Which will come first, a huge rise in the price of bitcoin, or a significant price correction?

00:01 hey everyone which will come first a
00:04 huge increase in the price of bitcoin or
00:07 a significant price correction in the
00:09 price of bitcoin i want to walk through
00:11 the likely uh you know sort of the
00:13 supporting facts of one versus the other
00:15 and give you some things to think about
00:17 on each good evening
00:20 good
00:21 okay so let’s walk through uh the the
00:24 best thesis about a huge price increase
00:27 uh in the price of bitcoin is made by
00:29 jack malers m a l l e r s with the jack
00:32 morer show uh on monday of this week
00:35 this past week so you can see that on
00:38 youtube i posted the link on youtube on
00:40 monday night of this week or i posted
00:43 earlier today i i posted a link to that
00:46 uh jack maller show on apple podcast so
00:50 you can go get it from monday on the
00:52 youtube link or you can get it from the
00:53 apple podcast link today uh jack malers
00:56 makes the strongest case for the
00:58 government of the united states about to
01:00 print just a boatload of money as a
01:04 necessity because they don’t have a
01:06 choice and that’s going to absolutely
01:08 result in a significant price increase
01:10 for things that humans cannot make out
01:12 of thin air like bitcoin so if you want
01:15 to see the strongest case on that front
01:17 i’m not going to reiterate all the
01:19 points that jack malers makes because
01:21 you can just go watch it yourself and i
01:23 thought it was really fantastic and uh
01:25 the episode is titled saying they’re
01:27 saying the quiet part out loud so that
01:30 episode the quiet part out loud or now
01:32 they’re saying the quiet part out loud
01:33 or anyway it has the words quiet part
01:36 out loud in it and that does the best
01:38 job of making the case that the
01:40 government is about to print just a ton
01:43 of money and that they have no other way
01:45 out of the massive debt spiral uh that
01:48 they are in so that i think is the high
01:51 probability of the more than 70%
01:53 probability that we see a huge price
01:55 increase in the price of bitcoin because
01:57 central banks around the world are
01:59 cutting interest rates meaning they’re
02:01 printing money and the federal reserve
02:04 is so far refusing to do that there’s a
02:06 standoff between jerome powell and
02:08 donald trump with jerome powell trying
02:11 to keep interest rates high um and
02:14 donald trump and others trying to force
02:16 him to lower them and i will not go into
02:18 all the politics of that again you can
02:20 watch the jack morers uh podcast and he
02:23 does a really good job of laying all
02:25 that out okay on the flip side the sort
02:28 of pessimistic uh concerns that could
02:31 lead to a bare market meaning a down
02:33 market um are probably best expressed by
02:37 safodine amos the author of the bitcoin
02:39 standard i posted a clip uh from him
02:42 earlier this week and i posted a full
02:44 podcast interview with him today so if
02:47 you want to see uh hear more of the bear
02:49 case meaning the pessimistic case uh you
02:52 can hear it from safodine amos uh or i
02:55 posted uh some of the links uh earlier
02:58 this week to james czech who goes by
02:60 checkmate who is my favorite bitcoin
03:02 analyst and he basically says “look a
03:04 ton of bitcoin is being bought up by
03:06 corporations uh bitcoin treasury
03:08 companies they’re called and um you know
03:11 that’s unarguably they’re buying like a
03:13 ton of bitcoin and that is creating a
03:14 ton of demand and part of that’s the
03:16 reason bitcoin is holding above $100,000
03:19 but other indicators are that the demand
03:22 that you know retail for example retail
03:25 investors meaning average just people uh
03:28 the the you know the the buzz is really
03:30 low right now like the total number of
03:32 search terms for the word bitcoin is
03:34 super low the total number of people
03:36 talking about bitcoin is super low the
03:39 total amount of transactions on the
03:41 bitcoin network that indicate new users
03:43 are joining and moving bitcoin around is
03:46 pretty low as uh as compared to
03:48 historical examples now a lot of that is
03:50 because people are just moving bitcoin
03:52 around uh on coinbase or on river but
03:55 every time you move bitcoin for example
03:57 to bitkey or off of bitkey you got to do
04:00 that on the bitcoin main chain and those
04:03 kind of transactions are relatively uh
04:05 low now some of that is because people
04:08 like me uh don’t move bitcoin around
04:10 very much i mean i use the coinbase
04:12 debit card to buy stuff but that all of
04:13 that happens on coinbase so that doesn’t
04:15 show up on the actual blockchain um and
04:18 i don’t move uh bitcoin on or off uh
04:21 various bit keys very often because i
04:23 just you know i try not to do that i try
04:25 to keep it in cold storage keep my bit
04:27 keys in very safe very difficult to get
04:30 to places and they’re difficult enough
04:32 to get to that i try to only move
04:34 bitcoin around when i really need to and
04:37 uh anyway so all that to say low what’s
04:40 called low onchain activity doesn’t
04:43 necessarily mean anything the total
04:45 number of people who are searching for
04:46 the word bitcoin on google doesn’t
04:48 necessarily mean anything but typically
04:51 those things are a lot higher if the
04:54 market is about to go a lot higher
04:56 because there’s just a lot of buzz so
04:58 there’s amazingly little buzz in uh sort
05:02 of the online community right now around
05:04 bitcoin um again for people who follow
05:07 bitcoin like me obviously we’re always
05:09 talking about it but for the general
05:11 population it’s not a water cooler
05:14 discussion happening right now and
05:16 obviously the more it is the more people
05:18 buy bitcoin because they’re hearing
05:20 about it so anyway again just to
05:22 reiterate i think there’s a greater than
05:24 70% chance that we have very exciting
05:27 times ahead over the next five or six
05:29 months especially but even potentially
05:31 the next year um and i think there’s a
05:33 less than 30% chance that we have to
05:36 live through sort of a brutal downturn
05:39 and just suck it up and live with it uh
05:42 for a little while while we wait for the
05:44 demand in the marketplace to catch up
05:46 and if we hit that uh you know time it’s
05:50 obviously a great buying opportunity for
05:52 bitcoin uh but it’s also painful to go
05:54 through nobody likes doing that nobody
05:56 likes going through a bitcoin bare
05:57 market um other than the people who are
05:60 purely in buy mode but most people are
06:02 only in buy mode on bitcoin in a bare
06:04 market if it’s their second bare market
06:07 because most people need to see bitcoin
06:09 recover once themselves before they
06:12 trust that it will always recover again
06:13 in the future and once you’ve seen it
06:15 once you realize “oh i get it bitcoin
06:18 always does.”
06:21 so if you want to understand all of this
06:23 the price cycles of bitcoin better read
06:25 vj boyat’s book the bullish case for
06:28 bitcoin uh bullish as in b u l l i s the
06:33 bullish case for bitcoin by vj vi j a y
06:38 and i’m not going to try to pronounce
06:40 boya but it’s vj boya with a b as in boy
06:44 uh anyway so pick up that book it’s a
06:46 fantastic book you’ll understand why
06:48 bitcoin behaves the way it does much
06:50 better after reading that book which
06:52 will make your comfort level much higher
06:54 with regard to bitcoin and uh anyway let
06:57 me know if you have any questions i am
06:59 here to serve i think you know the
07:01 future could be quite exciting and if
07:03 not it’s going to be a prolonged buying
07:05 opportunity for those that are not
07:07 already 100% bitcoin like me so uh let
07:10 me know if you need anything send me
07:11 questions i love answering questions i’m
07:13 always available thank you everyone and
07:15 have a wonderful evening thanks