Can you game the system by waiting for a
price drop in the price of Bitcoin to
buy cheaper, but then if it doesn’t
happen, buy Bitcoin at a more expensive
price anyway? The answer is no. You
can’t game the system that way. Let me
tell you why. Okay, first of all, I just
uh did a video about the fact that there
has to be an 84% chance that Bitcoin
will drop to $80,000 to be worth missing
out on the entire upside between here
and a million dollars again. And then
because the reason it’s uh that
probability is even there is because you
might get it cheaper and therefore have
more upside. But obviously the vast
majority of probability is that it’s not
going to happen because the probability
that Bitcoin is going to hit $80,000 is
way less than 84%. So statistically it
makes zero sense to wait and hope
Bitcoin gets down that low. But some
people think well but I could game the
system. I could wait for $80,000
Bitcoin, but if it doesn’t come, then I
could buy back in Bitcoin on the
momentum of $110,000 or $120,000.
So essentially, once it became clear I
wasn’t going to get a dip, I just buy at
a higher price anyway, and I still had a
good shot of getting a dip. So, first of
all, the math is still not in your
favor. Sorry, but it’s not. So yeah, the
probability that it would need to hit
$80,000 drops from 84% to somewhere
between 41 and 52%. Because again,
you’re not missing up on the missing out
on the entire rise up to $1 million.
You’re just missing out on a big chunk
of it from $95,000 up to $110 or
$120,000 and then getting back in the
saddle. But even though statistically
it’s not as big of a loser as just all
or nothing at $80,000, it’s still a
statistical loser. But there’s a bigger
problem which is that you’re not going
to execute that strategy properly even
if you think you are. And the reason for
that is that cryptocurrency buying
platforms will not let you set a buy at
a price above the current price. They
are smart enough to realize that nobody
wants to do that. Nobody goes into
Coinbase right now and says, “I want to
buy Bitcoin if it hits $80,000.” Now,
they’ll let you do that. They’re like,
“Sure, you can set what’s called a limit
order. You can set up a limit order and
say if Bitcoin hits $80,000, I want to
buy so much of it, but it will not let
you set up a buy to buy Bitcoin at
$110,000 or $120,000 right now because
that price is above the current market
price. And nobody wants to set a trigger
order to buy it more expensively than
they can right now. So, what people do
who try to game the market this way is
they say, “Okay, I’m going to set up an
order at $80,000.” Well, first of all,
they don’t even do that. People who are
waiting for a dip almost never have the
courage to set up a buy order that
triggers automatically. So what they do
is they say, “I’m going to I’m I’m going
to commit to myself.” Now, if they
actually committed to themselves, they’d
go in Coinbase or River and set up a
limit order that triggered automatically
at $80,000. But they’re not going to do
that because they don’t have the courage
to do that, which is why this strategy
fails. I’m going to explain the other
part of the reason the strategy
consistently fails. But okay, so the
first thing is they’re going to tell
themselves that they’re going to buy it
if it hits 80. But the problem is if the
price drops, it’s going to be scary. And
if the price hits 80, they’re going to
suddenly decide that it’s falling so
fast that it needs to hit 75 or it needs
to hit 70. The short take is they’re
going to keep dropping the minimum price
uh that it has to hit before they pull
the trigger. And the price is always
going to be a price lower than it
actually is, and they’re never going to
pull the trigger. Okay. Okay, so the
first the first way the strategy fails
is they don’t actually set up an
automatic buy order. So when their magic
price gets hit, they don’t actually buy
it. Or if they do set up an automatic
buy order, they go in there and cancel
it as the price is dropping toward it
because they freak out and think the
price is going to drop lower and they
don’t want it to trigger automatically.
So this strategy fails consistently
because people fail to set up an
automatic buy order at their target
price. And even if they do set up an
automatic buy order at their target
price, they chickenen out and they go
cancel the buy order before it hits
their target price because it’s falling.
And when the price is falling, it’s
scary. And so they go cancel the
automatic buy order. Okay, but let’s
assume they actually do have an
automatic buy order set up and they
don’t chickenen out. But what happens is
then it doesn’t hit the automatic buy
order, which means now you’re committed
to part B of your plan, which is to buy
anyway if the price rises to 110 or
$120,000.
The problem is you are now
psychologically committed to $80,000.
That is the price you already decided
you were going to buy more Bitcoin, even
though, again, you probably weren’t
because it probably wasn’t going to hit
that number. And even if it did, you
were probably going to chicken it out
and not buy it anyway, which is what
always happens. But anyway, let’s assume
you are now supposed to execute plan B,
which is buy the Bitcoin at 110 or
120,000 because it became clear that the
dip you were waiting for never came. The
problem is that part of your strategy is
going to break down also. And the reason
for that is you’re going to keep waiting
for that $80,000 dip. When the price
bounces back up, all of your psychology
is going to tell you, well, it didn’t
dip right now, but it’s still going to.
It’s going to spike up to 110 and then
it’s going to dip down to 80,000. This
is just a temporary bounce. This is a
dead cat bounce. And if I wait long
enough, I’m going to get my $80,000. So,
the price is going to hit 110 and you’re
not going to buy it at 110 because
you’re going to think that the dip down
to 80 could still happen. Plus, at this
point, you are psychologically committed
to $80,000 Bitcoin and now the price is
110. And that seems really expensive.
Even though in retrospect back from a
million dollars, it’s really cheap by
comparison, but again, it seems
expensive because you psychologically
were locked onto that $80,000 that never
happened. Okay? So, you don’t buy it at
110. Then it goes to 120 and you don’t
buy it at 120, which was your third, you
know, second backup plan. Your plan C,
you know, plan A was to buy it at
80,000. If it didn’t hit plan A, you
were going to buy it at 110, which is
plan B. Now, you’re on plan C, which is
you didn’t buy it at 110. And so you’ve
told yourself you’re going to buy it at
120 because at 120 you’re pretty sure
it’s not going to go back down to
80,000. But you’re not going to buy it
at 120 either because remember none of
the platforms will let you set up an
automatic buy order at a price higher
than the current price. Meaning you have
to commit to yourself that you’re going
to do it and you actually have to follow
through. But you’re not going to follow
through because everything inside your
body is going to say, “I should be
waiting for the $80,000 dip that never
came.” Or maybe I should not buy the
Bitcoin after all because now it’s
$120,000 and I could have bought it at
95. So you’re going to sit on the
sidelines. This happens over and over
and over. So the strategy of So let me
summarize this. The strategy of waiting
for a dip and then planning to buy
anyway if the dip never happens is a
losing strategy because it either never
hits your buy price or you don’t buy it
even if it does hit your buy price or
you don’t buy it on the rebound even
though you committed you were going to
because it seemed expensive. This
happens constantly. People are cheating
themselves out of Bitcoin all the time.
So, I had a friend who had a bunch of
Bitcoin, thousands of Bitcoin, and once
he had traded it away on all sorts of
random coins, he still had 100 Bitcoin
left. Now, 100 Bitcoin right now is
worth $10 million. But he sold 97 of his
100 Bitcoin, all but three. He sold them
at $100 per coin, because the price had
been volatile, and he was planning to
buy them back at a price cheaper than
$100 per coin. So, he sold, let’s call
it 100 Bitcoin. There’s actually 97 of
the hundred, but he sold 100 Bitcoin,
planning to buy them back at a price
cheaper than $100. But the price instead
of going from $100 down so he could buy
it back cheaper, went up. And the next
time he checked, it was at $300. And you
would think, oh, he made a mistake. He
would recognize the mistake, but at
least it’s $300 Bitcoin and he could
still own a bunch of $300 Bitcoin. But
of course, he did exactly what I would
have done, exactly what you would have
done, and exactly what everyone would
have done, which is he did not want to
buy $300 Bitcoin because he had just
sold $100 Bitcoin. And now it seemed
triple its current the price he had
thought it was even worth when he sold
it. So, he was going to sell it and buy
it back cheaper, which is the same as
waiting for a dip. Whether you already
own the Bitcoin and you sell it, waiting
for a dip, or whether you don’t own the
Bitcoin and you’re waiting for a dip to
buy it in the first place, the
psychology is is the same, which is when
the price moves against you, meaning it
goes up while you’re waiting for a dip,
your psychology tells you it’s now
expensive and you should not buy, which
is exactly what he did. So, he never
bought that Bitcoin back. So, if you
fast forward to today, he owns three
Bitcoin. He could have owned a hundred.
He started out with more than 3,000
Bitcoin before he uh traded them for
Dogecoin. Uh and then of course
Dogecoin, you know, crashed and he lost
the vast majority of all the wealth that
he would have right now disappeared with
Dogecoin. And the rest of it, the vast
majority of the rest of it, 97% of the
rest of it, um was uh lost on a strategy
of selling the Bitcoin, waiting for a
dip, planning to buy it back. Dip never
came, never bought the rebound, and now
he’s got three Bitcoin instead of 100.
uh that has played out with so many
people in so many situations. It
constantly happens. So, do not play that
game. Do not wait for a dip planning to
either buy the dip because you won’t or
it’ll never hit your dip price or
planning to buy the rebound if the dip
never happens because you’re not going
to do that because when it rebounds,
it’s going to seem expensive and you’re
still going to be waiting for the dip
that never happened and you’re just
going to cheat yourself out of a lot of
Bitcoin. Many millions of people have
gone before you. Many millions of people
have cheated themselves out of Bitcoin
that they later regretted not buying.
And every one of them came up with some
clever plan to beat the system when what
they should have done is buy as much
Bitcoin as they could and hold on to it
for as long as conceivably possible. The
only strategy that consistently 100%
wins. Buy as much Bitcoin as you can.
Hold on to it for as long as conceivably
possible. That is the formula. Buy as
much Bitcoin as you can. Buy it as soon
as possible. Hold on to it for as long
as possible. And it’s just that simple.
Do not outsmart yourself and end up with
way less Bitcoin. Happens all the time.
Please be kind to yourself. Buy the
Bitcoin and sit on it. It’s that simple.
