Is this a “dip,“ or the start of a “bear market“? James Check has the answer!

00:02 Hey everyone, I figured I’d take my
00:04 lunch break here to give you a few
00:06 highlights of this. The latest update
00:08 from James Czech. Usually comes in on
00:10 Thursday mornings, Monday mornings and
00:12 Thursday mornings. This one arrived last
00:14 night at 8:49 p.m. And I wanted to walk
00:18 you through some highlights of it
00:20 because if you are in the position where
00:22 you have just bought a bunch of Bitcoin
00:24 above $110,000 or you’re considering
00:27 buying a bunch of Bitcoin for uh above
00:30 $110,000 or at any price from here
00:32 forward, I thought you might want the
00:34 highlights from James Czech on what the
00:36 current dip looks like and whether it’s
00:39 anything to be worried about. How does
00:40 it compare to last you know prior dips
00:43 in the marketplace etc. All right so I
00:46 am going to share my screen here and we
00:48 are going to look at this document which
00:50 is the latest from James Czech and I’m
00:52 going to read you some highlights with
00:54 my commentary. First he titles it that’s
00:56 not a dip. He said is the fear we’re
00:57 seeing about this selloff warranted and
00:60 is the damage done enough to justify
01:02 this fear? How does this compare to the
01:04 start of prior bare markets? Let’s find
01:06 out. So, as we as we’ve talked before,
01:09 most people in Bitcoin think we are done
01:11 with the four-year cycles where the
01:13 price goes through these natural
01:15 four-year cycles where the peaks were in
01:17 2013, 17, and 21, and possibly 2025, if
01:22 we still have a cycle. Most people think
01:24 there is between a 51% and a 60% chance
01:28 that we are not going to go through
01:29 those cycles anymore because the Bitcoin
01:32 uh market is much larger than it used to
01:34 be and adoption has smoothed out
01:36 significantly. But that leaves somewhere
01:39 between a 40% and a 49% chance that we
01:43 will go through a bare market that lasts
01:45 like a year or something like that at
01:47 some point. And the question everybody
01:48 has is every time every time we hit a
01:52 new all-time high, the question
01:53 everybody asks is, “Is this the top?”
01:55 And then every time the market dips,
01:57 everybody’s like, “Is this the start of
01:58 a bare market?” Everybody everybody is
02:02 like going crazy about when the price is
02:04 high, is this the top? Is this the top?
02:06 Is this the top? Because nobody wants to
02:08 buy the top and then have to, you know,
02:10 sit on an investment that’s underwater
02:11 for a year or two. Um, but then every
02:14 time it dips, everybody’s like, “Oh no,
02:15 is this the start of a bare market? Are
02:17 we going to be like through a brutal
02:18 year-long slog of downward marching
02:21 prices? And it’s just everybody’s just
02:23 all freaking out. So, James Czech, one
02:26 second.
02:30 James Czech does a much better job than
02:32 anyone else in the entire universe of
02:33 saying when the price is hitting new
02:35 all-time highs, does this feel like a
02:37 top? Is it overheated? Is there are way
02:40 too many people in way too much profit
02:41 that they just can’t resist, you know,
02:43 selling and improving their lives
02:45 somehow? And so far, every, you know,
02:48 peak we’ve hit, he’s like, “This doesn’t
02:50 feel like we’re there.” You know, this
02:52 does not feel like a huge blowoff top,
02:54 which means a very jagged, you know,
02:56 huge runup followed by a price
02:58 correction that we got in 2013, 2017,
03:01 and 2021. So, so far, every price peak,
03:04 he said, “This just doesn’t feel like
03:06 the huge blowoff top that you should be
03:07 worried about.” And so far, every dip he
03:10 has said the same thing, which is this
03:11 dip does not feel like the start of a
03:14 bare market. And so far he’s been right
03:17 because all of his analysis has uh
03:20 tracked exactly what Bitcoin has done.
03:22 Now why is this relevant? Why can’t you
03:24 just buy Bitcoin and not worry about any
03:25 of this? The answer is you can. But
03:28 human psychology is such that people
03:30 tend to not want to buy right before the
03:32 price of something goes down because it
03:35 just makes them feel bad in the pit of
03:36 their stomach even though in the long
03:38 term it doesn’t matter. So, for example,
03:41 uh if you knock a zero off all the
03:42 prices, $125,000
03:45 would be the equivalent, you know, back
03:47 five to seven years ago, of um 12,500.
03:52 And the lowest he predicts that Bitcoin
03:54 would ever go, even if this is the start
03:55 of a bare market, is like 80,000, which
03:58 again sounds insanely low, but I mean,
04:00 we dipped below that back in April
04:02 temporarily and then zoomed right back
04:05 up to 125, so who cares? Um but uh so
04:09 his his point through all of this is
04:10 like you know well let me go back to my
04:12 analogy. You know if 120,000 is 12,000
04:16 when you knock off a zero and 80,000 is
04:18 8,000 when you knock off a zero. Does it
04:20 even matter whether all the Bitcoin I
04:22 bought back in 2017 and 2018 was bought
04:24 at 8,000 or 12,000? No. All of those
04:27 numbers are so deeply in profit today
04:29 that it’s just not relevant. I wish I
04:31 had bought a lot more $12,000 Bitcoin
04:33 back then instead of waiting for lower
04:35 prices and hoping I’d get it for 10,000
04:37 or 9,000 or 8,000. Like I just should
04:39 have bought as much Bitcoin as I can and
04:41 the same will be true of this in the
04:42 future. But again, humans have a
04:44 generally low tolerance for pain and
04:46 therefore we’re going to walk through
04:48 this analysis. So uh again I’ll is this
04:52 a dip or he says that’s not a dip dot
04:54 dot dot. Is the fear we’re seeing about
04:56 this sell-off warranted and is the
04:57 damage large enough to justify this
04:59 fear? How does this compare to the start
05:00 of prior bare markets? Let’s find out.
05:03 So, I highlighted everything in green
05:05 that I’m going to read. It’s pretty
05:06 heavy on the beginning of this update,
05:07 but then I’m going to skip a huge amount
05:09 of this update as we go on. Obviously,
05:11 I’m not reading the whole thing. I’m
05:12 reading a few highlights. Um, and my
05:14 recommendation, of course, is that if
05:16 this is interesting to you, go subscribe
05:18 to James Czech’s Check onChain
05:20 newsletter, which comes out two or three
05:22 times a week. It costs $29 a month. It
05:25 is the best investment I’ve made in
05:27 Bitcoin other than Bitcoin. itself and
05:29 probably my Bit Key that secures my
05:32 Bitcoin from hackers and scammers. Um,
05:35 but it’s it’s a great investment in my
05:38 opinion. Okay. And again, when the price
05:40 dips, it it gives you good clarity of
05:42 like, should I freak out or should I not
05:44 freak out if you’re into freaking out?
05:46 All right. He says the bears remember
05:49 bulls are in, you know, optimistic.
05:52 Bears are pessimistic. Bulls, because
05:54 bulls attack with their horns going up,
05:57 think markets are going to go up and
05:58 they’re optimistic. Bears attack with
06:01 their claws slashing down, which is why
06:03 they’re a bare market is when the
06:06 market’s going down or pessimistic. The
06:08 bears are out in force. Bitcoin has
06:11 pulled back a whole dot dot dot 9
06:13 percentage points from fresh all-time
06:15 highs. And you’d think the end is nigh.
06:18 Yeah, if you go on Twitter, you know,
06:19 people are freaking out. Uh, it’s once
06:22 again so over, which happens. Everybody
06:24 claims at every little dip that it’s so
06:26 over. The most fascinating thing about
06:28 this cycle with no equal is how
06:29 remarkably scared so many investors get
06:32 during what are historically irrelevant
06:34 price dips. Back in my day, I wouldn’t
06:36 get up for anything less than 20%.
06:39 Um, so this is a good chart. I’m only
06:41 going to cover a couple charts in here.
06:43 Normally, I recommend people just skip
06:44 the charts because they’re too
06:45 complicated for, you know, mere mortals.
06:50 But this is the the price draw downs
06:51 from all-time highs throughout history
06:53 from 2016 or 2015 to the present. You’ll
06:56 see a 9% dip is nothing compared to the
06:60 draw downs as high as 77% in 2022, 84%
07:04 in 2018 and um and even higher than
07:08 that. N2%
07:10 93% I think back in 2015 uh 2014 maybe
07:14 it was 2014. So short take is he
07:16 basically like look this dip is like
07:18 nothing. In all seriousness though as we
07:21 covered in soft around the edges it is
07:23 the right time to be somewhat cautious
07:25 in the immediate term simply because the
07:26 key demand drivers of the exchange
07:28 traded funds ETFs and the treasury
07:30 companies have meaningfully slowed down
07:33 here. We’re however we’re a long way
07:36 from needing to panic and put full bare
07:38 market goggles on. In fact, I’m not even
07:41 sure if we need to put on a bare market
07:43 monle at this point uh or just yet.
07:46 Today’s po post is going to investigate
07:50 be an investigation into the damage of
07:51 the dip so far and an analysis of how
07:54 low the Bitcoin price needs to go before
07:55 we start to break the conviction and
07:57 sentiment of the bulls. I keep trying to
07:59 shorten the things I’m reading, but I
08:00 end up just gumming up the words. So,
08:03 I’ll probably just read every word,
08:04 which is smoother. Um, I’m trying to
08:06 shorten this thing because I know my
08:07 videos are way too long. Okay, in this
08:09 piece I run a damage assessment focused
08:11 on how bad the unrealized losses are in
08:13 the market. The conclusion, honestly, is
08:15 that you need a microscope to see them.
08:18 That’s a good thing. Not only is the
08:19 damage to investor portfolios
08:21 insignificant, but we also don’t have
08:23 any meaningful evidence of fear in
08:25 realized loss metrics. That means people
08:27 actually selling at a loss. When I run a
08:30 set of simulations for how low the price
08:31 would have to go before we get
08:33 concerned, I arrive at the following
08:34 framework. below the STH short-term
08:37 holder cost basis at 108,000 put one
08:41 bare market goggle on. The market has to
08:43 reach 90,000 for $90,000 before this dip
08:46 will be on par with damage at the 2024
08:49 chop solidation which was between March
08:52 and October of 2024 and the 2025 tariff
08:56 tantrum lows which happened in April of
08:58 2025. Prior bare markets, if you can
09:01 believe it, were started by a sell-off
09:03 that would have to reach 80,000 to hit
09:05 equivalent damage. Ironically, this is
09:07 also where the cost basis for the ETFs
09:10 and the company micro strategy now
09:12 strategy is located as well as the true
09:14 market mean, which is his expected bare
09:16 floor in the case of a of a bare market.
09:18 If there is a bare market, he thinks
09:20 around 80,000 is the lowest it will go.
09:23 In my honest opinion and reserving the
09:25 right to be wrong here, the current
09:27 market conditions share far more DNA
09:29 with a dip than what than with a shot
09:32 across the bow selloff which starts a
09:34 bare market. And then he always likes to
09:36 refer to his two personas. Check the
09:38 analyst is like um you know his analyst
09:41 mind and check the hodler which is hold
09:43 on for dear life. Uh hodl hold on for
09:46 dear life is basically him as an
09:49 investor in Bitcoin that’s holding for
09:50 the long uh long haul. So, as an
09:52 analyst, he says, “I’m cautious, but
09:54 somewhat optimistic. The damage is minor
09:56 at best, and until we drop below the
09:59 short-term hold your cost basis at
10:00 108,000, I remain a structural bull and
10:04 tactically expect chop solidation,
10:06 meaning we’re probably going to chop
10:08 sideways for a while while the market
10:09 digests uh price points above 110,000.
10:13 Everybody gets comfortable with that.
10:14 Everybody who wants to get off the train
10:15 gets off the train. Everybody who wants
10:17 to get on the train gets on the train.
10:18 All that.” Anyway, uh we’ve talked about
10:20 that in quite a few past videos. And
10:22 then check the hodler, which is people
10:25 like me. I’m being patient and t and
10:28 stacking Bitcoin. Uh
10:31 he calls it sat stacking, but what he
10:33 means is buying Bitcoin. Nibbles on a
10:35 tasty red days like 113,000. I’m
10:38 prepared for lower prices, but also am
10:40 ignoring the bare posters, meaning the
10:42 pessimistic posters on Twitter until the
10:44 data tells me otherwise. Uh he has his
10:46 own video. I know I do these videos
10:47 where I try to extremely simplify
10:48 everything for you, but obviously if
10:50 you’re a subscriber, you get a full
10:52 video of him explaining his stuff to you
10:54 instead of me explaining it in a
10:56 simplified manner. Again, it’s worth $29
10:59 a month if you just bought a bunch of
11:01 Bitcoin or you’re considering buying a
11:03 bunch of Bitcoin or you like watching
11:04 the price of Bitcoin and want to
11:06 understand why it does what it does,
11:07 it’s the best place to find out. I love
11:09 his content. It’s the first thing I
11:11 always read. I again, I’m reading a lot
11:14 of the early part of this thing, but
11:15 then I’m going to start skipping a bunch
11:16 of it. Uh, the game plan. Before we jump
11:18 into the charts, I wanted to outline my
11:20 thought process for how I started this
11:21 analysis. Start with the initial
11:23 conditions. We know demand is soft, so
11:24 we probably are not going to head back
11:26 to all-time highs just yet. We’re also
11:29 still trading above the short-term
11:31 holder cost basis of 108,000. And this
11:34 pullback is still really quite mild at
11:36 just 9%. uh cautious is the correct base
11:39 case, but I wanted to see if I should be
11:41 outright bearish and if not, what the
11:43 thresholds would would be to switch.
11:45 Okay, then I’m going to skip a bunch of
11:47 stuff here.
11:49 Uh and then he says, so long as the
11:51 price trades above the short-term holder
11:53 STH cost basis, it is still okay to be
11:55 bullish, optimistic, albeit cautiously
11:58 so. The market has been has seen value
12:00 in this region before, and it stands to
12:02 reason it will do so again. Uh if
12:05 however we start to trade into and below
12:07 this zone, watch out. Whilst we had
12:09 significant demand in this price range
12:11 before, that doesn’t mean future demand
12:13 will see it the same way. The lower we
12:15 go into and below this region, the more
12:17 investors will see their recent buys go
12:19 underwater, which tends to impact their
12:21 willingness to keep chasing the market
12:22 lower. He says, “My base case is that we
12:25 will find support in this region. The
12:27 first major warning signal will be
12:29 sustained break of the short-term holder
12:31 cost basis at 108,000. Should that
12:33 occur, I think we should consider the
12:36 odds of a more protracted bearish trend
12:38 to have been meaningfully increased.
12:40 Again, if it’s me and I had US dollars,
12:43 which I don’t, to invest in Bitcoin, I
12:45 would invest them right now. I just
12:47 would because updates like this tell me
12:49 I’m still fine doing that. Uh, he says,
12:51 “The good news is we’re not even close
12:53 to getting there yet. Not even close.”
12:55 Honestly, this chart actually doesn’t
12:57 look at all nasty and is in fact one of
12:60 the least nasty pullbacks of the cycle.
13:01 Again, I’m not going to cover the charts
13:03 because they’re too complicated for the
13:05 vast majority of people, even some of
13:06 them for me. Yes, this dip should have
13:09 us cautious, but so far it still looks
13:11 more like a dip than a bear. It can
13:14 certainly deteriorate and the top just
13:15 might be in, but those are also
13:18 speculations for the time being. Nothing
13:19 we have seen in this data looks any
13:21 different than any other dip we have
13:23 experienced and survived so this cycle
13:25 so far. We must stay vigilant but also
13:28 shouldn’t panic unnecessarily and at
13:29 least until there is significant
13:31 evidence to do so. Sorry, people are
13:33 just texting me constantly. Um,
13:37 uh, it’s one thing to have a coin. Uh,
13:39 then he talks about when you should
13:41 worry, which is once everybody’s
13:42 underwater on their investments by a
13:44 significant amount, people start to
13:46 freak out. It’s one thing to have a
13:47 Bitcoin underwater by 5%. And
13:49 truthfully, this is just another day in
13:51 the life of a Bitcoiner. every buy will
13:53 go underwater by some small magnitude at
13:56 least at some point. It is a whole
13:58 another story when you buy a big fat
14:00 chunk of Bitcoin and then the next thing
14:02 you know you’re down 30% or more which
14:04 is what tends to break people’s uh
14:07 optimism which results in protracted
14:10 sideways motion or downward motion for a
14:13 period of time. He says I can’t see any
14:15 red today which means we’re not even
14:16 remotely close to having serious paper
14:18 losses in the market right now. meaning
14:20 people that are underwater even if they
14:21 haven’t actually acted on that. Folks
14:23 sure are bearish on Twitter considering
14:25 the current dam damage is mild at best.
14:28 I am very thankful to have 2020 vision
14:30 but I still need a microscope to
14:32 properly see the unrealized losses in
14:33 the chart below. It is so insignificant
14:36 it’s very hard for me to be too
14:37 concerned about it at this stage. The
14:39 vast majority of Bitcoiners are still
14:41 very uh sitting pretty moisturized and
14:45 unbothered. So that he has a you know
14:47 this is him. I mean, not actually him,
14:50 but he’s like, uh, this is the meme of
14:52 who, you know, of how he feels about the
14:54 market right now and how most Bitcoiners
14:56 feel. Unbothered, moisturized, happy, in
14:59 my lane, focused, and flourishing. So,
15:02 uh, again, none of what he’s seen is
15:04 making him freak out. Um, again, this is
15:08 a long update. This is I’m reading way
15:10 more than I normally would. Normally, I
15:11 just paste a couple quotes, but um, I
15:13 thought this update was super helpful.
15:16 uh again very much worth $29 a month.
15:18 Therefore, unless this market
15:19 deteriorates a lot further, there’s a
15:21 decent enough chance that demand comes
15:22 back eventually, even if it requires
15:24 lower prices to motivate them. The ETFs
15:27 are of particular interest since they
15:29 have since they have come roaring back
15:31 to life after all our cho choppy
15:33 sideways doldrums to date. In short,
15:35 he’s saying in the past, every time
15:37 there was a dip, the demand eventually
15:39 would outrun uh the supply and the price
15:41 would go back up. So the next step is to
15:43 ask ourselves how bad does it need to
15:45 get before the real bear arrives meaning
15:47 people really get pessimistic which
15:49 takes a lot longer to overcome with
15:51 demand. Let’s start with whole with a
15:53 threshold which we can confidently deem
15:56 to be no bueno. No good. That would be
15:59 the shot across the bio selloff in prior
16:01 cycles. The shot across the bow selloff
16:04 is the horrific waterfall decline after
16:06 a market cycle peak which is so large
16:08 that it stops everyone in their tracks.
16:10 Scroll down significantly here. Skip a
16:13 bunch of charts. The market as it stands
16:15 today is experiencing almost negligible
16:18 pain. Either the bearish noise on
16:20 Twitter is hyper amplified which is true
16:23 or the commentators have grown much
16:25 softer as Bitcoin appreciates and value
16:29 seemingly also true. Meaning people who
16:31 are buying Bitcoin now just they can’t
16:33 experience they haven’t experienced the
16:35 pain of the volatility of the Bitcoin of
16:37 the past. So to them, 9% feels like a
16:40 bunch of pain when it’s just ripping off
16:43 a band-aid and not breaking your leg,
16:45 which is what it used to feel like when
16:47 Bitcoin was a lot more volatile. Things
16:49 would have to deteriorate significantly
16:51 before we reach the true bull market
16:53 slaying pain thresholds of the past. For
16:56 the time being, I still think it’s okay
16:58 to be bullish, meaning optimistic, while
16:60 we’re above the short-term holder cost
17:01 basis, if cautiously so, in advance. the
17:05 extent of bearish damage at $80,000 is
17:07 about as bad as I think a modern bare
17:09 market would get. So he’s saying even if
17:11 things deteriorate, even if it gets bad,
17:13 even if you know blah blah blah, he
17:16 doesn’t see Bitcoin going below $80,000
17:18 and again we went down to 74,000 as
17:21 recently as April. So you know, not only
17:24 do the highs march higher, the lows
17:26 march higher.
17:28 And hopefully that is okay. A few more
17:31 things. Much like the negligible
17:32 unrealized losses, again, unrealized
17:34 losses meaning someone’s underwater, but
17:37 they haven’t actually sold. They’re just
17:39 temporarily underwater. We’re seeing
17:41 very few investors capitulating at this
17:43 stage until we see serious fear and
17:46 panic. It’s hard to characterize this
17:47 sell-off as a bare market starting one
17:50 just yet. Meaning, he does not see what
17:52 he does not see this dip starting a bare
17:55 market. At least not with what he’s
17:57 seeing right now. It could devolve into
17:58 one for sure, but the facts on the
17:60 ground suggest we’re just not there yet.
18:03 All right, the concluding thoughts are
18:04 kind of long. Forgive me here. We set
18:06 out uh in this piece to assess the
18:08 damage and compare it to the bare market
18:10 starting shot across the bow sell-offs
18:12 of the past to basically see is this dip
18:14 something we need to worry about or not
18:16 really. And his conclusion is not
18:18 really. The truth is the damage today is
18:20 fairly negligible and it has to get so
18:23 much worse all capitals before we hit
18:25 even moderate pain thresholds. This
18:28 leaves us with a real dilemma.
18:31 It’s hard to call this a bare market
18:32 because the evidence as it stands today
18:34 suggests it’s far more it has far more
18:36 properties which resemble a bull market
18:38 dip, meaning just a standard dip on the
18:40 way up. By the time bare market
18:42 thresholds are hit, we could be trading
18:44 at prices of around 80,000, which is
18:46 also where I think a bare market floor
18:48 would begin being hammered out. So the
18:51 short take is like, look, at some point
18:52 the data might not look like a bare
18:54 market until we’re down at 80,000, at
18:56 which point that’s probably the low,
18:58 which again makes predicting anything
19:01 hard. Therefore, the correct approach is
19:02 to think through scenarios and
19:04 thresholds and most importantly what our
19:06 decisions will be in each case. Until we
19:08 break below the short-term holder cost
19:11 basis at $108,000, things are fine in my
19:14 book. If we do break it, then the odds
19:16 are we are probably in a bare market,
19:17 meaning it’s probably going to march
19:19 lower into the 90s or, you know, the
19:22 80s. Uh, since demand is soft, we’re
19:24 also probably not blasting off to new
19:26 all-time highs anytime soon. So, you
19:28 don’t need to have fear of missing out.
19:30 Exactly. You know, Bitcoin’s in in his
19:33 book probably not going to $140 and
19:35 $160,000 tomorrow.
19:38 Uh I know I’m sticking my neck out here
19:39 and I reserve the right to be very
19:41 incorrect here, but I I don’t actually
19:43 think we’re in a bare market. He just
19:44 outright says it. This dip is not the
19:47 bare market. I think we’re in a dip. And
19:49 I think the fear we’re seeing in in the
19:52 public, mainly on Twitter, is because
19:53 people don’t actually hold actual
19:55 Bitcoin. They hold altcoins like XRP,
19:59 Salana, Dogecoin, you know, uh,
20:03 Ethereum, or stocks and companies that
20:06 are investing in a bunch of junk coins,
20:08 which are down significantly more than
20:09 9%. He’s saying we’re seeing a bunch of
20:12 fear and panic on Twitter, but it’s not
20:14 because of Bitcoin. It’s because people
20:16 are into crypto that is not Bitcoin, and
20:19 that crypto is getting killed. So,
20:21 Bitcoin’s down 9%, but they’re panicking
20:24 because they’re not actually holding
20:25 Bitcoin. They’re they’re holding trash
20:27 that I’ve told you and James Czech has
20:29 told you not to buy. So people are
20:31 freaking out in cryptoland because
20:34 they’re not holding Bitcoin. They’re
20:35 freaking out for all their other stuff
20:36 that’s plunging like a rock when Bitcoin
20:39 is holding up nicely and is only down
20:40 9%.
20:42 He says, “If I was to hazard a guess
20:43 about the future, I think we will see
20:45 our classic 80% correction. It just
20:47 might not be in the Bitcoin price.” He’s
20:49 like, “Yeah, we’ll see an 80% price
20:51 crash in crypto, just not Bitcoin.” So
20:54 yeah, all the other trash, yeah, it’s
20:55 probably going down 80%. But that
20:58 doesn’t matter because we’re not we
20:59 don’t own all the other trash. We own
21:01 Bitcoin. And so Bitcoin is in a class by
21:04 itself. So uh anyway, then he’s got this
21:07 meme 80% bare call the ambulance. And
21:09 the guy says, but not for me. And pulls
21:11 a gun. And that’s Bitcoin, you know. So
21:13 he’s basically saying, yeah, you know,
21:15 if you’re worried about stuff crashing
21:18 80%. Then yeah, if you own a bunch of
21:20 crypto trash, you probably should be
21:22 worrying about it crashing 80%. And this
21:25 might be the bare market that crashes
21:27 all a bunch of stupid crypto 80%. Just
21:29 not Bitcoin. And who cares if the other
21:32 crash uh trash crashes because you’re
21:35 not supposed to be owning the other
21:36 stupid stuff anyway. So anyway, I will
21:39 stop sharing my screen there. So what
21:41 does this mean? What it means for me is
21:43 if I had US dollars to invest, I would
21:47 put it all in Bitcoin right now. I mean,
21:49 that’s just what I would do. Like, if I
21:50 had US dollars, I would just invest them
21:53 because I’m not going to I’m not going
21:55 to risk the upside chasing cheaper
21:58 prices on the downside. the the
22:00 differential between an asset that I
22:03 know will one day be worth a million
22:04 dollars a coin. I am not going to try to
22:07 chase, you know, 108 104 $96,000
22:13 Bitcoin. I am not going to do that
22:15 because that’s a fool’s errand to keep
22:16 trying to time bottoms and buy cheaper.
22:19 Now, if the price goes cheaper and you
22:21 suddenly want more of it, well, buy more
22:22 of it. I’ve done that numerous times
22:24 where I I thought I had the the amount
22:26 of Bitcoin I wanted. I felt good about
22:28 the amount of Bitcoin I had. Everything
22:30 was kosher and then the price dipped and
22:32 I thought, well, I don’t feel good about
22:34 the price of bit. I don’t feel good
22:35 about the Bitcoin I own right now. I
22:37 want more. The price is now on sale and
22:39 I want more. For example, earlier this
22:41 year, I was 99% Bitcoin and I had 1% in
22:45 Tesla as diversification. Like as as if
22:49 that really provides me any
22:50 diversification. But then the price of
22:52 Bitcoin dropped into the 80,000s and I
22:54 thought I don’t have conviction on
22:56 Tesla. I love Tesla, but I don’t have
22:58 conviction on it as an investment the
23:00 way I do with Bitcoin. And I was not
23:03 willing to trade te 1% of my portfolio
23:06 in Tesla stock, 99% Bitcoin. I was not
23:09 willing to trade that out at 100,000 or
23:11 90,000. But once we got into the 80,000s
23:14 and then the number clicked to a seven,
23:16 I think I I did that conversion at like
23:18 78,000 per coin. When I saw the number
23:21 start with a seven, I thought I am
23:24 actually willing to go swap out that 1%
23:26 that’s in Tesla into Bitcoin and get to
23:28 100% Bitcoin. So that’s totally normal.
23:30 If the price drops and you want to buy
23:31 more Bitcoin, great. But if you already
23:33 have money, you’ve already decided to
23:36 invest in Bitcoin and you’ve mentally
23:38 allocated it there, then in my opinion,
23:40 it’s a fool’s errand to wait for a lower
23:43 price to buy it. Because again, there’s
23:45 all sorts of people that missed out on
23:47 all sorts of upside because they were
23:49 playing those games in the past and
23:51 Bitcoin never went down to the price
23:53 that they thought they were going to buy
23:55 it at. Plus, if the price ever does go
23:56 down there, they freak out and they
23:58 don’t buy. So they’re like, “Okay, if
23:59 the price ever goes below 100, I’m in.”
24:02 Well, then the price goes below 100,
24:03 they’re like, “Oh, no. It’s falling. If
24:05 it’s falling, it’s probably going to
24:06 fall some more.” And they wait and they
24:08 wait and they wait, which is what
24:09 happened to me. I bought Bitcoin. The
24:11 initial Bitcoin I bought was around
24:13 $9,000. The lowest I ever bought Bitcoin
24:15 was 6,400. Um, you know, but I had also
24:18 bought some Bitcoin at, you know, 12 or
24:20 13,000 back in 2017, 2018. All these
24:23 numbers I’m talking about right now are
24:25 just 2017 and 2018 Bitcoin. Um, my
24:28 average cost is more like $35,000
24:30 because I bought Bitcoin a ton more
24:32 Bitcoin in 21, 22, 23, 24, and 25. The
24:35 last six years I bought, you know, a lot
24:38 more Bitcoin or I should say five years.
24:39 21 22 23 24 25 last 5 years. Uh, but the
24:43 initial Bitcoin was around 9,000 a coin.
24:45 And I told myself if the price ever
24:47 dropped in half to 4,500, I was going to
24:49 buy a lot more. But of course, like an
24:52 idiot, I did not. Because when the price
24:53 dropped, I thought, well, hey, there’s
24:55 probably a good reason it dropped in
24:57 half. Maybe it’s going to keep dropping.
24:59 Maybe this is the end of Bitcoin. And I
25:01 had not done the work to realize that
25:03 there will never be an end to Bitcoin.
25:05 Uh, it’s the future monetary system of
25:06 the world. So, I did not buy the Bitcoin
25:08 at 4,500 the way I thought I was going
25:10 to. And as a result, I have way less
25:13 Bitcoin than I would have had if I had
25:15 bought Bitcoin at 4,500.
25:17 What I should have done is say, “Hey,
25:19 here’s Bitcoin at 9,000. I I’m planning
25:22 to buy more at 4,500. Screw it. I’ll
25:24 just buy the more Bitcoin. And I would
25:26 own a lot more Bitcoin at 9,000. Then I
25:29 ultimately subsequently bought that same
25:31 Bitcoin at 20,000, 30,000, 50,000 that I
25:34 could have had for 9,000. All because I
25:37 was waiting for 4,500. And then when it
25:39 came, I didn’t buy it because it was
25:41 dropping. So same thing is going to
25:43 happen. If you’re waiting for the price
25:44 to drop, you’re either not going to pull
25:47 the trigger when it actually hits the
25:48 price you thought you were. Um, or
25:51 you’re never going to get that price,
25:52 like the price will just never arrive
25:54 and then you’re going to be sitting on
25:56 US dollars stuck not knowing what to do
25:58 with them. So, based on James Czech’s
25:60 latest update first, it’s fantastic. I
26:02 would recommend his work. Um, again, you
26:04 don’t have to understand the charts. You
26:06 don’t have to understand all the lingo.
26:07 All you just listen for is natural human
26:10 speak, which is the kind of stuff that
26:13 I, you know, read. Some of it was a
26:15 little bit, you know, more complex, but
26:17 most of it’s just, hey, we’re not
26:19 experiencing pain. You know, this looks
26:21 more like a bull market dip than a bare
26:23 market, you know, uh, uh, you know, a
26:26 bare market, uh, the start of a bare
26:28 market. Uh, so anyway, it was me and I
26:30 had US dollars, I would just dump them
26:32 in. Bitcoin feels like it’s on sale
26:34 right now. Chasing lower prices is a
26:37 fool’s errand. And um anyway, so and and
26:41 if James Czech’s conclusion was this is
26:44 the start of a bare market, plan on this
26:45 sucking for a long time.
26:49 Then my conclusion, one second.
26:53 So if Jack if James checks analysis was
26:56 this is the start of the bare market,
26:57 it’s probably going to last a year. this
26:59 is going to suck for quite a while. Then
27:00 I would do then my recommendation for
27:02 everybody would be dollar cost averaging
27:04 which is hey buy the same amount $100
27:07 $1,000 whatever you can afford $50 $5
27:11 buy the same amount every week and just
27:13 let it run and let it accumulate and you
27:15 don’t know where the bottom is. Nobody
27:17 knows where the bottom is. Um but again
27:19 if you have but we’re not there and so I
27:21 think the easy thing to do is if you got
27:23 money I would buy Bitcoin with it.
27:25 That’s what I would do. Not not
27:27 financial advice, not legal advice, not
27:28 accounting advice, not investment
27:30 advice, not tax advice, not any sort of
27:32 advice, just me. Hopefully that helps.
27:35 Again, I love James Czech’s work because
27:38 it every time his work arrives, it’s the
27:42 only time every week that I feel like I
27:44 have total and complete piercing clarity
27:48 for why Bitcoin is behaving exactly like
27:50 it’s behaving, why the price is where it
27:52 is, what I should do about it based on
27:54 where the price is, where the price
27:56 might go. It’s just it’s just fantastic
27:58 stuff. His stuff is really the best
27:60 content out there. Again, it’s $29 a
28:02 month and it’ll let you feel a lot
28:04 better about Bitcoin if you if you, you
28:07 know, have your finger on the pulse of
28:09 its vital signs of the price. Um, and
28:12 again, I’m spending a lot of time
28:13 talking about price because I’ve done
28:14 like 300 videos on things other than
28:17 price. So, you know, people want to talk
28:19 about price, I’ll talk about price, too.
28:21 Uh, so great time to buy Bitcoin. Um,
28:24 this dip looks like run-of-the-mill on
28:27 an upward trajectory. And uh anyway, if
28:30 I had US dollars, I’d buy more Bitcoin,
28:32 but I don’t. So, I’m just chilling like
28:35 his uh guy. And here, I’ll I’ll pull it
28:37 back up here. Um I like his uh I
28:41 identify with his uh with his meme here.
28:46 Where is it? Where is it? Here we go. Um
28:49 I identify with his meme where he’s
28:51 like, “Look, you know how Bitcoin
28:54 holders feel right now? They’re
28:55 chilling, unbothered, moisturized,
28:58 happy, in my lane, focused, and
29:00 flourishing. That is how I feel because
29:03 and that is how James Czech feels. The
29:06 vast vast majority, the vast vast vast
29:08 three, the vast vast vast majority of
29:11 Bitcoiners are sitting very pretty,
29:13 moisturized, and unbothered. And again,
29:16 if you just bought Bitcoin at a price
29:17 higher than today’s price, give it a
29:19 little time and you will be sitting
29:20 there feeling unbothered, moisturized,
29:23 happy, in your lane, focused, and
29:26 flourishing. Have a great day, everyone.