Here’s what I think is about to happen with bitcoin

00:00 Here’s what I think is about to happen
00:02 with Bitcoin between now and the end of
00:04 the year. First of all, we are at
00:06 $112,000 right now. Less than 10% from
00:10 the highest Bitcoin has ever been in
00:12 history. So, we are literally less than
00:14 10% from a new all-time high and a new
00:17 record high. We’ve been chilling down
00:18 here at 112,000, 110, 111, you know,
00:22 109. We’ve been chilling down here uh
00:25 for weeks now. something called chop
00:27 solidation, which is a combination of
00:29 the word chopping and consolidation,
00:32 which is what an asset does when it’s
00:35 basically getting used to and adjusted
00:37 to a different level. It does it on the
00:40 way up. It also does it on the way down.
00:42 And uh it’s just it takes time for all
00:44 the people who want to get on the train
00:45 and off the train to get on the train
00:47 and off the train at a different price
00:49 level. So right now in the last 24 hours
00:51 there was $ 35 billion of Bitcoin that
00:54 changed hands at between $ 1110,000 and
00:57 $112,000 per coin. $35 billion and most
01:01 of the last 24 hours included Sunday,
01:04 which is not obviously not a workday.
01:06 And the market only opened an hour ago
01:08 um or less than an hour ago for the
01:10 stock market. So obviously it’s open
01:13 longer in Asia and in Europe because
01:15 their time zones are ahead of ours. But
01:17 regardless, $ 35 billion. Now, normally
01:19 during a weekday, it’s closer to like 60
01:21 or 80 billion dollars changed hands. So,
01:24 at some point, one of two things is
01:26 going to be true. Either the people
01:27 willing to sell Bitcoin at $112,000 are
01:31 going to run out, or the people willing
01:33 to buy Bitcoin at $112,000 are going to
01:37 run out, leaving people who either want
01:39 to buy it and are willing to pay 113 or
01:42 leaving people who are not willing to
01:44 pay 112 and are only willing to pay 111.
01:47 That is the way all supply and demand
01:49 works. 100% of supply and demand is
01:52 based on exactly that. It’s supply and
01:54 demand. what price are people willing to
01:56 pay for an asset? And uh you know, if
01:59 there are more buyers than sellers or
02:01 the buyers want more Bitcoin than the
02:03 sellers want to sell at any given price,
02:05 the price goes up. If the reverse is
02:07 true, the price goes down. So my
02:09 prediction is at some point, could be
02:11 today, could be a month, could be two
02:13 months, could be who knows. At some
02:15 point, of course, in the long run, the
02:17 buyers always outstrip the sellers
02:20 because Bitcoin is only adopted by 5% of
02:23 the world. So there’s 95% of the world
02:25 that has not adopted Bitcoin, which
02:27 means there are way more potential
02:29 buyers than there are way than there are
02:30 sellers because the all of the sellers
02:32 represent 5% of the world population at
02:35 most. And most of that 5% owns a tiny
02:38 amount of Bitcoin like $50 or $200 or
02:41 such a small amount that they don’t have
02:43 the ability to move the price at all.
02:45 The 95% of the world that owns zero
02:48 Bitcoin controls the vast majority of
02:50 wealth of the world. All of those people
02:52 need Bitcoin eventually just like I do,
02:55 just like Michael Sailor does, just like
02:56 everybody does because you need a way to
02:58 store your time and energy for the
03:00 future, which is what money does. And
03:03 the US dollar as money is not working
03:05 very well for that purpose. And the
03:07 stock market is at record high
03:09 valuations right now, which means if
03:10 you’re buying stocks from the stock
03:12 market, you’re paying a higher price per
03:15 dollar of profit of those companies than
03:17 has ever been the case in human history.
03:20 Now, could the stock market keep going
03:21 up? Well, everything in the short term
03:23 can keep going up. The question is, what
03:25 about the long term? Is the stock market
03:27 massively overvalued? In my opinion, it
03:30 is. And that re results in a massive
03:32 price correction of the stock market at
03:34 some point. I certainly would not want
03:36 my money in the stock market right now,
03:38 which is why I have 0% of my money in
03:41 the stock market right now because I
03:43 don’t want to be exposed to that stock
03:44 market crash. Um, so stocks, you know, I
03:48 think are massively overvalued. Bonds
03:50 have been massively underperforming for
03:52 the last couple decades now, or at
03:54 least, I don’t know, 5 10 years. It’s
03:56 been a significant period of time that
03:57 bonds have just gotten crushed. Uh, and
04:00 the Federal Reserve is about to print a
04:02 ton of money. So, there’s a massive, you
04:05 know, lawsuits over this, uh, you know,
04:07 Fed governor that was, uh, claiming that
04:10 she was living in multiple places as her
04:12 primary residence simultaneously to get
04:15 cheap interest rates. And people have
04:16 been running around knocking on the
04:18 doors of places that she claims are her
04:19 primary residence and finding renters
04:22 living there. Um, so how’s that for the
04:24 Federal Reserve? So, it’s just
04:26 ridiculous stuff. But anyway, the
04:27 Federal Reserve is about to print a ton
04:28 of money because when you’re 37 trillion
04:30 in debt, you can’t have high interest
04:33 rates because it pay means you’re paying
04:35 through the nose to support your debt.
04:38 And the United States is paying through
04:39 the nose. We’re spending more money uh
04:41 on interest payments on the 37 trillion
04:43 in debt than we are on the entire
04:45 national defense budget to protect our
04:48 country, which is really the only
04:49 function that you could even plausibly
04:51 claim the federal government ought to be
04:52 doing is protecting us from aggressive
04:55 other nations. But we now spend more on
04:57 our debt than we do on that which is
04:59 absolutely I mean like ridiculously
05:01 insane. So my prediction is the buyers
05:04 outstrip the sellers the price goes
05:06 higher or it’ll be some sort of
05:08 catalyst. A catalyst meaning some sort
05:10 of trigger like the Federal Reserve
05:12 actually starts the massive money
05:14 printing. You know they’re always prices
05:16 the dollar’s value is always going down
05:18 and the total amount of money worldwide
05:21 is going up. But if the question is what
05:23 is the speed and if the Federal Reserve
05:25 cuts interest rates which there’s like a
05:26 98% chance according to prediction
05:29 markets that they will cut interest
05:30 rates um it’s either next month or
05:33 October it’s either September October
05:34 whenever it is obviously that uh pushes
05:37 a bunch of US dollars into the system
05:39 and they start slashing around and those
05:41 US dollars cause inflation to rise and
05:44 uh anyway they tend to push the price of
05:46 Bitcoin way up because uh everybody
05:49 tries to get out of the US dollar and
05:51 into something that’s not the dollar.
05:53 Um, which is what, you know, ultimately
05:55 triggers hyper hyperinflation. Even
05:57 though the US dollar is not close to
05:58 hyperinflating, it is still bad to keep
06:01 your money in US dollars because they
06:03 lose value so much. Uh, and inflation’s
06:05 creeping up, unemployment’s creeping up,
06:07 and the Federal Reserve is about to
06:08 print a bunch of money, which means um
06:11 everything’s going to get I mean it
06:14 means it’s going to become even less
06:15 desirable to not be in Bitcoin. So
06:18 regardless whether it’s a specific
06:19 catalyst or whether they buyers just you
06:22 know outnumber the sellers and finally
06:24 people get tired of selling Bitcoin at
06:26 110 111 112 whatever the price goes up.
06:29 So at some point there will be a
06:30 significant reset. The price will jump
06:32 from you know 112 to 135 140 something
06:37 like that. And everybody will be saying
06:40 well uh now I believe in Bitcoin. Now
06:42 I’m a true believer. This is exactly
06:44 what I needed to see. You know I just
06:47 needed to see a huge uptick. I needed to
06:49 see Bitcoin respond to the insanity of
06:52 the outside world. Now I’m now it’s time
06:55 for me to get in. and they’re all going
06:56 to come to me and they’re going to say,
06:57 “Joel, I’m I’m ready. The Federal
06:59 Reserve’s printing a ton of money and uh
07:02 I’ve been watching this thing since
07:03 $90,000 or $60,000 or $110,000 and now
07:08 at 140 I’m ready.” But of course, they
07:10 will feel like Bitcoin’s expensive. And
07:13 you know, they’ll be reluctant to buy
07:15 Bitcoin because Bitcoin’s they’re going
07:17 to perceive it to be expensive at
07:18 $140,000.
07:20 And of course, my judgment is always,
07:22 hey, it’s going to a million. So, you
07:24 know, 120, 110, 140, like those are all
07:27 pretty small numbers compared to a
07:29 million a coin. So, if it’s going to a
07:30 million a coin in the next 10 years,
07:32 well, no other asset’s going to do that
07:34 for you. At least no other major asset
07:36 that doesn’t have insane risk. So, still
07:38 seems like a fantastic time to hold
07:40 Bitcoin. But they’re going to say,
07:42 “Yeah, but it’s, you know, it’s
07:43 expensive. It’s expensive. It’s
07:44 expensive.” And I’ll tell them, well,
07:46 you know, welcome to the club. Everybody
07:48 who ever bought Bitcoin thought it was
07:50 expensive. Every Bitcoin I ever bought
07:52 felt expensive when I bought it because
07:54 someone before me bought it for less.
07:56 And of course, you know, even if you
07:58 were mining Bitcoin the day it was
08:00 invented and released in on January 3rd
08:02 of 2009, you were still spending
08:04 electricity and computational power to
08:07 make your computer run hot and drive up
08:09 your electric bill to get Bitcoin. That
08:11 technically was free, but it wasn’t free
08:12 because you had to run you had to burn
08:14 up electricity to get it, which is why
08:16 it’s, you know, it’s provably scarce.
08:18 Um, and you would have thought, why am I
08:20 burning electricity for something that
08:22 doesn’t even have a price yet? And so, a
08:24 lot of people turned their computers off
08:25 and did not mine Bitcoin because, you
08:27 know, Bitcoin did not have a price yet.
08:29 And, you know, it costs electricity to
08:31 get some. So, anyway, so everybody has
08:34 who has ever bought Bitcoin or gotten
08:37 Bitcoin thought they were getting it
08:39 expensively. And the truth is, you know,
08:41 in the long run, every Bitcoin that
08:43 looked expensive ends up looking cheap
08:45 in the rearview mirror. But anyway, so
08:47 those people, they will end up buying
08:49 Bitcoin at $140,000. Inevitably, Bitcoin
08:52 will come back and bounce around between
08:54 125 and 135 or something like that for a
08:57 little while and they will be moping
08:59 about how the Bitcoin they bought is
09:00 expensive and they’re underwater on
09:02 their investment and it’s been all of 27
09:05 days and they’re not rich yet and what’s
09:06 wrong with Bitcoin and here we go again.
09:08 Now, how do I know this pattern will
09:11 happen? Because it’s the pattern from
09:12 everybody who’s ever been onboarded to
09:14 Bitcoin. they always buy after a big,
09:17 you know, run up in the price because
09:19 they use the runup in the price to
09:21 validate that it’s a good asset. What
09:24 they should do is validate that it’s a
09:26 good asset by researching Bitcoin and
09:28 understanding Bitcoin. But because
09:30 people don’t have the time to do that or
09:31 the interest to do that, they use the
09:33 price as validation. Well, that means
09:35 they are validated in how awesome
09:37 Bitcoin is after a runup in price, which
09:40 means they’re buying after a runup in
09:41 price. And when you buy after a run up
09:43 in price, then you’ve got to deal with
09:45 chop consolidation, which is right where
09:47 we’ve been for the last month or two,
09:50 where it chops around at a price higher
09:52 uh lower than its all-time high. Still
09:54 high. I mean, heck, 10% away, less than
09:57 10% away from the all-time high. Like,
09:59 by every other conceivable measure,
10:01 that’s an asset that’s doing fantastic.
10:04 But of course, that’s not how people
10:05 think. People think, “Yeah, but I bought
10:07 it at 115 and it’s down at 112.” It’s
10:09 like, well, when did you buy it again?
10:11 Well, 27 days ago. Well, what did you
10:14 think? Like, no investment is guaranteed
10:17 to be up in one month. Like, what you
10:20 know, Bitcoin is the highest it’s ever
10:21 been other than the last 100 days. So,
10:23 if you bought Bitcoin anytime prior to
10:26 the last 100 days, you’re up on your
10:27 investment. But guess what? There are
10:29 people who bought it in the last 100
10:30 days and they’re feeling like, you know,
10:33 mopey that they’re down on their
10:34 investment. And it’s like, it’s been 100
10:36 days. You know, one, you could buy more
10:39 Bitcoin at 110 or 111 or 112. So, you
10:42 don’t have to be down in your Bitcoin.
10:44 You can buy new Bitcoin and if you
10:46 bought it at 110,000 yesterday, you’re
10:48 up on up at 112,000 a day. So, dollar
10:51 cost average down, which means buy more
10:53 at a lower price so that the average
10:55 price you paid is lower. You can always
10:57 do that. Um, so, uh, but anyway, so
11:01 there will be a catalyst or the sellers
11:03 will be outrun by the buyer or something
11:05 like that. Of course, there could be a
11:07 dip. Also, as I’ve always said about
11:08 Bitcoin, it goes up and down on its way
11:11 up. Now, I said up twice and I said down
11:13 once. So, eventually it always goes up
11:15 because it goes up more than it goes
11:17 down. But that does not mean it can’t go
11:19 down before it goes up. So, if the
11:21 sellers uh if the willingness for people
11:25 to sell at 112,000 exceeds the
11:27 willingness of people to buy in the
11:29 short term at 112,000, then the price
11:31 will go down. How low could it go? Well,
11:33 James Czech, my favorite Bitcoin analyst
11:35 who runs the Check onChain newsletter
11:37 for $29 a month, he will tell you
11:39 exactly with all of his analysis the
11:42 probabilities of Bitcoin dipping to
11:43 different prices. Uh, at the end of the
11:45 day, he will say and I will say nobody
11:47 knows. Nobody knows what’s Bitcoin is
11:49 going to do in the near term. All that
11:51 matters is the long term. And in the
11:53 long term, it goes way up. So, in the
11:55 long term, it makes sense to own as much
11:56 as you can and hold on to it for as long
11:58 as possible because the longer you hold
11:60 on to it, the higher probability that
12:02 you are up a higher percent. I mean,
12:04 it’s a really simple formula. It really
12:06 works that simply. Uh, so anyway, I
12:09 think by the end of the year, there’s
12:11 going to be a bunch of people who wish
12:12 they had bought more Bitcoin right now.
12:14 And all of the new people that bought
12:15 Bitcoin after the next big price rise
12:17 are going to be exactly where the people
12:19 are right now who bought Bitcoin in the
12:21 last 100 days, lamenting the fact that
12:24 they bought expensive Bitcoin and it’s
12:26 trading slightly below their price. And
12:28 of course, if they wait just a little
12:30 bit, if they wait, they’ll be way up.
12:32 Bitcoin is up more than 100% in the last
12:34 12 months. So any Bitcoin you owned one
12:37 year ago today has more than doubled in
12:40 value in the last 12 months. Now what
12:42 asset has doubled in value in the last
12:44 12 months? That’s insane. That’s
12:45 incredible performance. But again,
12:47 nobody wants to zoom out that far. They
12:49 want to focus on the Bitcoin they bought
12:50 27 days ago. I’m just making that up.
12:52 I’m just picking a random round, you
12:54 know, a random odd number. 27. You know,
12:57 they all want to focus on the Bitcoin
12:58 they bought 27 days ago, not the Bitcoin
13:00 that they bought one year ago that has
13:02 more than doubled. So all of investing
13:04 is about being patient. All about it,
13:07 you know, all of the money in investing
13:09 is in the waiting. That’s what uh
13:11 Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett and
13:13 all the famous investors say is look,
13:15 you make all the money in the waiting.
13:17 You know, you buy and then you wait. And
13:18 you make all the money in the waiting.
13:20 You don’t make all the money in the
13:21 trading. You don’t make all the money in
13:23 the buying and selling. We make it in
13:24 the waiting because then the waiting is
13:26 when you when the asset has time to go
13:30 from the price you paid for it to a
13:32 higher price. And if you wait long
13:34 enough with an asset that the world
13:35 really needs like Bitcoin because it’s
13:38 money and the world needs money and it’s
13:39 a better money than any money that’s
13:40 ever existed, then you are in a better
13:43 spot long term. So if I had any US
13:46 dollars, I don’t because I’m 100%
13:48 Bitcoin. I own, you know, no stocks, no
13:50 bonds, and just barely enough US dollar
13:53 cash that I don’t bounce a check to a
13:55 babysitter or a contractor. Um, you
13:58 know, because some of them demand, you
13:60 know, a paper check because they don’t
14:02 know any better and I can’t convince
14:03 them to take Bitcoin yet because it’s
14:05 such a new technology that they’re just
14:07 not there yet. Um, so I I don’t have any
14:09 US dollars I could uh buy Bitcoin with.
14:12 you know, in another seven days, my, you
14:15 know, twice a month paycheck will hit
14:16 and I will buy Bitcoin in seven days
14:18 from now, no matter what the price is. I
14:20 will absolutely buy it no matter what.
14:22 Um, but, you know, that’s 7 days from
14:24 now. Right now, I do not have any US
14:26 dollars I could buy Bitcoin with. If I
14:28 did, I would buy it at $112,000. And I
14:31 would be patient. The most I’ve ever
14:32 paid for Bitcoin is, I think, $122,000,
14:35 which is just happened to be the price
14:37 when one of my paychecks hit. I
14:39 immediately bought $122,000 Bitcoin uh
14:42 with my paycheck and obviously I’m 10%
14:45 down or less. I’m 8% whatever it is down
14:48 on that investment. Uh but I don’t care
14:50 because I’ve been buying Bitcoin at all
14:52 different prices. And if you buy Bitcoin
14:54 at all different prices long enough, you
14:55 end up with an average price of what
14:57 you’ve paid for Bitcoin substantially
14:58 below the current price. So, you know,
15:01 in my case, my average price for all the
15:03 Bitcoin I’ve ever bought from 2017 to
15:05 the present is about $35,000. So
15:07 obviously I’ve more than tripled my
15:09 entire net worth because my average
15:11 price is $35,000
15:13 and I’ve got 100% of my net worth in
15:17 Bitcoin. So if my average price is
15:19 35,000 and I’m 100% exposed, then that
15:22 means I have more than tripled my entire
15:25 net worth other than private company
15:27 stocks which are obviously not part of
15:28 that. But as far as like liquid assets,
15:30 stocks, bonds, you know, cash, all that
15:33 sort of stuff, I have more than tripled
15:35 my net worth. Um, so the same will be
15:37 true for you at some point if you buy
15:40 Bitcoin now at 112,000 and then you buy
15:42 some more at 118 and more at 126 and you
15:46 know at some point in the future it’ll
15:47 be 500,000 per coin but your average
15:50 price will be 180,000 per coin or if you
15:52 started accumulating last year the year
15:54 before hopefully your average price will
15:56 be substantially lower than that. There
15:58 are a lot of people with a lot of
15:59 Bitcoin that bought it last year during
16:02 the eight months when Bitcoin was
16:04 between $55,000 and $70,000 and they are
16:08 in the ballpark of doubled their money
16:10 over the last 12 months and they bought
16:12 a substantial amount in that time frame.
16:14 So good for them. Double their money in
16:17 12 years. Sorry, in 12 months and you
16:20 know should 10x their money in less than
16:22 10 years. So anyway, um that being said,
16:26 things are pretty quiet right now
16:27 because anytime Bitcoin’s not doing
16:28 exciting up motions, everybody, you
16:31 know, seems like they immediately lose
16:32 interest because that’s the same with
16:35 every investment. The moment it’s not
16:37 going up, everybody’s like, “Oh, it’s
16:39 boring. It’s boring.” Every investment
16:41 is boring 99, you know, 95% of the time
16:45 and super exciting like 5% of the time.
16:48 I mean, the vast majority of the time,
16:50 Bitcoin is roughly the same price or
16:53 gone up a little bit or down a little
16:55 bit and then every few months you get
16:58 these two, three, four days in a row
17:00 where it goes up 10 or 20%. And that is
17:04 where the gains are. The gains are in a
17:06 very small number of days, you know,
17:08 every quarter, every other quarter. I
17:10 mean, it’s just you’ve got to be you’ve
17:12 got to own as much Bitcoin as you can
17:14 when those gains happen because what
17:16 everybody does is they’re like, “I’ll
17:18 wait and see if Bitcoin’s the real
17:19 deal.” And then it goes up 20%. And
17:22 they’re like, “Okay.” Then they buy it.
17:23 And then they’re like, “Okay, but now
17:25 I’m underwater.” And it’s like, “Well,
17:27 you could have been up 20%.” But they’re
17:29 not up 20% because they actually didn’t
17:31 buy during that chop solidation when it
17:34 was on sale. So, I think Bitcoin’s on
17:36 sale right now. Uh, but a lot of people
17:38 are going to wait for the next huge
17:39 price rise before they pull the trigger
17:41 on their next trunch of Bitcoin
17:43 investment. In my opinion, they should
17:45 buy more right now. Uh, if you’re having
17:47 trouble buying more Bitcoin because of
17:48 limits in Coinbase or River in the
17:50 amount that you can buy at one time, do
17:53 a wire transfer from a bank. Uh, your
17:56 bank will let you wire transfer. And
17:59 Coinbase and River both uh, give you
18:01 instructions on how to do that. and you
18:03 basically walk into your bank and you
18:04 say, “I want to wire X amount of money
18:07 uh to this and it’s your account at
18:09 Coinbase or River.” And that is
18:11 unlimited. There are no limits on the
18:13 amount of money that you can wire and
18:15 subsequently buy Bitcoin. Uh so there
18:18 are limits if you link a bank account.
18:20 There are limits especially if you use a
18:22 debit or a credit card. Those limits are
18:23 very low. Uh linking a bank account
18:25 typically works a lot better. Um, and
18:28 typically the limits are high enough if
18:30 you link a bank account for most people.
18:31 But if you need a higher amount than
18:33 your bank account limit, uh, then just
18:36 set up a uh or do a wire transfer, go to
18:39 your bank or go log into the mobile app
18:41 on your bank or whatever. Uh, but you
18:43 can also just go to a bank branch and
18:45 they can do a wire transfer to river or
18:48 coinbase and you can buy more Bitcoin.
18:49 So, uh, exciting times are ahead, I
18:52 believe, between now and the end of the
18:53 year for Bitcoin. It is just a matter of
18:55 time and it is just a matter matter of
18:57 patience and that is the case with every
19:00 single good investment that has ever
19:02 existed in the world. Have a great day
19:05 and a great week everyone.