00:01 Hey everyone, let’s talk about what is
00:03 happening when Bitcoin’s price starts to
00:05 rise and then it falls back and then it
00:08 tries to rise again and then it falls
00:10 back and just when you’re getting your
00:11 hopes up because it’s rising again then
00:14 it falls back. What’s actually going on
00:16 behind the scenes there? Well, first of
00:18 all, Bitcoin is one of the first
00:20 opportunities typ typically that people
00:22 have experiencing something that is
00:25 affected by the laws of supply and
00:27 demand. So every stock, every bond,
00:29 every commodity, basically everything
00:31 you buy or sell in your life is affected
00:34 by the laws of supply and demand. But
00:36 almost none of those things are globally
00:39 traded 24/7. In fact, none of those
00:42 things are globally traded 24/7 other
00:45 than Bitcoin. So when people buy Bitcoin
00:47 for the first time, it’s usually the
00:49 first time that they’ve experienced an
00:51 asset that they can watch the price go
00:54 up and down literally every second of
00:56 every day as long as they want, no
00:57 matter how long they want to do it. And
00:59 that is a new experience for most
01:01 people. Even the stock market, if people
01:03 own individual stocks like Tesla or
01:05 Amazon or Apple or Microsoft or Google
01:08 or Facebook or or Nvidia or something
01:10 like that, even those stocks only trade
01:13 during stock market hours and the stock
01:16 market is only open 6.5 hours per day
01:20 and it’s closed on, you know, bank
01:22 holidays and all that. So, the stock
01:24 market only trades 19% of the time, 1 n%
01:28 of the time. That means 81% of the time
01:31 the stock market is closed which means
01:33 the vast majority of the time that you
01:35 check the price of a stock it’s not
01:38 going to be moving because the stock
01:40 market’s closed which means the price is
01:41 not moving. So what is going on when
01:44 Bitcoin rises and then falls and then
01:46 rises and then falls. Well, so what’s
01:48 happening is you are experiencing supply
01:51 and demand upfront and personal and
01:54 you’re seeing it completely unfiltered.
01:57 So, let me tell you what happens when
01:58 the price rises. So, this morning I woke
02:00 up, I checked the price of Bitcoin. It
02:02 is $109500.
02:04 So, $19,500.
02:07 So when the price starts to rise from
02:10 108,000 to 109,500,
02:13 the very first thing that happens is
02:15 idiot day traders who are trying to time
02:18 the market by buying when it ticks up
02:21 and uh sorry, selling when it ticks up,
02:24 buying when it ticks low, and doing that
02:26 over and over and again, those day
02:28 traders sell when the price starts to
02:30 rise. Now, virtually all of those people
02:33 lose money. I do not ever recommend
02:35 anyone try day trading. It is a losers
02:38 game. Everyone who tries it literally
02:41 more than 99% lose money. Don’t do that.
02:44 But there are people that are convinced
02:46 that they are special that they can do
02:47 that. So when the price ticks up, those
02:49 people start dumping the day trading
02:51 Bitcoin. So that is one of the reasons
02:54 the price starts to go back down when it
02:57 rises is because you’ve got day traders
02:59 dumping it. Uh another reason is you
03:02 have funds that are rebalancing. So if
03:05 somebody has a fund that uh they want to
03:08 be 20% Bitcoin and 80% other stuff and
03:12 the price of Bitcoin goes up by 5% or 1%
03:16 or 2% suddenly their fund is overweight
03:19 in Bitcoin and anytime their fund
03:22 becomes overweight in anything whether
03:25 it’s Bitcoin or Tesla stock or anything
03:26 else they sell some of the thing that
03:29 went up and rebalance by buying some of
03:33 the other assets. assets that are lower
03:35 by comparison. So if that fund edges up
03:38 to uh it used to be 20% Bitcoin and now
03:42 because the price of Bitcoin went up,
03:43 it’s 21% Bitcoin and 79% everything
03:46 else, they will sell 1% of the of the
03:50 fund of the Bitcoin, which is about 5%
03:52 of their Bitcoin. They will sell that
03:54 and then they will use that money to buy
03:56 more of whatever represents the 79% so
03:60 that it is back to balanced at 8020. So
04:02 that happens. Um also everybody who owns
04:06 Bitcoin when the price rises from
04:08 $108,000
04:10 to uh 200 $ 109,500
04:14 a bunch of people feel slightly
04:16 wealthier and when people feel slightly
04:19 wealthier they decide to use some of
04:22 their Bitcoin to improve their lives in
04:24 some way. So, for example, I keep very
04:27 uh well, as far as improving life, you
04:30 know, the major purchase purchases I’ve
04:32 made recently is I uh installed a
04:35 generator at my house so that my
04:37 electricity stops going out because
04:39 energy to save their lives cannot seem
04:41 to keep the power on. It’s constantly
04:43 going out about once every week or two,
04:45 which is absolutely insane. But anyway,
04:47 I bought a generator. Now, I’m still
04:49 accumulating Bitcoin and with every
04:51 paycheck every two weeks, but that
04:53 generator cost more than a handful of
04:55 paychecks. Um, so as a result of that,
04:58 you know, when the price goes up, people
05:00 start feeling like they can afford a
05:02 vacation or a generator or a new car or
05:06 an add-on to their house. So, as the
05:08 price goes up, people who have been
05:10 holding Bitcoin a long time decide that
05:12 they are now wealthy enough that they
05:13 can afford to buy things. And so they
05:16 may liquidate $500 a bitcoin or $1,000 a
05:19 bitcoin or substantially more if they’re
05:21 buying something uh you know a nice
05:23 vacation or something like that. So that
05:25 is happening and so then uh and then
05:28 you’re dealing with
05:30 um you know people with emergencies that
05:33 uh you know they’ve been waiting for
05:35 they’ve been waiting to liquidate some
05:36 Bitcoin to pay off a medical bill and
05:39 they didn’t want to do it at $108,000
05:41 Bitcoin but now at $109,500 they’re like
05:45 you know I really ought to pay off that
05:46 medical bill and so they liquidate some
05:48 Bitcoin. So, as the price rises,
05:51 uh, everybody who could possibly want to
05:53 liquidate Bitcoin for any reason looks
05:56 at the price and they’re like, “Ooh,
05:57 it’s up a little bit. I’ll liquidate
05:59 just a little bit.” Now, the reason
06:01 Bitcoin’s price always eventually goes
06:04 up, is that those people can only
06:06 liquidate the same Bitcoin once. So,
06:10 once someone has sold some Bitcoin to
06:12 buy a generator or they have sold some
06:14 Bitcoin to go on a nice vacation or buy
06:17 a car or put an add-on on their house or
06:19 pay for a medical bill, they can’t sell
06:21 the same Bitcoin a second time. Which
06:24 means essentially what’s happening as
06:26 the price goes up, uh, all of that
06:28 Bitcoin that is now mobile, that is now
06:32 willing to move at a price of 109,500
06:36 can only be sold once. And so all that
06:40 has to happen for the market to readjust
06:42 to a new price is for the um the people
06:46 that are willing to sell at 109,500
06:49 to effectively get that Bitcoin out of
06:53 their system and for it to be bought up
06:55 by the marketplace. Now the exact same
06:57 thing is happening on the uh demand side
06:60 is h as is happening on the supply side.
07:02 So, every time the price starts to fall
07:04 back as a result of all of these things
07:07 we’ve just been talking about, there’s
07:09 people like me out there who are like,
07:10 “Ooh, it’s back to 108,000. Uh, I better
07:14 go see if there’s any money I can scrap
07:16 together to go buy some more Bitcoin.”
07:17 There’s people who are buying Bitcoin
07:19 for the first time that they check the
07:21 price and they’re like, $ 109,500?
07:24 That’s kind of expensive. Maybe I missed
07:25 it. Maybe I’ll sit on the sidelines.
07:27 Then, as a result of the price getting
07:29 pushed down by all of the people who do
07:31 all of the things I’ve just been talking
07:33 about, those people check the price,
07:34 they’re like, “Oo, $108,000 Bitcoin.”
07:37 Now, 109,500 seemed a little expensive,
07:40 but now that it’s back at 108, maybe
07:42 I’ll load up on some Bitcoin. So, every
07:44 time the price goes down, the reverse
07:46 happens, which is all the people who
07:48 have a reason to buy Bitcoin, they’re
07:50 rebalancing funds. they’ve got some
07:53 extra cash available, their paycheck
07:54 hit, they’re starting to understand
07:57 Bitcoin better, and they want to
07:58 increase their uh allocation of their
08:00 net worth from, you know, 1% Bitcoin to
08:04 5% Bitcoin or 5% Bitcoin to 10% Bitcoin.
08:07 All of those people as the price drops
08:10 buy more Bitcoin, which pushes the price
08:12 back up. Um, now there’s 95% of the
08:16 world does not own any Bitcoin and only
08:18 5% of the world does own Bitcoin. So
08:20 over time, the 95% is always going to
08:24 outrun the 5% because the 5% of people
08:27 who own Bitcoin can only sell their
08:29 Bitcoin once. And the 95% of the people
08:32 who do not own any Bitcoin have way more
08:34 money than the people who own Bitcoin
08:37 have Bitcoin to sell. So if you think
08:39 about it, imagine uh two piles of
08:42 Bitcoin. You know, one’s like, I don’t
08:44 know, 5t tall, which is the 5%. So,
08:48 there’s like a five- foot tall pile of
08:50 Bitcoin and that’s the people who
08:52 already own it and that’s their Bitcoin.
08:54 And every time the price tries to rise,
08:56 uh, they sell a little bit and it pushes
08:58 the price down, which means the stack
09:00 that they have to that they’re sitting
09:02 on is slightly smaller. Now, imagine a
09:05 stack of US dollars that is 20 times as
09:08 tall, that is 95t tall of US dollars
09:12 that can be converted into Bitcoin.
09:14 Again, there’s way more dollars in the
09:17 system than there are Bitcoin in the
09:19 system. There’s way more assets. The
09:21 total assets of the world is about um
09:24 $1,000 trillion. So, if you add up all
09:28 of the assets that people own in the
09:30 entire world, it’s about a,000 trillion.
09:33 Uh which is like a quadrillion or a
09:35 quintilion. It’s one of those two. I
09:36 think it’s quadrillion. Anyway, that’s
09:38 all the assets. That’s real estate,
09:40 stocks, bonds, uh all fiat currencies
09:43 combined. Basically, precious metals,
09:45 jewelry, uh Picasso paintings, every
09:49 conceivable thing of value that people
09:51 own in the entire world is worth about
09:53 $100 trillion. Sorry, $1,000 trillion.
09:57 Bitcoin only represents $2 trillion.
10:01 That means Bitcoin is 210 of 1% 1/5if of
10:05 1% of the assets that people own in the
10:09 world. That’s a tiny tiny tiny tiny tiny
10:12 tiny percent. Uh it’s 2%. So 2 trillion
10:15 is 2% of 100 trillion which means it’s
10:18 2% 1/5 of 1% of 1,000 trillion which is
10:22 all the assets in the world. So what
10:24 what’s happening over time is more of
10:27 that 1,00 trillion in assets are pouring
10:30 into Bitcoin and inevitably over time
10:33 they overwhelm the people who are
10:35 willing to sell their Bitcoin at 109,500
10:39 or 112,000 or whatever it is. And when
10:42 that demand overwhelms the supply, it
10:45 pushes the price higher because again
10:47 all of those people that are selling can
10:49 only sell once. So once they sell, they
10:52 don’t have that Bitcoin to sell again.
10:53 So the next time the price goes up to
10:57 110,000, all that Bitcoin that got sold
11:00 at 109,500 can’t be sold by the same
11:04 people over again. And the people who
11:06 bought it at 109,500 don’t want to sell
11:08 it at 110,000 because that’s like.5%
11:12 profit. It’s like nothing. Um, so
11:14 inevitably over time the people who are
11:16 selling get overrun with the demand of
11:19 the people that are buying and then the
11:21 price goes up. So when the price reaches
11:23 a new level, so we’re about 50% higher
11:26 than the maximum price that was reached
11:29 for the seven sorry 8 months that
11:32 Bitcoin traded between 55,000 and
11:35 actually I’ve got an incoming call so I
11:37 got to take this. So, we’re about we’re
11:38 up about 50% already um from the highest
11:42 price that Bitcoin hit for about 8
11:44 months of last year and uh you know and
11:47 it’s taken time to digest that. So, last
11:49 time it took about 8 months to digest a
11:51 50% price movement and now we’re up 50%
11:54 higher and I don’t know how long it’s
11:56 been 7 months since we first crossed
11:59 $100,000. So, I’m expecting any day now
12:02 to definitively break above $110,000 and
12:06 stay there, you know, hopefully forever,
12:08 but at least a long time. Um, and we
12:11 might get some temporary price dip that
12:13 drags it under there temporarily. But,
12:15 um, anyway, I’m expecting that to happen
12:17 anytime. I don’t know when that’s going
12:18 to happen. It’s just it’s like a pig and
12:20 a python and it feels like it’s been
12:22 long enough that it’s about time where
12:25 all of the Bitcoin that wanted to be
12:27 sold at any of the price points that
12:29 we’ve been around, it feels like it’s
12:32 had about as much time as it needs to be
12:34 sold at those price points. which means
12:35 I’m expecting any hour now or any day
12:38 now for the price to relatively rapidly
12:40 go to $120 to $125,000
12:44 which is what James Czech predicts will
12:46 be sort of the next range that we’ll
12:47 have to to spend some time at and then
12:50 you know up from there. Um so anyway uh
12:53 it feels like enough time has passed
12:55 could be any minute could be any day
12:57 could be any week could take more time I
12:59 don’t know but now continues in my
13:02 opinion to be a great time to buy
13:03 Bitcoin. Uh, and it’s only a matter of
13:06 time till the demand outstrips the
13:09 supply and the price goes up. Have a
13:11 great day everyone. Thanks.
