Is bitcoin going up or down in the next month or two? I don’t know, but long term it won’t matter!

00:03 Is bitcoin going up or down in the next month or two. I don’t know. But
00:05 let’s talk about it. Okay. So, if you
00:07 watch a lot of my videos, you know that
00:09 my advice is the same all the time,
00:10 which is buy as much Bitcoin as you can
00:12 and sit on it for as long as conceivably
00:14 possible. And please buy yourself a Bitkey
00:16 BITKEY
00:19 WORLD. Bitcoin. Sorry. Bitkey.
00:23 https://bitkey.world.
00:25 Please buy it so you don’t get hacked
00:26 and scammed out of your Bitcoin. Uh, but
00:28 let’s talk about the ups and downs of
00:30 Bitcoin. So, the price peaked at
00:31 $124,000 like two weeks ago and is now
00:35 currently down at $108,000.
00:37 So, that’s I don’t know what percent
00:39 down that is. I don’t know 15% or
00:41 whatever that is. Um, and of course on
00:44 Twitter, weeping and nashing of teeth.
00:46 Oh no, the end is near. You know, people
00:49 are down on their Bitcoin. Blah blah
00:50 blah. Well, most of that weeping and
00:52 nashing of teeth is not people who own
00:54 Bitcoin. They’re complaining about the
00:56 price of Bitcoin. But what they actually
00:58 own is a bunch of stupid coins that are
00:60 down like 80%. And they’re upset about
01:02 it, but they don’t want to complain
01:03 about the stupid coins they’re down 80%
01:05 on because they’re embarrassed that they
01:08 bought stupid coins. And so they’re
01:09 complaining about the price of Bitcoin
01:10 as sort of a proxy for uh the fact that
01:14 they’re down. Well, again, people who
01:16 are down 15% are not typically whailing
01:18 and nashing teeth. Uh but a bunch of
01:20 people again bought stuff they shouldn’t
01:22 have bought that I told them not to buy.
01:24 Now, the people I’m talking to are not
01:25 doing that, but a bunch of people on
01:26 Twitter. They bought Bitcoin treasury
01:28 companies, not Bitcoin, but Bitcoin
01:30 treasury companies, which you shouldn’t.
01:32 They bought Bitcoin miners, which you
01:34 shouldn’t. They bought crypto tokens
01:36 other than Bitcoin, which you shouldn’t.
01:38 And you know, those things, a lot of
01:40 that’s down 70%, 80%, you know, some
01:43 ridiculous amount. And of course,
01:44 there’s whipping weeping and nashing of
01:46 teeth, but because people are
01:47 embarrassed to say that they bought the
01:48 stupid stuff because they knew it was
01:49 stupid stuff, but they thought they
01:50 could pawn it off on somebody dumber. uh
01:53 which is the greater fool theory. They
01:54 thought they could find a greater fool
01:56 to dump it on. So they don’t want to
01:57 admit that they own stupid stuff and
01:59 that they were the greater fool and so
02:00 they’re complaining about the price of
02:02 Bitcoin instead even though that’s not
02:04 actually what they’re upset about. So
02:05 there’s a lot of that going on. But the
02:07 price of Bitcoin is down from 124,000.
02:09 So the first thing I would say about the
02:11 price of Bitcoin is it just doesn’t
02:13 matter in the long term. So here’s
02:14 here’s an analogy. Let’s assume you have
02:17 a kid comes home from kindergarten and
02:20 they’re just heartbroken because they
02:22 have, you know, a kindergarten crush on
02:24 somebody in their grade and that person
02:27 doesn’t like them back, right? I mean,
02:28 these things happen. And what you want
02:31 to tell your kid is it just doesn’t
02:32 matter, right? I mean, the number of
02:34 people that marry a kindergarten crush
02:36 is basically zero. You’re just, you
02:39 know, whether the person you have a
02:40 crush on in kindergarten likes you back
02:43 just doesn’t matter in the long term.
02:45 But of course, in the moment, that kid
02:48 feels like it’s it’s all they can see in
02:50 the world. Their entire radar is filled
02:52 with this one thing, which is the person
02:54 they have a crush on doesn’t like them
02:56 back. The world is over. You know, it
02:58 everything is so sad, the end is near,
02:60 blah, blah, blah. Well, that’s what I
03:02 feel like right now with the price of
03:03 Bitcoin, which is, hey, it just doesn’t
03:06 matter right now in the long term
03:09 whether
03:10 Hold on one second here. Let me make
03:12 sure the audio is working.
03:14 I hope the audio was working for that
03:15 last video. I had a charger plugged in,
03:17 but hopefully it did not hijack the
03:19 audio. Um, so hopefully people
03:21 understand that like look, deceptive
03:23 doesn’t matter in the long term. It just
03:25 doesn’t matter at all. And who cares if
03:28 Bitcoin is down 15% in 2025? Guess what?
03:31 At every single price point throughout
03:34 Bitcoin’s entire history, it’s been down
03:36 15% a thousand times. In fact, I think
03:39 somebody ran the math when Bitcoin was
03:40 down like 10%. And they were like, “Hey,
03:42 Bitcoin’s been down 10% a total of 1,663
03:46 times, like some ridiculously high
03:49 number that Bitcoin had been down that
03:51 percent in its lifetime.” So, this just
03:54 doesn’t matter. And let me illustrate
03:56 one more way which I’ve done in other
03:57 videos but I’ll do it here which is
04:02 back when I was buying Bitcoin in 2017
04:04 and 2018 a lot of the prices were about
04:07 10% of today’s current prices. So
04:10 $18,000 is the equivalent of $10,800.
04:14 $124,000 is the equivalent of $12,400.
04:18 Just all you do is you just knock a zero
04:20 off the numbers. And it was the same
04:22 thing back then that it is now. You
04:24 know, the price drops from 12,000 down
04:26 to 10,800 and oh no, it’s the end of the
04:29 world. Everybody’s losing money.
04:30 Everybody’s all sad that they bought
04:32 Bitcoin at different prices and you
04:34 know, all that sort of stuff. And again,
04:35 it just doesn’t matter in the long term.
04:36 It what matters is how much Bitcoin did
04:39 you buy. I wish I had bought way more
04:41 Bitcoin at $12,000.
04:43 And it didn’t matter if I bought it at
04:45 $8,000, which is the equivalent of
04:46 $80,000 today, or $12,000, which is the
04:49 equivalent of $120,000 today. I just
04:51 wish I had bought way more Bitcoin in
04:53 2017 and 2018 at any price between
04:57 $8,000 and $12,000. Even if I had to go
04:59 back and every single Bitcoin I bought
05:02 to the present, I had to pay the highest
05:05 price I bought back then, which was like
05:06 $12,000, I would buy it all. Like I
05:09 spent all my money on Bitcoin back then
05:10 at $12,000 which was the highest price
05:12 in the whole range that it was trading
05:14 but it was still be been better off than
05:16 what I actually did which was I bought
05:18 some back then but I bought a lot more
05:19 at higher prices later. Um so it just
05:22 doesn’t matter because in the long term
05:24 in the long term the price will be much
05:26 higher than it is today. So it just
05:28 doesn’t matter what the price is right
05:30 now. Um so uh one other thing on that
05:33 front is the same thing happened last
05:34 year. Literally 12 months ago, the price
05:37 ran up to 73,74.
05:40 It was technically 73,800. So, let’s
05:42 call it 74,000. And then the price
05:44 traded sideways for eight months. Eight
05:47 solid months. Which means there’s a ton
05:49 of people that bought Bitcoin at 60
05:51 $68,000, $72,000, $64,000.
05:55 And the lowest it ever got was about
05:57 $50,000 for like a day or like a series
05:59 of hours. It was like a few hours was
06:02 below 50,000 or maybe a few minutes. I
06:04 don’t It was like no time at all. Same
06:06 thing. Everybody who bought it at 68 was
06:08 all bummed out when because Bitcoin was
06:10 down in the 50s and then it was in the
06:12 60s and you know they had bought it at
06:14 68 but it was trading at 62. And again
06:16 all those people think hey it sure would
06:19 have been nice to buy more Bitcoin at
06:20 68. The same is true eventually if you
06:23 bought Bitcoin at $124,000 which it was
06:26 only out for like two seconds. So let’s
06:28 assume you know a lot more people bought
06:30 Bitcoin around let’s say 118. Um, I
06:32 think the b the highest I paid for
06:34 Bitcoin was one of my paychecks hit when
06:36 Bitcoin was like 122,000. So, I bought
06:39 Bitcoin myself close to within a
06:41 percentage point or two of the highest
06:43 it’s ever been because that’s when my
06:44 paycheck hit. And I don’t ever care what
06:46 price is. I just buy Bitcoin with my
06:48 entire paycheck no matter what. Uh but
06:50 anyway, uh so again, but in retrospect,
06:54 a bunch of people right now wish they
06:56 could buy $68,000 Bitcoin, but at the
06:58 time they were all lamenting the $68,000
06:60 Bitcoin because it was at 62,000 and
07:03 they felt like it was down. Same thing’s
07:04 going to happen here. Um so that being
07:06 said, knowing all that, what do you do
07:09 if you do care about the price of
07:10 Bitcoin? You’re freaking out about the
07:11 price of Bitcoin. Okay, the number one
07:12 thing you can do is subscribe to James
07:15 Czech, uh who goes by checkmate or
07:17 checkmate with a Y. Um he has a Substack
07:21 and a newsletter and it costs $29 a
07:23 month $29. So $29 a month about a dollar
07:26 a day uh less slightly less than a
07:28 dollar a day and it’s fantastic and he
07:30 keeps you constantly appraised of what
07:33 is exactly causing the price of Bitcoin
07:35 to go up and down based on supply and
07:37 demand. He cannot predict exactly what’s
07:39 going to happen with the price of
07:40 Bitcoin, but he can give you probability
07:42 the the likelihood that the price goes
07:44 down to 80,000 versus up to 140 160,000.
07:48 uh and and even though he’ll tell you he
07:50 can’t tell which direction it’s going to
07:52 go, he can give you a lot of insight
07:54 into why the price is behaving the way
07:56 it is. So, for example, when the price
07:59 drops from 124,000 to 108,000, instead
08:02 of freaking out, you can know that, hey,
08:04 this it’s because demand for the
08:06 exchange traded funds is a little bit
08:07 soft. The Bitcoin treasury companies
08:09 have not been able to raise as much
08:11 money as they were hoping. Therefore,
08:13 their demand is softer. And you know,
08:15 you still have too many OGs with Bitcoin
08:17 that have decided that, you know, at a
08:19 price above 100,000 is a good enough
08:22 price as as any to liquidate some
08:24 Bitcoin to improve the lives of them and
08:25 their family somehow, which is the exact
08:28 same thing that happened when Bitcoin
08:29 went above $10,000. There was a ton of
08:31 people that thought Bitcoin would never
08:32 get above $10,000. And when it finally
08:34 did, they were like, “Wow, $10,000 of
08:37 Bitcoin.” It just took a long time to
08:38 overcome the selling pressure of a bunch
08:40 of people that had waited many years for
08:43 Bitcoin. Not many. I mean, I guess it
08:44 went above 10,000 in 2017. Bitcoin
08:47 started in 2009. So, some of those very
08:49 early people had waited six, seven or
08:51 eight years for Bitcoin to cross 10,000.
08:54 And when it finally did, they decided to
08:56 improve the lives of them and their
08:57 family. And that involved selling some
08:58 Bitcoin. And you know, good for them.
09:01 It’s the reason I could buy Bitcoin at
09:02 10,000 because someone somewhere was
09:04 selling Bitcoin for 10,000. But anyway,
09:06 if you want to feel better about all of
09:08 it, subscribe to James Check’s
09:09 newsletter. It comes out twice a week.
09:11 It gives you a huge amount of insight
09:13 into why things are happening. You can
09:15 ignore all the charts and graphs and
09:17 acronyms. You don’t need to know any of
09:19 that stuff. You can just listen for the
09:21 the flavor, the tone of his voice, you
09:24 know, how he talks, whether he sounds
09:26 pessimistic, whether he sounds
09:28 optimistic. And I’ve done two separate
09:30 videos on Facebook specifically about
09:33 how to read his reports, what to look
09:34 for, what you can ignore, all that sort
09:37 of stuff. So, uh, if you want to feel
09:40 better about the price of Bitcoin,
09:42 subscribe to James Check. Even if you
09:44 subscribe for a month and you can decide
09:45 if you like it or not. Um, so that’s my
09:49 recommendation. Hope all that makes
09:50 sense. And, uh, same advice as always.
09:52 Buy as much Bitcoin as you can and hold
09:54 on to it for as long as conceivably
09:56 possible. likes.