Is now a good time to buy bitcoin? Yes, here’s why

00:01 Now, a good time to buy Bitcoin? Yes.
00:03 But it’s important to understand why.
00:05 First of all, Bitcoin is at a $ 109,000
00:08 right now. And I personally have bought
00:10 tens of thousands of dollars of Bitcoin
00:12 at a price above $110,000.
00:15 So, while I’m way up on the vast
00:17 majority of the Bitcoin I’ve ever
00:18 bought, I am also down on tens of
00:21 thousands of dollars of Bitcoin I bought
00:22 at a price higher than today. So,
00:24 Bitcoin is uh significantly below its
00:26 all-time high of $124,000. So, it is on
00:29 sale right now, but of course, we don’t
00:31 know. It could be more on sale in the
00:34 future. And if you ask people like James
00:36 Czech, my favorite Bitcoin analyst,
00:38 what’s the lowest that Bitcoin could
00:40 ever go in the future? He would say
00:42 probably $80,000. So, you’re probably
00:44 thinking, wait, why would Joel Obamar
00:47 buy Bitcoin right now if there’s a
00:49 chance it’ll go lower? And the answer is
00:51 because of the disparity, the difference
00:54 between the upside versus the downside.
00:57 Let’s say there is a chance Bitcoin goes
00:59 down to $80,000 for a matter of hours or
01:02 days or something before it marches back
01:04 up to 150,000. So, let’s say we’re we’re
01:07 all certain that Bitcoin’s going to 150
01:09 in the next, you know, 6 to 12 months,
01:11 probably by the end of the year,
01:12 frankly, but who knows? And we’re all
01:15 certain it’s going to go to a million
01:16 dollars in the next 5 to 10 years, which
01:19 I think is a, you know, reasonable
01:21 estimation. Uh so uh and again it has to
01:24 go to more than a million dollars per
01:25 coin just to match the price of gold.
01:28 And gold is just an inert yellow rock.
01:30 And Bitcoin can be sent over the
01:32 internet and used as money in a way gold
01:34 never can and never will. So why do I
01:37 say now is a good time to buy it at
01:38 $109,000 if it could go lower? And the
01:41 answer is because nobody knows if it
01:43 will go lower. And the difference
01:45 between the upside and the downside is
01:47 so profound that it makes absolutely
01:50 zero sense to try to time it and hope it
01:54 goes lower. It just doesn’t make any
01:56 sense. Now, if it does go lower and you
01:58 decide you want to buy more Bitcoin than
01:60 you originally anticipated because it’s
02:02 on sale, great. Good for you. I
02:04 recommend that. Uh but I do not
02:06 recommend waiting with Bitcoin that
02:08 you’ve with money uh US dollars that you
02:12 have already decided that you are going
02:13 to turn into a better money which is
02:15 Bitcoin. I don’t recommend waiting for a
02:17 dip. Let me give you an example. Let’s
02:19 just use the round number of a million
02:21 dollars per coin which Bitcoin would not
02:22 even be as an asset as big as gold at a
02:25 million dollars per coin. Uh all the bit
02:27 all the gold in the world is worth $24
02:29 trillion. Bitcoin is only worth less
02:31 than 2.4 trillion. So, Bitcoin’s worth
02:34 less than 10% of the the value of the
02:36 gold in the world, which means Bitcoin
02:38 needs to go up by a factor of 10 even to
02:40 start getting close to parody. So, uh
02:43 10x is a,000%. So, Bitcoin needs to go
02:46 up a,000% even to get in the same league
02:48 as gold. Uh so, what if you think, you
02:51 know, I don’t know what the exact
02:52 percent down to 80,000 is? Let’s call it
02:54 30%. It’s not exactly 30%, but 109 down
02:57 to, you know, 80,000, I don’t want to do
02:59 the math in my head, so let’s call it
03:01 30%. Let’s say you think Bitcoin might
03:03 drop by 30%. Okay, but that tradeoff is
03:06 30%. You’re trying to capture 30% down
03:11 by potentially giving up 1,000% up. So,
03:15 let’s, you know, let’s say you walk in,
03:18 uh, you know, to any odds game where
03:20 you, you know, you could win one way or
03:22 you could lose another way and somebody
03:23 offers you 1,00 to 30 odds. You should
03:27 always take the 1,000. Like nobody wants
03:30 to hear your Saab story about how uh you
03:33 know, hey, why didn’t you buy a bunch of
03:35 Bitcoin back when it was 109? Well, I
03:38 thought it was going to go to 80. Well,
03:39 then what happened? Well, it slowly
03:41 marched to a million. Well, what’d you
03:43 do? Well, I sat on my hands because I
03:46 was waiting for 80 and it never came.
03:48 So, it’s like, wait, you missed out on
03:49 1,000% return trying to get 30% more
03:54 than a,000. So you gave up a,000% return
03:58 by trying to get 1,030%
04:00 return by buying at 30% cheaper. Like
04:04 that just makes no sense. So not only
04:07 that, but even if you were convinced
04:09 that that was the best strategy to wait
04:10 for a lower price, there is a high
04:12 probability that you would not actually
04:15 buy the Bitcoin if it actually starts
04:17 going down. And the reason is because
04:18 people freak out when prices start to
04:21 fall. So as prices fall, people get cold
04:24 feet. the Bitcoin that they committed
04:26 themselves they were going to buy, they
04:27 don’t. For example, I bought a lot of
04:29 Bitcoin back in 2017 and early 2018
04:32 around $9,000. And I committed to myself
04:34 that I was going to buy a lot more if it
04:37 was ever half that price at 4,500. Well,
04:40 guess what? Bitcoin ultimately did go
04:42 below $4,500 in the following months and
04:45 years uh temporarily, but I chickenened
04:49 out. I didn’t have time to figure out
04:50 why it was down. I was afraid maybe it
04:52 was down for good. Maybe I had missed
04:54 the boat. Maybe I was late to the party.
04:56 Uh, you know, maybe I had missed out and
04:59 I did not buy a bunch of Bitcoin that I
05:01 could have bought at 4,500. The same
05:04 thing’s going to happen to you. If
05:06 you’re thinking I could buy Bitcoin at,
05:08 you know, 109,000 right now, but I’ll
05:10 just wait. I’ll wait for 95. I’ll wait
05:12 for 85. I’ll wait for 80. there’s a very
05:15 good chance that when that number
05:17 arrives, if that number arrives, which
05:19 is not likely that it will, but it
05:21 could, that you are not actually going
05:23 to pull the trigger. So, what if you set
05:26 up a uh you know, a targeted order where
05:29 you say, “Hey, I’m going to force force
05:31 my river account to buy Bitcoin at
05:34 85,000 or 95,000 or 100,000 or
05:37 whatever.” Guess what? There’s a very
05:39 good chance as it starts dropping,
05:41 you’re going to go cancel that order
05:43 because you’re it’s going to be dropping
05:44 and you’re going to freak out like
05:46 everyone freaks out, including the all
05:48 the reasons I did not buy a bunch of
05:50 Bitcoin at 4,500. The cheapest I ever
05:52 bought Bitcoin was 6,400 because I never
05:56 bought the Bitcoin at 4,500 that I told
05:58 myself I was going to. I never did it. I
06:01 just never did it. Even if you could
06:03 eliminate the possibility that you would
06:05 chicken it out, because somebody like me
06:06 doesn’t chicken it out anymore. I mean,
06:08 once once you’ve been around Bitcoin
06:09 for, you know, eight years, it’s just,
06:13 you know, if you’re going to buy it when
06:14 it gets cheaper, you buy it when it gets
06:15 cheaper. So, even if you showed up and
06:18 gave me $1,000 or $10,000 or $100,000 of
06:22 your money and said, “Joel, I want you
06:25 to invest it. I don’t want to have the
06:27 ability to not invest it. So, I want you
06:30 to invest my money in Bitcoin at just
06:32 the right time.” First of all, I would
06:34 not do that. I’m not licensed to do that
06:35 for you. I would not do that for you.
06:37 But even if I could, even if I had like
06:39 a the license that allowed me to do that
06:41 or whatever, even if I could and you
06:44 handed me $10,000 today and you said,
06:46 “Joel, all I care about is making the
06:48 most money on my Bitcoin. You can wait
06:51 as long as you want or as little as you
06:52 want to invest it. Here’s $10,000. I’ll
06:55 come back in 10 years and you just tell
06:57 me what you did with it.” If you handed
06:59 me $10,000 of your money and my only job
07:03 was to be a good steward of your money
07:05 and to buy as much Bitcoin as I could
07:08 with that money, I would immediately buy
07:10 as much I would immediately buy $109,000
07:14 Bitcoin with your $10,000. Like
07:16 immediately. Now, if you came back the
07:19 next day and said, “Hey, I said I wasn’t
07:21 going to check in for 10 years, but here
07:22 I am the next day.” What’d you do? I
07:24 would say, “Well, I just bought Bitcoin
07:26 immediately.” And your answer would
07:28 probably be, “But wait, I told you you
07:30 could wait for a dip. I told you this. I
07:32 told you all I care about is how much
07:34 total Bitcoin I own in the long term.”
07:36 My answer is, “Yeah, the best way to
07:37 make sure you own the most Bitcoin in
07:39 the long term is to buy it at $109,000.”
07:42 Because again, going back to that thing,
07:45 I don’t want you to come back in 10
07:47 years and and uh and I say and you say,
07:49 “Hey, you know, Bitcoin’s over a million
07:51 dollars. Uh how much did my $10,000 turn
07:54 into?” And my answer would be uh
07:57 $10,000. And you’re like, why? And I was
07:60 like, well, I waited for a dip that
08:01 never happened. And so I was hoping to
08:04 get you, you know, Bitcoin at a 5, 10,
08:06 20% discount, 30% discount. Uh but it
08:09 never came. And so, uh, turns out I had
08:12 to buy the Bitcoin. I never bought the
08:14 Bitcoin. And here’s your $10,000 back.
08:16 Uh, you know, should have been 100,000.
08:18 Uh, but it’s just 10,000 because I never
08:20 actually bought it. So, there’s just no
08:23 way to win that one. There’s just no way
08:25 to win a game of trying to time a
08:27 market. You cannot time a market. It
08:29 doesn’t work for Bitcoin. It doesn’t
08:30 work for stocks. It doesn’t work for
08:32 bonds. It doesn’t work for anything. You
08:33 can’t time the market. Which is why the
08:35 saying in investing is time in the
08:38 market is better than time in the
08:41 market. So time in the market means if I
08:43 invest right now, then I have the most
08:46 time in the market because the amount of
08:48 time that that money is in bit in the
08:51 form of Bitcoin money is longer. If I
08:53 invest it immediately when I when you
08:55 give me that money, then it’s in the
08:57 market longer than if I wait a week or a
09:00 month or a year and I keep hoping the
09:02 price will hit 95,000 or 105 or 92 or 88
09:07 or 82 or whatever. That is all time I’m
09:12 not in the market. And there are
09:14 numerous people throughout the history
09:15 of Bitcoin that are that never bought
09:18 because the price never got to the price
09:20 they wanted to buy. um including a
09:23 friend of mine who sold all his Bitcoin
09:24 at $10,000. Um sorry, when it was $100
09:28 Bitcoin, he sold 100 Bitcoin at uh you
09:30 know, $100 Bitcoin. Then it went up to
09:32 $30,000, which means $300. So he sold it
09:36 at $100 and then it went up to $300 and
09:38 then he was going to buy it back if it
09:40 went lower and it never did. So, uh he
09:43 could have had 100 Bitcoin, which is
09:45 worth more than $10 million right now.
09:48 It’s about 11 million. He could have had
09:51 $11 million for $30,000. Uh because he
09:55 could have bought 30, you know, $300
09:57 Bitcoin, but he didn’t because he had
09:58 sold it all at $10,000
10:02 for uh for 100 Bitcoin, which is $100
10:05 Bitcoin. He had sold it all at $100 and
10:07 didn’t want to buy it back at $300 uh
10:09 because he was waiting for the dip.
10:11 Well, that dip never came. That the
10:13 Bitcoin was never $100 ever again. And
10:15 that’s been the story over and over and
10:17 over for numerous people throughout
10:18 history, the entire history of Bitcoin.
10:20 So, um, what would I do if I had any
10:23 money to invest right now, which I don’t
10:25 because it’s all in Bitcoin. If I had
10:27 any at all, I would buy Bitcoin at
10:29 $109,000 or $109,400,
10:32 whatever it is. I would buy it right
10:34 now. If the price if the price pops to
10:37 $115,000
10:38 in the next five minutes and I still had
10:40 dollars, I would buy it at $15,000
10:43 because there’s no other good option.
10:46 There just isn’t. If you wait, you get
10:49 you risk getting left in the cold and
10:52 the disparity of the massive upside
10:54 compared to the comparatively modest
10:56 downside of a price discount you can get
10:59 by buying it cheaper. I know
11:00 psychologically it’s what you want to
11:02 do. And I know psychologically it feels
11:05 like, “Yeah, but I’d feel a lot better
11:06 buying Bitcoin at 85 instead of 109.” I
11:10 know that’s the way you feel. But I can
11:11 tell you as someone who’s regretted for
11:14 the last 8 years not buying all that
11:16 Bitcoin at 4,500 that I told myself I
11:18 was going to, that you’re either not
11:20 going to do it or it’s never going to
11:22 come. And the high probability that
11:24 you’re never going to do it or that it’s
11:26 never going to come is so high that is
11:28 absolutely not worth giving up on a
11:31 thousand% upside chasing 5 10 20 25%
11:36 downside. It’s just not worth it. So my
11:39 recommendation stays the same. Buy as
11:41 much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it
11:42 for as long as conceivably possible.
11:44 That’s the only formula that works. And
11:46 I wish I had done that at $9,000. not
11:49 and not promise myself that I was going
11:51 to buy more at 4500 if it ever got
11:53 there. And it did and I didn’t. And I’m
11:56 all the poor for it. And so I can
11:59 continue to believe that now is a great
12:01 time to buy