What will happen at $120K per bitcoin? $150K per bitcoin? $220K per bitcoin in the next 12 months?

00:01 Hey everyone, my favorite Bitcoin
00:03 analyst is James Check who goes by
00:06 Checkmate on Twitter and I just posted a
00:09 few minutes ago I posted a link to his
00:11 latest analysis where he talks about
00:14 what’s likely to happen at various
00:15 Bitcoin price levels and because that is
00:18 behind a payw wall I figured I would
00:20 give you a sort of quick verbal summary
00:21 of some of what he’s talking about. Um,
00:25 okay. So, the first thing to note is
00:27 that, um, you know, we’re very close to
00:29 a Bitcoin all-time high. Bitcoin is
00:31 $104,000 per coin. Right now, the
00:33 all-time high is 109. So, we’re within
00:35 5% of the highest Bitcoin has ever been.
00:39 Um, his expectation, as is mine, is at
00:42 some point we will blow through the
00:44 all-time high, pass 110. And usually
00:47 when you hit a halt all-time high, there
00:49 are some people that sell Bitcoin
00:51 because it’s the highest it’s ever been.
00:53 They bought it right near the top. They
00:55 didn’t know what they were doing. They
00:56 got caught up in the fear of missing out
00:59 FOMO and they bought Bitcoin at 108 or
01:02 109,000 and here’s their chance to get
01:04 off the train at the price they paid. So
01:07 some people will do that, but typically
01:08 there’s enough momentum uh to blow past
01:11 that. According to James Czech, uh once
01:13 we get to about $120,000 per Bitcoin,
01:16 you start to get a pretty significant uh
01:19 amount of the uh holders of Bitcoin in a
01:22 pretty significant profit. Now,
01:24 obviously, when you hit 120,000 for f
01:26 for the first time, 100% of Bitcoin
01:29 holders are in a profit because every
01:31 all-time high above 109,000 means that
01:34 nobody in the entire history of Bitcoin
01:35 has ever bought Bitcoin for less than
01:37 that. that which means literally 100% of
01:40 people who own Bitcoin are in profit.
01:42 But people don’t tend to buy things with
01:45 their Bitcoin that result in a
01:47 significant liquidation of Bitcoin until
01:49 they are in more profit uh than that.
01:53 They tend to be in a little bit uh you
01:54 know have to be in
01:56 slightly sorry flies and other things
02:00 that bother you. um you tend to have to
02:03 be in more profit than just a little
02:05 profit for the average person to really
02:07 start wanting to, you know, go buy
02:09 something nice or put an addition on
02:11 their house or buy a new car or anything
02:13 like that. So once you get to $120,000
02:15 per coin, by his analysis, quite a
02:17 significant number of the Bitcoin
02:19 holders will be in profit, enough profit
02:22 that it’s the kind of profit that they
02:24 start thinking what they want to do with
02:26 their Bitcoin. So you start getting some
02:28 more serious sell pressure by people who
02:30 say, “Hey, you know, I held a Bitcoin
02:32 for a long time. Maybe bought it at
02:34 40,000. You know, here we are at
02:36 120,000. I’ve tripled my money and you
02:39 know, maybe it’s time to buy something
02:41 nice.” Now, that’s obviously a very
02:43 healthy process because it’s the way
02:45 everybody else in the world gets Bitcoin
02:46 since perhaps maybe 5% of the world owns
02:49 any Bitcoin at all and the vast majority
02:51 of those own very small amounts of
02:53 Bitcoin. It’s a good thing when people
02:55 who have hold held Bitcoin for a long
02:57 time decide they want to buy stuff
02:59 because otherwise how would the rest of
03:01 the world that doesn’t own any Bitcoin
03:02 end up with Bitcoin at some point? You
03:04 got to have someone who wants who is
03:06 holding Bitcoin want to improve the
03:09 lives of themselves or their family in
03:11 some way. Uh which results in them
03:13 selling some Bitcoin. And who do they
03:14 sell it to? They sell it to some of the
03:17 95% of the world that owns zero Bitcoin.
03:19 And that’s how those people get Bitcoin
03:22 in the first place. Okay. All right. So,
03:23 what happens at 150,000? So, based on
03:25 all of the, you know, most recent
03:28 analysis of Bitcoin, according to James
03:31 Czech, Bitcoin has spent less than 5% of
03:35 its total lifespan above a number that
03:38 in this case is about 105,000. Now, he
03:40 analyzes the price at which every single
03:43 uh the you know, the first time any
03:45 Bitcoin was bought by anybody and uh
03:48 averages that across the entire cohort
03:50 of everyone that owns Bitcoin. Now, he
03:52 obviously doesn’t know who owns what
03:53 Bitcoin, but on the Bitcoin blockchain,
03:56 you can see the price at which every
03:58 Bitcoin transacted most recently. So,
04:00 you can get a sense for the price at
04:02 which people are buying and selling
04:04 Bitcoin. And with the Bitcoin exchange
04:06 traded funds, the ETFs, you can also get
04:09 a sense at what price people are buying
04:10 and selling Bitcoin based on how much
04:12 new Bitcoin is being acquired or sold
04:14 off on any given day of stock market
04:17 trading for the Bitcoin ETFs. So, as a
04:19 result of that, according to him, at
04:20 $150,000 per Bitcoin, you start getting
04:25 what he calls overheated enough that you
04:27 start running into pretty significant
04:28 sell pressure. As in, there’s just a lot
04:30 of people in a lot of profit. All the
04:33 people who bought Bitcoin last year,
04:35 even last year, 2024, uh we spent, you
04:38 know, 7 and a half months with Bitcoin
04:40 between 55,000 and 70,000 a coin. So up
04:44 at $150,000 per coin, you’re looking at
04:47 all of those people are in double or
04:49 triple their money in Bitcoin. And
04:51 humans have this just incredible desire
04:54 to part with things once their gains
04:57 hits a certain level. Now, the smart
04:59 thing obviously is to hold Bitcoin as
05:00 long as you conceivably can for as long
05:02 as possible, but that’s just not human
05:04 behavior. uh actual human behavior is
05:07 the longer humans hold something uh the
05:10 the greater the gain on that thing the
05:12 more they are likely to want to alter
05:14 their lifestyle. Um, and that’s the
05:17 behavior of everybody, rich people, poor
05:18 people, you know, uh, middle class. If
05:22 you give them money and they triple it,
05:24 at some point they’re going to decide
05:26 rather than sitting on tripled money
05:27 that they want something to improve
05:29 their life or the life of their family
05:32 and they will act upon that and that is
05:33 how they will end up selling some of
05:35 their Bitcoin. So that will, you know,
05:37 happen most aggressively at $150,000 per
05:40 coin. Now uh James Czech also analyzes
05:44 what is the highest that he believes we
05:46 are likely to go this cycle if you are a
05:48 super ultra optimistic super you know
05:51 hyperbull and he puts that number at
05:54 $220,000 per bitcoin. So again we’re at
05:56 104 now. So, he’s saying, “Look, at
05:59 $220,000 per Bitcoin, it is almost
06:03 irresistible that just way too many
06:05 people are in way too big a profit that
06:08 human nature just cannot cannot cannot
06:12 stay in that much profit without selling
06:13 Bitcoin. I just you just you know any
06:17 human on the planet if you walk in and
06:19 they you know 2x 3x 5x 10x their money
06:23 or some of the early holders of Bitcoin
06:24 it’s way more than that they are going
06:26 to sell some Bitcoin they just
06:28 absolutely are. So he says in this cycle
06:30 which people typically talk about cycles
06:32 in four-year cycles in Bitcoin because
06:34 that is what sort of correlates with the
06:37 Bitcoin having cycle which is um you
06:39 know the the rate at which Bitcoin
06:41 issuance drops in half every four years
06:43 which is why there will only ever be 21
06:44 million Bitcoin because at some point
06:46 that having cycle results in it dropping
06:49 uh the new issuance of Bitcoin to zero
06:51 and then there is no more new newly
06:53 issued Bitcoin uh every 10 minutes. it
06:55 just stops at 21 million and then the
06:58 Bitcoin miners run on transaction fees
07:00 after that. Rather than a combination of
07:02 transaction fees and issuance of new
07:04 Bitcoin, they run exclusively on
07:05 transaction fees. Right now, it’s
07:07 partially transaction fees. It’s
07:08 partially newly issued Bitcoin. And
07:10 right now, Bitcoin miners get 3.125
07:13 Bitcoin every 10 minutes. So
07:16 3.125 used to be 50, then it was 25,
07:18 then it was 12 and a half, then it was
07:21 6.25, then now it is 3.125. Again, it’s
07:24 every four years. Bitcoin is 16 years
07:26 old. So, that having has happened,
07:28 whatever it is, three or four times, and
07:30 we’re now at 3.125, and it will drop to
07:32 half of that, 3.125 in 2028. Uh, but
07:36 anyway, so Bitcoin’s price cycles tend
07:38 to follow that. All right. So, what
07:40 happens when we hit hit the peak of this
07:43 price cycle, which could be, you know,
07:46 150,000, it could be 168,000. I think he
07:49 puts a range. I forget the I should have
07:51 looked it up. the the range was
07:52 something like he said between whatever
07:54 it was 150 and 168 or 162 or whatever it
07:58 was. Uh you can go look at the link I
08:00 posted. He said, you know, there’s just
08:02 so many people in profit that you just
08:03 start to get a lot of sell pressure and
08:06 at some point you get a pullback. And
08:08 the pullback is an opportunity for the
08:10 rest of the world to catch up in their
08:11 own Bitcoin acquisition, for the total
08:14 base of people who own Bitcoin to expand
08:16 um and for the supply to catch up with
08:19 the or sorry, the demand to catch up
08:20 with the price, which then creates an
08:23 opportunity for the price to go much
08:24 higher than that in the long term. But
08:26 in the short term, it’s just got to
08:28 catch up because the price just gets a
08:30 little bit ahead of the demand. Uh, you
08:33 know, the sustainable demand. It’s
08:34 obviously never ahead of the actual
08:36 demand because demand drives price. Um,
08:38 but it gets ahead of the sustainable
08:40 demand. There’s just not enough uh
08:42 people that are uh adopters in a
08:45 significant long-term way to hold the
08:47 price at say 150 or 168 or 220,000 or
08:51 whatever it is. So, at that point, you
08:53 typically get a pullback. Nobody knows
08:55 what percent pullback that will be.
08:57 Let’s run some numbers off of 150,000 uh
09:00 for example. So, at 150,000, a 20%
09:03 pullback uh pulls the price back to uh
09:07 120,000. So, that’s uh $30,000. So, 150
09:10 drops to 120. That would be a 20%
09:12 pullback. a 50% pullback, which would be
09:15 well, let me do a 33% pullback. Um,
09:18 which is the highest it’s been in the
09:20 last year or two that I recall, was a
09:23 33% pullback. Uh, that would drop the
09:25 price from 150 uh down to 100,000, which
09:28 is just under where it is right now. And
09:30 again, it’s not like it would stay
09:31 there. It’s just that’s the lowest it
09:33 would touch before ultimately starting
09:35 the march back up again. Um, and then
09:38 obviously you could end up with
09:39 something, you know, much more radical
09:41 like a 50% pullback, which could
09:43 temporarily, very temporarily, drop
09:46 $150,000 Bitcoin down to $75,000
09:49 Bitcoin. Now, you may be thinking, “But
09:51 wait, why would I not just wait for that
09:54 pullback and potentially buy Bitcoin for
09:57 less than $104,000 per coin?” And the
09:60 answer is because nobody, not me, not
10:02 you, not Michael Sailor, nobody knows
10:05 when the next Bitcoin pullback will be
10:07 or what percent it will be. So if we
10:10 plow up to 150,000 and we end up with a
10:13 pullback of uh 20% down to uh down to
10:19 13, sorry, 120,000, then you never get a
10:22 chance to buy it cheaper than today’s
10:23 price and then you get left behind and
10:26 tough luck. Uh, so that’s a very high
10:28 risk on an asset that has a high
10:30 likelihood of going up 1,000% in the
10:33 future. Trying to get a 10 or 20 or 30%
10:36 discount on Bitcoin and risking a,000%
10:40 future upside is just a totally sort of
10:43 a bet that makes no sense. Um, also, you
10:47 know, if we get to $150,000 per Bitcoin
10:50 and then there’s a 30% price correction,
10:52 a 30% price correction as opposed to a
10:54 33% price correction, I believe, puts us
10:57 a price above 104,000. I don’t know what
11:00 exactly 30% off of I should be able to
11:03 run that math in my head. Whatever that
11:05 is. Um, but it ends up I think with a
11:07 price that’s slightly higher than the
11:09 price it is right now. Um, so, uh, for
11:13 all of those reasons, uh, it generally
11:15 makes sense to buy Bitcoin and hold it
11:17 as long as possible. Now, I will do a
11:19 separate video about the difference
11:20 between buying Bitcoin lump sum and
11:23 buying Bitcoin dollar cost averaging.
11:26 And, uh, but I’ll save that for a
11:27 separate video. Um, but what typically
11:29 happens in a Bitcoin price draw down is
11:32 for some series of months or the longest
11:33 it typically is, like back in 2022, is
11:36 about a year. And that was because a
11:38 bunch of stuff blew up all at the same
11:39 time. So, uh, you know, the Bitcoin
11:42 price, everybody kept predicting that it
11:43 had finally bottomed and then some new
11:45 stupid, you know, bad business practices
11:48 from Sam Bankman Freed with FTX or
11:50 whatever it was would then extend things
11:53 a couple more months because it was just
11:55 the insanity of stupid business
11:57 practices just didn’t seem to stop in
11:59 2022. But it always eventually does.
12:01 Always eventually it’s back to normal
12:03 and the bad actors have been washed out
12:06 and it marches higher. So, we don’t know
12:09 once Bitcoin hits 150,000 or 168,000 or
12:13 220,000. Nobody knows what percent price
12:16 correction we could go through. If we
12:18 did, we could all make decisions exactly
12:20 when should we should buy Bitcoin, when
12:21 we shouldn’t, and how much and all that.
12:23 And obviously, that information does not
12:25 exist because it is impossible to time
12:27 the market. So all we know is that
12:29 according to James Czech, the price is
12:31 likely to be significantly higher in the
12:32 future than it is now. Uh even in the
12:35 short term and that that uh Bitcoin will
12:37 have a harder time flexing its muscles
12:40 and growing un
12:42 uninterrupted starting when it hits
12:44 about 120,000 and certainly when it hits
12:48 150,000. And at some point along the way
12:50 it will need to take a little breather
12:52 and then it will start to march higher
12:54 again toward 500,000. and you know, then
12:56 it’ll probably take a breather at some
12:58 point along that way uh in a significant
13:00 way before a million dollar. So, most
13:02 people in Bitcoin are are saying we’re
13:05 probably looking at two significant
13:06 price pullbacks um before we get to $1
13:10 million per Bitcoin. One sometime in the
13:13 I don’t know next 18 months and one
13:16 probably uh about four years after that
13:18 just because the Bitcoin 4-year price
13:20 cycles uh tend to tend to uh happen that
13:22 way. So maybe we’ll get uh you know in
13:25 the next 7 years we get to a million
13:27 dollars per Bitcoin. Maybe it’ll take
13:28 10. Nobody knows. Um it’s just a 100% a
13:32 function of how fast the world can
13:34 figure out that Bitcoin is better money.
13:36 But that does not change my
13:37 recommendations which is buy as much
13:39 Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as
13:41 long as conceivably possible. And that’s
13:43 just that’s the formula. That’s always
13:45 the formula. That’s never changed. That
13:48 will continue to be the formula. And as
13:50 we get higher into some of these price
13:51 levels I’ve talked about, I will start
13:53 recommending people dollar cost average
13:56 instead of uh lumpsum purchase. So it is
13:59 not too late to lump sum purchase
14:01 Bitcoin in my opinion um for however
14:03 much you want to put in. And then, you
14:06 know, as the price gets higher and
14:07 higher at some point, I would say, well,
14:09 look, you might be looking at a 30 to
14:11 50% price pullback at some point, uh, or
14:14 20 to 30%, whatever it is. Pick a
14:16 number. But, um, you since you probably
14:19 don’t want to buy at the the top and
14:21 then have to wait, you know, a series of
14:23 months or whatever, or even a year or
14:25 two until you’re back at that price, um,
14:27 I will recommend dollar cost averaging
14:29 because that’s a great way, uh, if you
14:30 think a price correction is coming up.
14:32 Uh that’s a great way to uh invest in a
14:35 lower risk way. Although it typically
14:37 does um you know you the the the upside
14:41 tend to tends to be lower doing that but
14:43 it tends to be easier on people’s
14:44 psychology uh as opposed to dumping a
14:47 bunch of money in what they in what they
14:49 perceive to be super expensive Bitcoin
14:51 and then it goes through a series of
14:52 months where the price is lower and they
14:54 feel bad. And so you can avoid that with
14:56 dollar cost averaging and I’ll do a
14:58 video shortly about that specifically.
15:00 Uh so to summarize here, uh Bitcoin’s at
15:03 104,000. The all-time high is 109. Once
15:07 we hit 110, you’ll start seeing people
15:09 bail who bought at 108 or 109.
15:13 Typically, there’s plenty of momentum to
15:15 blow past that. And then once we get to
15:17 120,000, you’ll start hitting more
15:19 momentum as a lot of people start
15:21 feeling rich and start selling some
15:23 Bitcoin to make their lives better in
15:25 some way or another. And certainly by
15:27 the time we get to 150, somewhere
15:29 between 150 and $168,000 per Bitcoin,
15:32 you will get a lot of that. Doesn’t mean
15:34 it can’t go higher. It just means there
15:36 will be a lot of people sitting on very
15:38 large unrealized profit. Unrealized
15:41 profit meaning they’re in profit, but
15:43 they haven’t realized that profit
15:44 because they haven’t sold the Bitcoin.
15:46 And that doesn’t mean they’ll sell all
15:47 the Bitcoin. It just means they’ll sell
15:49 some of it uh to improve their life in
15:51 some way. Um, and you know, a tiny
15:55 microcosm of that is I’ve been talking
15:57 on a couple of these videos about buying
15:59 a generator, a whole house generator, so
16:01 that I don’t sit in the dark when my
16:03 power is constantly out when I am in the
16:06 state of Mississippi. I don’t know why
16:07 it goes out so much, but it goes out. It
16:09 tends uh Energy, who is the power
16:11 provider in central Mississippi, seems
16:13 to have a hard time keeping the power
16:14 on. Uh, when there’s a storm, it almost
16:17 always knocks the power out. I mean,
16:19 literally, the power just goes out a
16:21 lot. like a ridiculously lot. Um, way
16:25 more than you would think in a first
16:26 world country that the power would go
16:28 out. But that whole house generator, I
16:30 don’t want to spend a huge amount of
16:32 money on that generator, not at Bitcoin
16:34 at 105 or $104,000 per coin. So, I was
16:38 at church this morning and talking to
16:40 somebody and they were commenting how
16:42 much the power had been out and I said,
16:44 “Yep, I feel the same way. My power is
16:46 out constantly.” And I told them the you
16:48 know a whole house generator uh for our
16:51 house costs about oneif of a bitcoin.
16:54 They laughed and said of course you
16:55 would think in terms of bitcoin instead
16:57 of US dollars but uh to simplify that it
16:60 uh uh a whole house generator is about
17:02 $20,000 that runs on natural gas and
17:05 basically it you know powers your house
17:07 forever uh in the event that your power
17:09 supply company cannot keep the lights
17:11 on. Um so a whole house generator in my
17:13 case is about $20,000. said that’s about
17:15 1/5if of a Bitcoin. Um, and and I told
17:18 the person before I thought about doing
17:19 this video, before I had refreshed my my
17:22 brain on the latest James Czech analyst
17:25 research, I I told them I was like,
17:26 “Yeah, I’m just not willing to spend
17:28 1/5if of a Bitcoin on a generator for my
17:30 house. Now, I am willing to spend 16th
17:33 of a gener or 16th of a Bitcoin for a
17:36 whole house generator, but not oneif of
17:37 a Bitcoin.” Well, later on as I was
17:39 thinking about it, I was like, that’s
17:41 interesting because one sixth of of
17:43 $20,000 or uh $20,000 is one6th of
17:47 $120,000. So, yes, that when Bitcoin is
17:50 $120,000, suddenly it feels like I can
17:52 afford a whole house generator because
17:55 $20,000 is one sixth of that. But at
17:57 $100,000 Bitcoin or even at $104 or
18:00 $105,000 Bitcoin, it doesn’t feel like I
18:03 can quite afford a whole house generator
18:06 at 1/5 of Bitcoin. So that’s the
18:08 difference between 1/5 of a Bitcoin and
18:10 1/6th of a Bitcoin is just I feel like I
18:13 can afford 1/6th of a Bitcoin but not
18:15 1/5if of a Bitcoin. So that’s the
18:17 difference of the psychology at Bitcoin
18:20 104,000 versus 120,000. At 120,000 a
18:23 coin, someone like me says, “Hey, I
18:26 actually would really like a whole house
18:27 generator. Uh we’ve needed one for a
18:29 long time. it hasn’t been worth less
18:31 than uh you know it hasn’t been worth it
18:34 to liquidate more than one sixth of a
18:37 bitcoin but at 1/6th of a bitcoin it
18:39 kind of makes sense now if the power
18:41 keeps going out even more in the next
18:42 day or two or week or two maybe I’ll
18:44 bite the bullet and do it anyway but so
18:46 far I’m like I’m not willing to part
18:48 with one fifth of a bitcoin I am willing
18:50 to part with one sixth of a bitcoin so
18:51 that’s the s sort of psychology that
18:53 kicks in when bitcoin’s at 120,000 a
18:55 coin is people like me are buying a
18:57 whole house generator at 120 that I
18:60 wouldn’t wouldn’t have bought at 104 or
19:01 $105,000 per Bitcoin. And that’s why it
19:04 just gets harder for Bitcoin to rise.
19:06 Now, I’m never going to stop buying
19:07 Bitcoin. I’m going to be buying Bitcoin
19:08 all the way up. I’m going to be buying
19:09 Bitcoin at the top because I buy Bitcoin
19:11 every two weeks when my paycheck hits.
19:13 Um, but more people are going to not
19:16 think that way the higher the price
19:17 gets. So, even though I’ll always be
19:19 buying Bitcoin, I will also be making
19:21 decisions like a whole house generator
19:23 um to make my life of my me and my
19:25 family better so we’re not sitting in
19:27 the heat and the humidity every time the
19:29 power goes out, which seems like it’s a
19:30 lot. So, hopefully all that helps. Uh
19:32 the uh post I posted from James Czech,
19:35 who goes by Checkmate on Substack, that
19:38 is uh I love his analysis. if you have a
19:40 lot of money in Bitcoin, um, and you
19:42 like, you know, keeping up with what is
19:45 likely to happen and why is it likely to
19:46 happen and all that, uh, his service
19:49 costs $29 a month. I obviously do not
19:51 get anything. I only recommend things
19:53 that are for free. I, you know, there I
19:56 never get anything for any of my Bitcoin
19:57 advocacy, but his uh, his stuff is
19:59 really worth 29 bucks a month if you
20:01 have a lot in Bitcoin. uh if you have
20:03 enough in Bitcoin that you really feel
20:04 like you got a lot in Bitcoin and that
20:06 it’s worth $29 a month to have a real
20:09 world feedback step by step of exactly
20:11 what’s happening with the price and
20:13 supply and demand in the market. His
20:14 analysis is stands by far better than
20:17 anyone else’s by a mile. And for me,
20:20 it’s very much worth $29 a month uh to
20:23 get that analysis, which again just
20:25 helps me understand what’s going on,
20:26 even if it’s not going to change my
20:28 buying behavior because I’m 100%
20:30 Bitcoin. So, it’s not like I’ve I’m not
20:31 going to sell it for any, you know,
20:33 unless I’m buying a generator or
20:34 something that improves the life of my
20:36 family. And I can’t buy more Bitcoin
20:38 other than every 2 weeks with my
20:39 paycheck cuz I’m 100% Bitcoin. I
20:41 literally have nothing to buy Bitcoin
20:43 with. Um, but it’s still helpful and
20:44 it’s sort of comforting to see his
20:46 analysis and it gives you a good insight
20:48 into what exactly is going on. So,
20:50 hopefully all this helps. Excellent.