Will bitcoin go WAY UP in 2025, or CRASH in 2025? Here’s how to know

00:01 Will Bitcoin go way up in 2025 or crash
00:05 in 2025? Here’s how to know. And here’s
00:08 what the best experts on the topic are
00:10 thinking right now. First of all,
00:12 historically, Bitcoin has gone in a
00:14 4-year cycle. Uh it always ends up way
00:16 higher than it was before. And the
00:18 lowest point in the low in the low of
00:21 the four-year cycle ends up being also
00:24 way higher. So, for example, I’ll give
00:26 you just the highs. The highs were $32,
00:30 uh, then $1,200, then $69,000,
00:35 then
00:36 sorry, then $19,000, then $69,000,
00:40 then $123, which is the cycle we’re in
00:43 right now. So again, if you look at just
00:44 the highs for the four-year cycles, it
00:47 was 32, 1,200,
00:50 19,000, 69,000, and 123,000. If you look
00:55 at just the lows of each cycle, uh,
00:57 which the lows obviously followed each
00:59 of those numbers, the first low was $2,
01:02 then it was $92, then it was $3,200,
01:06 then it was $15,500.
01:09 Okay? And so I’m going to string those
01:11 together and say, and so in 2011, uh,
01:14 Bitcoin went from, uh, 5 up to $32, then
01:20 crashed to $2. Then it went up to $1,200
01:23 and crashed to $92. Then it went up to
01:26 $19,000
01:28 and crashed to $3,200. Good evening.
01:32 Then it went up to $69,000,
01:35 crashed to $15,500.
01:38 And here we are recently went to uh
01:41 $123,000.
01:43 So again, if you look at just the highs,
01:46 it goes up up up. If you look at just
01:48 the lows, it goes up up up. So the
01:51 question is and historically that’s been
01:53 three up years and one down year. So uh
01:56 the first you know four the first years
01:59 leading up to 2013 were up up years 2014
02:02 was a down year. Then 15 161 17 were up
02:05 years 18 was a down year. Um 1920 and 21
02:10 were up years. 22 was a down year. 23 24
02:14 and 25 have all been up years. And so
02:16 the question is, wait, if you notice a
02:18 pattern here, you might be thinking,
02:20 what happens next? Is the price going to
02:22 crash in 2026, which would keep the
02:26 4-year pattern going? Uh, first of all,
02:29 nobody can agree on this. Most of the
02:31 best experts think that we are past the
02:35 four-year cycle, meaning the level of
02:37 adoption of Bitcoin is high enough now
02:39 that we’re just not going to get this
02:41 four-year adoption cycle, which is
02:44 natural for technologies. Each different
02:45 technology goes in different cycles.
02:47 Bitcoin for a variety of technical
02:49 reasons tends to be in a four-year
02:51 cycle. Other technologies happen to be
02:53 in a sort of a different cycle. But the
02:55 adoption of any technology or any any
02:59 anything frankly happens in cycles for
03:02 reasons if you want to understand why
03:04 read the bullish case for Bitcoin by VJ
03:07 Buaati which I would recommend anybody
03:09 at this point in Bitcoin’s life. That’s
03:12 like the best you book you can read if
03:13 you want to understand why Bitcoin
03:14 behaves the way it does. The bullish
03:17 case for Bitcoin by VJ Boyapati. Okay,
03:22 it’s on Audible, it’s on Amazon, it’s on
03:24 Kindle, it’s on everything. Okay, so
03:26 most people think there is between a 51%
03:29 and a 60% chance that we are past those
03:32 four-year cycles, which means we are
03:34 going to grind up and Bitcoin will bore
03:37 us to death on the way to a million
03:39 dollars. Meaning, we’re just going to we
03:41 grind up 20 or 30%, hang out there for a
03:44 couple weeks or a couple months. Grind
03:45 up 20 or 30% and then just I mean, then
03:49 we hang out there for some series of
03:50 months. Then we grind up 20 or 30%, then
03:53 we hang out there for a series of
03:55 months. Grind up again. So, that is a
03:58 very boring way of getting to a million
03:59 dollars, but it also is an amazing way
04:01 of getting to a million dollars because
04:02 you don’t have these crazy epic
04:05 downturns. Now, that doesn’t mean uh so
04:07 far since 2022, the last really bare
04:10 market, meaning down market, pessimistic
04:12 market, um we have had two downturns
04:15 that were between 30 and 33%. Let’s call
04:18 them 32%. Uh let’s call it 33 cuz that’s
04:20 like 1/3 oneird of 100. Um so, we’ve had
04:23 two downturns of 33% since 2022. But the
04:28 other down four-year cycle downturns
04:30 were much larger. uh back in the early
04:32 days it was a 94 in uh after 2011 it was
04:35 a 94% correction after 2013 it was a 93%
04:38 correction after 2017 it was a 84%
04:42 correction and after uh 2021 it was a
04:45 77.5%
04:48 correction these all these numbers are
04:50 all off the top of my head but but
04:52 they’re all accurate. Um so anyway um
04:55 most people think those sort of
04:56 corrections are done. Um and in order to
04:59 get those sort of corrections you have
05:00 to have a huge run up in the price
05:02 before the correction. That’s the way
05:04 that works. The uh the term is the bull
05:08 authors the bear. Authors as in in a u t
05:12 h o r s. Authors as in is the author of
05:15 the bear. So the reason you had those
05:18 major price corrections in the past of
05:21 94% 93% 84% and 77.5%
05:26 was because right before that there was
05:29 a massive increase in the price. So
05:32 before that 94% correction the price
05:34 went from 5 to $32. That’s like a
05:38 ridiculously insane run. And then um
05:42 before the 93% correction, the price
05:44 went from $2 to $1,200.
05:48 That’s crazy. So, of course, there’s
05:49 going to be a correction after that.
05:51 Okay. Before the 84% price correction,
05:54 the price went from $92 up to $19,000.
05:59 Of course, you’re going to get a price
06:00 correction. So, and uh before the 77% uh
06:05 77.5% price correction, the price went
06:08 from um $3,200
06:12 up to $69,000.
06:16 Again, a huge price increase. So, the
06:18 bull market authors the bare market. And
06:21 that means you can tell how big of a
06:23 bare market we’re going to have based on
06:25 the bull market that happens before it.
06:28 So, if somebody said, “What is the
06:29 biggest price correction you think
06:30 Bitcoin would ever do off of today’s
06:32 price?” I would say, “I don’t think it’s
06:35 going to be that big because we haven’t
06:36 had this crazy bull run leading up to
06:40 it.” Um, now obviously we’ve gone from a
06:42 low of $15,500 in 2022
06:46 up to $123,000.
06:49 So you’re thinking, well, that’s a huge
06:51 rise, but that rise happened relatively
06:54 slowly, unlike in the past where those
06:57 rises were just this epic uh, you know,
07:00 epic run that happened in a series of
07:02 months. In this case, we’ve gone higher,
07:05 but we’ve gone higher little by little,
07:06 slowly by slowly. I mean, we’ve just
07:08 basically ground higher. Um, and when
07:11 you grind higher, the marketplace has a
07:13 lot more time to adjust to the different
07:15 price points of Bitcoin, meaning the
07:17 probability that you get a big price
07:18 correction is lower. So, if we continue
07:22 to grind higher and Bitcoin bores us to
07:25 death on the way to a million, there
07:26 probably won’t be a huge bare market.
07:29 That doesn’t mean we won’t get price
07:30 corrections of 33% or even 50% along the
07:33 way, but it’s highly unlikely we get a
07:35 77.5% price correction like back in 2022
07:40 and which was caused by the blowing up
07:42 of I mean like every stupid company that
07:45 did stupid things with crypto, not
07:47 Bitcoin, but crypto. They all blew up at
07:49 the same time in the second half of 2022
07:51 and it just dragged the market way down.
07:53 And then the cherry on top was Sam
07:55 Bankman Freed and his blow up of FTX. So
07:58 if we don’t have something like that
08:00 then it’s unlikely that we will end up
08:03 with a huge u you know bare market. So
08:07 again between 51 and 60% probabilities
08:10 is what the best most most informed
08:12 people are saying that we’re past those
08:14 cycles and it’s going to climb climb
08:16 climb boring us to death on the way to a
08:19 million which leaves somewhere between a
08:21 40% chance and a 49% chance that we will
08:24 get a big parabolic rise. If we do get a
08:28 big parabolic rise, what that looks like
08:30 is the, you know, the end of this year
08:33 in a very few short months, we get this
08:36 epic tear where Bitcoin goes from
08:38 $114,000 where it is today all the way
08:41 to 180 or 190 or 210 or $220,000
08:46 in a very short period of time. like in
08:48 the matter of 6 weeks or 8 weeks or you
08:51 know something like that you get this
08:53 huge rise adding more than a trillion
08:55 dollar to the price of Bitcoin uh the
08:59 total price of Bitcoin because there’s
09:01 21 million coins so the value of all the
09:03 Bitcoin in the world is the current
09:04 price $114,000
09:06 times 21 million which right now puts
09:09 the market capitalization at like 2.3
09:12 trillion or something like that. So if
09:14 you go up 50,000 a coin, you’re adding a
09:17 trillion dollars to the market
09:18 capitalization. And that’s a lot of
09:20 money. It takes a lot of money to add a
09:22 trillion dollars to the price of
09:24 anything. So um the best way to know
09:27 what’s going to happen next, or at least
09:28 the probabilities, is to follow James
09:31 Czech, who goes by checkmate, and on
09:33 Twitter he’s either checkmate or
09:35 checkmate with a Y. Um and he has a
09:39 subscription service that charges $29 a
09:41 month. and he is by far the best
09:44 commentator and analyst about why
09:46 markets behave they do the the way they
09:49 do the human psychology uh behind every
09:52 move of the market and what it is what
09:56 is likely to happen next based on how
09:59 things are playing out. So I follow
10:01 James Czech he is my sherpa that helps
10:04 me understand what’s coming next. He is
10:06 the one who coined the term I think the
10:08 you know the bull authors the bear and
10:11 uh he is just by far the best person uh
10:14 to give insights on what’s going on how
10:16 much profit are people in that are in
10:18 Bitcoin how much profit are they taking
10:20 and of course it makes no sense to take
10:22 profit uh one second here
10:28 in my opinion it take makes no sense to
10:31 to get
10:33 sorry my internet went out for quite a
10:35 few minutes there and now it’s back on.
10:38 So, this video seems like a live video,
10:41 but it’s actually recorded in two
10:42 totally different segments because my uh
10:46 my cellular went out. So, here we are
10:48 again. But this is uh totally I mean a
10:51 different time of day, different
10:52 location, but hopefully Facebook Live
10:54 will string the two videos together.
10:56 We’ll hope for the best. Um anyway, so
10:59 James Czech authored the, you know, the
11:00 the the terminology of the bull authors
11:03 the bear, meaning you can tell how big
11:04 of a correction’s coming based on how
11:07 epic or unsustainable a price rise was
11:10 before it happened. And James Czech also
11:12 is constantly following for example how
11:15 much money is getting coming into and
11:18 out of Bitcoin. How much unrealized
11:20 profit people are in meaning all the
11:23 people who hold Bitcoin how much total
11:25 up are they in on their investment
11:27 because statistically the more people
11:29 are up on their investment the more
11:31 likely they are to sell their
11:32 investment. Um so he tracks all of that
11:34 and then he also tracks how much profit
11:36 taking again assuming you want to call
11:38 it profit taking. I would call it, I
11:40 don’t know, stupidity of moving, you
11:42 know, Bitcoin into US dollars. But
11:44 obviously, if you’re using it to improve
11:46 your life or your family’s life or, you
11:48 know, go on a nice vacation, great. Good
11:50 for you. I have no problem with
11:51 converting Bitcoin into things that
11:54 improve the life of you or your family.
11:56 I would just never convert Bitcoin into
11:59 US dollars with the intent of holding US
12:01 dollars because that makes zero sense to
12:03 ever convert something that is scarce
12:05 into something that is not scarce. The
12:07 goal is obviously to end up with more of
12:09 what is scarce, not what is less scarce.
12:12 Um, so to to recap here and then I’ll
12:14 add a few more details. To recap,
12:16 Bitcoin has gone through four major
12:18 cycles, four-year cycles. Most people
12:21 think that those four-year cycles are
12:23 over, but only by, you know, 51 to 60%.
12:26 So, they barely lean in favor of the
12:29 four-year cycles being over. you will
12:31 know if we are having four-year cycles
12:33 because if we get a radical increase in
12:37 the price of Bitcoin, you know, in the
12:39 second half of this year, uh, or the
12:42 first half of 2026 or whatever,
12:44 actually, at any point, at any point, if
12:46 we get a huge runup in the price of
12:48 Bitcoin, that makes the chart for 2025
12:52 or 2026 look like the charts from 2013
12:57 or actually, so if you look at the chart
12:59 for 2025, it doesn’t look anything like
13:02 uh 2011 or 2013 or 2017 or 2021. But if
13:07 we get a huge rise that makes 2026 or
13:11 2020 uh uh sorry 2025 or 2026
13:16 look like those huge rises in 2011,
13:19 2013, 2017 and 2021, then yes, we will
13:22 get a price correction. All right. So,
13:25 let’s talk about actually I’m going to
13:27 do a separate video talking about why
13:30 the price is correct after a huge bull
13:32 run. So, I will I will probably do that
13:35 video next. But, let me think that
13:36 there’s anything else I can do on here.
13:37 So, again, James Czech for $29 a month
13:40 is by far the best person to follow if
13:42 you’re super into Bitcoin. He is the
13:44 only