00:01 Hey everyone, if you track Bitcoin a
00:03 lot, you’ve probably read VJ Boya’s
00:06 book, The Bullish Case for Bitcoin. That
00:09 book again is by VJ Boya called The
00:13 Bullish Case for Bitcoin. And in that
00:15 book, it outlines uh the Gartner hype
00:18 cycle, which is the technology adoption
00:20 life cycle that typically uh drives any
00:23 sort of new disruptive technology. And
00:25 you know that as is described in that
00:28 book, typically about every four years
00:30 there is a big pullback of sizable
00:33 proportions. Um typically exceeding 75%.
00:38 Uh most recently back in 2022 it was a
00:42 77.5% price correction in the price of
00:45 Bitcoin. And you may be wondering, wait,
00:48 uh we’re down 30% right now. Are we
00:50 going to 75% or 50%? And the answer is
00:54 no. I do not think so. But of course, I
00:56 don’t know. But let me tell you why I
00:58 don’t think so. So, first of all, those
01:00 big market corrections happen about
01:02 every four years, which would mean the
01:05 the likely next one would be 2026, not
01:09 2025. So, uh, typically the huge up
01:12 years are the years after the
01:15 presidential election, followed by a
01:17 pullback the following year. So the huge
01:19 up years in Bitcoin’s history were 2013,
01:22 2017, 2021 and you know history would
01:26 predict 2025. Obviously we have not had
01:29 that huge uplift in 2025 yet. So it is
01:33 not you know the the the every four-year
01:35 big pullback certainly would not be
01:37 predicted to be in 2025. uh typically we
01:41 would have a all-time high late in 2025
01:44 and obviously that has not happened and
01:46 we are also not late in 2025. So um so
01:51 even from timing that would indicate
01:53 that that is not likely. Uh also the
01:56 reason you get those big pullbacks is
01:57 because there’s an insane run in the
02:00 price prior to that pullback and that
02:02 run is just not sustainable for all the
02:04 reasons that are described in VA VJ
02:07 Boyott’s book the bullish case for
02:09 Bitcoin. So we have not had that big
02:12 parabolic insane hype driven euphoria
02:16 laden run that would typically precede a
02:19 huge pullback. So, for example, we spent
02:22 7 months trading between $55,000 and
02:25 $70,000 last year. In that seven months
02:28 of just sideways grind, it basically
02:32 ground out and shook out everybody that
02:35 did not want to own Bitcoin, you know,
02:37 at a price that and so there was a huge
02:40 rotation in ownership where, you know,
02:42 people spent 7 months with people who
02:44 wanted to get off the train between
02:47 55,000 and 70,000 selling to people who
02:50 wanted to get on the train between
02:52 55,000 and 70,000. Obviously, it wasn’t
02:55 exactly in that range. There were
02:56 temporary spikes above 70,000 up to
02:60 74,000. There were also very temp
03:02 temporary pullbacks that were just below
03:05 55,000. Um, in fact, one day it touched
03:08 for a couple hours a price just below
03:10 50,000. But for almost the entirety of
03:12 those 7 months, the price was back and
03:15 forth up and down between 55,000 and
03:18 70,000. Uh and then after the election,
03:21 the price jumped very quickly from the
03:24 mid60,000s into the mid 90,000s. And
03:27 we’ve been grinding around for 3 or 4
03:29 months now, uh mostly between 95,000 and
03:34 105,000. And then obviously we get this
03:36 temporary pullback that is happening
03:38 right now. But again, history would
03:40 indicate that when you have that much of
03:42 a grind, that gives a lot of people time
03:44 to get on and off the train. And
03:46 typically a grind like that would not
03:49 precede uh a major pullback. So uh also
03:53 before a pullback you typically get
03:55 these euphoric, you know, Coinbase is
03:57 the number one app in the app store.
03:59 Everybody’s buying. People are, you
04:02 know, using insane amounts of leverage.
04:04 Crazy stuff is happening in the crypto
04:06 markets. Companies are going public. The
04:08 search volume for the word Bitcoin is
04:10 going through the roof. Uh you know, all
04:12 sorts of crazy altcoins.
04:15 um which the technical term is
04:18 coins. Uh that’s what everybody calls
04:20 them, but I won’t say that out loud. So,
04:22 we’ll use the plight term, which is
04:23 altcoins, which is stuff that’s not
04:25 Bitcoin that has no use value that
04:27 people just trade for the raw
04:30 speculation and, you know, gambling of
04:31 it. Those typically go crazy right
04:34 before a huge market correction as well.
04:36 So, we just haven’t had virtually any of
04:37 that. Uh all of the major indicators
04:40 that would would indicate what’s called
04:42 a blowoff top, we just haven’t had that.
04:44 We have not had a huge multiund% crazy
04:48 rally fueled by euphoria, tons of crypto
04:52 mergers and acquisitions and insanity.
04:54 You know, that’s the sort of stuff that
04:56 becomes unsustainable and then you get a
04:57 significant price pullback. But we just
04:59 haven’t had that. Um, so my prediction
05:01 is I think, you know, 80% chance this is
05:04 just a standard pullback which will be
05:06 followed by many all-time highs. Um, but
05:09 obviously there’s some percent chance. I
05:10 don’t know if it’s 10% or 20% or
05:12 whatever it is, you know that the a
05:15 significant pullback is happening
05:16 earlier than expected. Now, even if it
05:18 does, we live in a world now with
05:20 exchange traded funds. So, there is a
05:23 much broader marketplace of uh investors
05:27 than there used to be. We also live in a
05:28 world where there is a strategic Bitcoin
05:30 reserve now in the United States and
05:32 where banks can custody Bitcoin. So,
05:34 there is a lot more potential buying
05:37 power waiting for cheap Bitcoin with a
05:40 level head and not a, you know,
05:43 trigger-happy trigger finger. Um, which
05:45 is the case often with what’s called
05:47 retail investors, which are more on
05:48 their Coinbase account, but they just
05:50 really don’t know what they’re doing.
05:51 Those people tend to buy when the price
05:53 is going crazy up and sell when the
05:56 price is going crazy down, which
05:57 basically makes the cycles worse. And
05:59 same with leverage people. the longer it
06:02 looks like Bitcoin’s in a crazy up
06:04 market, you get people trading with just
06:06 crazy leverage and which means borrowed
06:09 money and that typically, you know,
06:11 comes down like a house house of cards
06:12 at some point. So, I think all the
06:15 indicators and the very most level heads
06:17 in the world of Bitcoin, people like Lyn
06:19 Alden would all say that they don’t
06:21 think what we are in right now is a big
06:24 every four-year major price correction.
06:26 They virtually all would say if that
06:29 happens, it would be likely to happen
06:32 next year, not this year. And it would
06:34 happen after a huge price run, not the
06:36 relatively modest price runs we’ve had
06:39 as a result of the ETFs last year and
06:41 the election of Donald Trump uh who is
06:44 pro Bitcoin in November. Those uh price
06:47 rises have been relatively modest by
06:49 comparison. So uh I think we’re in a
06:52 great spot. I think it’s a great time to
06:53 buy as much Bitcoin as you can. And you
06:56 know, if I can be helpful in your
06:58 journey, let me know. I’m always here to
06:59 help. Thanks, everyone.
