24 month. Literally per month, I am giving
03:26 away ballpark call it $25,000 a month to
03:30 various causes from Christian missions
03:33 to uh church to uh a lot of efforts
03:37 related to the uh education and
03:40 onboarding of people to Bitcoin. But at
03:42 114,000 per coin, I can give away
03:46 $25,000 per month for a very long time
03:49 of charitable giving funds. Now, if the
03:51 price of Bitcoin starts to dip, I got to
03:53 rein that in a little bit. So, maybe
03:55 instead of 25,000 a month being my
03:57 charitable giving budget, maybe I’ve got
03:59 to cut back to 20,000 a month. So,
04:01 Bitcoin did dip to $80,000 per coin. Um,
04:06 which is a 33% price correction off of
04:09 120. Obviously, we went up to 123. So,
04:11 that would have to be even a little bit
04:13 more than a, you know, 33% price
04:14 correction. But, if we dip to 80,000, I
04:17 would, first of all, I’d ride it out. I
04:19 mean, I wouldn’t make any changes to my
04:20 charitable giving over the first few
04:21 months. But if it became clear that we
04:23 were in a long-term bare market and we
04:26 were not going to see six-figure Bitcoin
04:27 for a long time, like a year, then yeah,
04:30 I would have to be a little more
04:31 conscious about what I’m doing with my
04:33 charitable giving funds. I would not
04:34 want to be burning through $25,000 uh US
04:38 dollars of Bitcoin every month with
04:40 Bitcoin at 80,000. I can afford to do
04:42 that at Bitcoin at 114. Um, likewise, if
04:46 the price goes up, I get more aggressive
04:48 in my charitable giving. So, if the
04:50 price goes to $200,000 a coin, I can
04:53 ramp my charitable giving from $25,000 a
04:55 month to 35 or $40,000 per month. I’m
04:59 always just calculating, okay, what is
05:01 the price of Bitcoin? How many, you
05:04 know, how much Bitcoin do I have to work
05:05 with in my charitable funds? How much
05:07 Bitcoin do I have to work with with my
05:09 personal funds? And how long does that
05:12 Bitcoin need to last? In both cases, I’m
05:14 trying to make that Bitcoin last for the
05:16 rest of my life. Now, I’m constantly
05:18 buying more Bitcoin. So, that gets
05:20 easier and easier over time as I buy my
05:22 more Bitcoin. But, I want the ability to
05:25 be able to live the rest of my life on
05:27 just the Bitcoin I have. And I want the
05:30 ability to give charitably very
05:32 aggressively for the rest of my life
05:34 with just the Bitcoin I have. Now,
05:36 hopefully, you know, I have substantial
05:38 stock in Prosper. Um, and hopefully that
05:42 will be liquid at some point in the
05:43 future, which would, you know, make my
05:45 net worth much much much much higher
05:47 than it is today. Um, but that is an
05:50 unknown. The the timing of that is
05:52 unknown. Even though Prosper is a very
05:54 valuable company, it is not liquid,
05:56 which means I cannot use Prosper stock
05:58 to buy things right now. But at some
06:00 point in the future if Prosper goes
06:02 public or you know there is some other
06:05 uh liquidity event then well first of
06:08 all it it means if there’s liquidity
06:10 event that results in me having getting
06:11 US dollars I will immediately convert
06:13 those to Bitcoin. Um, but regardless, if
06:16 my net worth increases substantially,
06:18 I’ll do the same thing, which is
06:19 probably modestly ramp up my live
06:22 personal expenses from a lifestyle
06:24 perspective and aggressively ramp up my
06:27 charitable giving because my charitable
06:29 giving is I’m can afford to be more
06:32 aggressive on a percentage basis with
06:34 those funds than I can with personal
06:35 funds just because personal funds has to
06:37 support six people and charitable giving
06:39 is coming out of a relatively large pot
06:42 uh and that is 100% denominated in
06:44 bitcoins. has done really well, but I
06:46 don’t know what’s going to happen in bit
06:48 with Bitcoin in 2025 or 2026. Just like
06:51 the the two videos I recorded earlier
06:53 today, I’m in the same camp of I think
06:55 there’s between a 50% and a 60 51% and
06:58 60% chance. So, greater than 50, but
07:01 just barely. I think we’re past the
07:03 four-year cycles. I think we’ll probably
07:05 grind up from here with various price
07:08 corrections of 33% along the way. And if
07:11 we get a big price rise, you know, a
07:13 sudden spike in the price of Bitcoin,
07:15 you know, to $200,000, yeah, I can see,
07:18 you know, or let’s call it 220, 240.
07:21 Yeah, if we get a price, you know, a
07:23 sudden rise to $240,000,
07:25 absolutely, I can see a 50% price
07:27 correction after that back to 120. So,
07:30 who knows? Um, all I can do is what
07:33 everyone does, which is you adjust your
07:36 spending based on your perception of
07:39 your earnings ability and your wealth.
07:41 And you adjust those to try to make sure
07:43 you don’t run out of money. And that’s
07:45 what I do with Bitcoin. Since I’m 100%
07:47 Bitcoin for both personal funds and
07:49 charitable funds, I adjust my personal
07:52 expenditures based on how much Bitcoin I
07:54 have and how long it needs to last. I’m
07:56 45 years old, so I would like my Bitcoin
07:59 to last for at least another 55 years.
08:01 Um, my kids already know that they’re
08:03 not going to inherit a lot of money. Uh,
08:06 my my will is set up, and my kids know
08:08 this, to cover their health care and
08:11 education, and if there’s money left
08:13 over, to cover their kids healthcare and
08:15 education. But at no point do my kids
08:18 end up with a just a big lump sum of
08:20 money smack in their lap. Um, I’m not
08:23 opposed to people who do that. I just
08:25 think uh you know you got to really
08:27 really really work hard to manage
08:30 incentives because people who have a ton
08:32 of money that suddenly falls in their
08:33 lap tend to not behave well. I’ve just
08:35 known a lot of rich people over my days
08:38 and the ones who just gave their kids a
08:40 bunch of money uh that tended to not go
08:43 well. Um but I want to be able to very
08:46 aggressively give away money for a very
08:48 long time. Um, so anyway, on my personal
08:50 experience expenses, I’m just monitoring
08:53 that to make sure that they last for 55
08:54 years and that there’s plenty left over
08:57 to pay for my kids’ healthcare and
08:58 education and my grandkids healthcare
09:00 and education and I plan to give the
09:03 rest away. Um, and as far as charitable
09:05 giving funds, uh, they only need to last
09:07 as long as I do. Um, my view is I earn
09:10 that money and so I will give it away.
09:12 And if my kids want to give away a bunch
09:14 of money, they will earn a bunch of
09:15 money themselves and they will give
09:17 away. But the people who are best at
09:19 allocating capital are the people who
09:21 earned it. And in my case with me and my
09:23 wife, we earned the money that is on our
09:25 charitable charitable giving funds. And
09:28 so I fully intend to give all of that
09:30 money away. Uh because again, I think
09:32 whoever earns the money tends to have
09:34 the best ability to allocate that
09:37 capital to good causes. Um so anyway,
09:40 that is the plan. Um it’s worked well so
09:43 far and that is the plan for the long
09:45 haul. So, don’t try to predict the price
09:47 of Bitcoin. It’s impossible to know what
09:49 the price is going to be tomorrow or
09:51 next week. In fact, you’ll notice uh
09:53 over the last 3 weeks, I had at least
09:56 two, if not I guess two paychecks hit at
09:58 a price higher than today, and I
10:00 immediately bought Bitcoin. If I knew
10:03 that the price was going to be $114,000
10:05 today, obviously, I would not pay use a
10:07 paycheck and buy Bitcoin at $120,000 or
10:10 $118,000.
10:12 I would b wait and buy it at $114.
10:14 Nobody, not you, not me, not Michael
10:17 Sailor, not James Czech, nobody knows
10:20 what the price of Bitcoin is going to be
10:21 next week or next month. And so all you
10:23 can do is buy Bitcoin with whatever
10:25 money you have as soon as you can and
10:27 sit on it for as long as conceivably
10:29 possible. That is the only strategy that
10:31 consistently works. I will continue to
10:33 do that in 2025 and 2026. And in the
10:36 meantime, I will check the price of
10:37 Bitcoin periodically and I will live my
10:39 life in a very sustainable, modest, and
10:44 uh sustainable way. Um so, so that I
10:47 make sure I’ve got plenty of Bitcoin for
10:49 the future and I’ve got plenty of
10:50 charitable giving funds for the future
10:52 as well. And that’s my plan. It
10:55 basically doesn’t matter what happens
10:56 with the price of Bitcoin because I have
10:58 a plan regardless in all scenarios
10:60 whether Bitcoin goes straight up or has
11:03 a major price correction. I’m going to
11:05 live my life based on the net worth that
11:07 that price tells me I have. And that’s
11:09 worked well. And that’s what I plan to
11:11 do.