Bitcoin is $113,000 “Air pocket” is between $112,000 and $115,000 Should you be worried? NO

00:01 Bitcoin is in the air pocket between
00:03 $112,000 and $115,000.
00:06 Right now, it’s trading at about
00:08 $113,000.
00:10 Should you be worried? Is it down? Come
00:12 on, people. Nothing’s wrong with
00:13 Bitcoin. Nothing’s ever wrong with
00:15 Bitcoin. Yes, we’re like 10% below the
00:17 highest we’ve ever been in history. But
00:19 we’re at record highs compared to
00:22 everywhere other than the last three
00:24 weeks. So, if your definition of an
00:26 asset being down is it’s down from
00:29 everything, it’s down only from prices
00:32 in the last three weeks, that’s pretty
00:34 amazing because that means in the entire
00:36 16-year history of Bitcoin, you’re up
00:39 compared to every other price other than
00:41 the last 3 weeks. Okay. So, why are we
00:44 down? Well, we’re down because of supply
00:45 and demand. Because things go up and
00:47 down on their way up. Same with every
00:49 stock. Same with every bond, every
00:51 commodity. Doesn’t matter how valuable
00:53 something is. Even gold, the 5,000-y
00:55 old, you know, precious metal, it goes
00:57 up and down on its way up. Bitcoin goes
00:59 up faster and than anything else in the
01:03 long term, but it goes up and down on
01:04 its way up. Okay? So, it goes down
01:07 because people there’s more supply than
01:09 demand temporarily, more selling
01:11 pressure than buying pressure. And
01:13 that’s primarily due to the Federal
01:15 Reserve earlier this week deciding not
01:17 to change interest rates. I think that
01:19 decision was earlier this week.
01:20 Regardless, it was, you know, widely
01:22 understood for whatever, you know, news
01:25 sources or whatever that the Federal
01:26 Reserve is not going to lower interest
01:28 rates, which means interest rates are
01:30 still high, which means Bitcoin has to
01:32 compete with the federal government
01:34 paying more than 4% interest for you to
01:37 do nothing with your money. So, the
01:39 federal government is basically bribing
01:40 you to do nothing with your money. And
01:42 Bitcoin has to compete with that. Now,
01:44 Bitcoin has been competing with high
01:46 interest rates ever since it was below
01:48 $20,000. So, we’ve gone from below
01:50 $20,000 to $113,000
01:53 in a high interest rate environment. So,
01:56 is it the end of the world if we have
01:57 high interest rates a little while
01:58 longer? Who the heck cares? We’ve
02:00 already we’re up like five or 600% in a
02:03 high interest rate environment. We can
02:04 keep going in a high interest rate
02:06 environment, but there’s lots of
02:08 short-term traders that are trading
02:10 trying to day trade in and out of
02:12 Bitcoin. And so, when you get news that
02:14 the Federal Reserve is not going to
02:15 lower interest rate, they freak out. and
02:18 they dump their bitcoin etc. Uh the
02:21 other phenomenon which I want to speak
02:22 specifically about is the concept of an
02:24 air pocket. What is an air pocket? How
02:26 do they emerge and what are they? Okay,
02:30 so an air pocket happens when a price
02:33 very quickly cuts through a price level
02:38 allowing very little time for people to
02:40 buy or sell at that price level. So in
02:43 this case, we went from bounced around
02:45 the highest Bitcoin had ever been was
02:46 $112,000 for like a second, literally a
02:50 second, and it had traded below that.
02:52 And then in the in the course of like a
02:54 day, Bitcoin shot through 112,000 up to
02:58 north of 115,000 and then basically
03:01 spent a whole lot of time between 115
03:04 and 123 bouncing around, bouncing
03:06 around, bouncing around. Everybody that
03:08 wanted to buy or sell Bitcoin between
03:11 11 115 and 123 had plenty of time to do
03:14 that. But all the people that were
03:16 willing to sell Bitcoin between 112 and
03:19 115, most of those people just hung on.
03:22 So out of eight billion people in the
03:24 world, there’s some number of people
03:25 that were waiting for Bitcoin to hit a
03:28 certain number before they cash some out
03:30 to go on a nice vacation or they cash
03:33 some out for a down payment on a house
03:34 or they cash some out to pay, you know,
03:38 I don’t know, pay off some medical
03:39 bills, whatever it is that people use
03:42 Bitcoin for. And when the price, let’s
03:45 say a lot of those people were like,
03:47 “Okay, the highest it’s ever been is
03:49 112. if it ever goes north of 112, I’m
03:52 going to sell. Well, they stop paying
03:54 attention or they get home from work and
03:55 it like shot through 112, 113, 114, 115.
03:59 Now it’s at 116, 117. And they’re like,
04:02 “Wait, now I don’t want to sell anymore
04:04 because it’s going up so fast that even
04:06 though I said I was going to sell to get
04:08 a down payment for a house, now I don’t
04:09 want to anymore because it’s going up so
04:11 fast.” Well, what eventually happens is
04:13 the price starts dipping. And when it
04:15 starts dipping, everybody that was
04:17 willing to sell between 112 and 115
04:20 starts freaking out because they think,
04:22 “Uh-oh, it’s dropping. Maybe it’s going
04:24 to drop below 112 and I’m not going to
04:27 be able to cash out to get a down
04:29 payment on a house or buy a new car or
04:31 whatever it is or to go on a nice
04:33 vacation.” So, they start selling trying
04:35 to keep get ahead of that. And so, that
04:37 pulls you into what’s called the air
04:39 pocket. An air pocket emerges when the
04:41 price shoots up or down through a price
04:44 range very quickly with no trading
04:46 activity, which is is is like this. It’s
04:48 like you get on an elevator. And again,
04:51 I like to use floors are like $1,000.
04:53 So, a lot of people get on the elevator
04:55 between the 90th floor, the 100th floor,
04:58 112th floor. Again, add a,000 for the
05:00 price of Bitcoin. So, there’s a lot of
05:02 people that are like, “Hey, this
05:03 elevator keeps going up and down and up
05:05 and down and up and down. If it ever
05:06 goes higher than the 112th floor, I’m
05:08 getting off. I’ll get off at 113, 114,
05:11 115. I don’t care. I’m just getting off
05:12 if it ever goes to a new all-time high.
05:15 So then they start messing with their
05:16 phone and the elevator dings a few times
05:18 and they’re like, “Wait, 117?
05:21 Uh, I think I’m going to stay on a
05:22 little while longer cuz it’s going up.
05:24 It might keep going up.” And if it keeps
05:27 going up, I might even be happier. But
05:29 again, you got to remember these people
05:30 have what what’s called paper hands as
05:32 opposed to diamond hands. Diamond hands
05:35 are hands that can hold an asset through
05:36 thick and thin no matter what. people
05:38 like me. Then there’s people with paper
05:40 hands. Paper hands are people that are
05:42 barely holding on to what they’re
05:43 holding. They’re holding it very loosely
05:46 and and can be very easily shaken out of
05:50 the market. So when the price starts to
05:52 dip due to supply and demand or due to
05:54 the Federal Reserve announcing
05:55 something, those people with paper hands
05:57 freak out. They sell their Bitcoin and
05:59 it forces us to bounce around in this
06:01 112 to 115 range. Now, could we go lower
06:04 than 112? Sure. There could be all a
06:08 myriad of factors uh that affect supply
06:10 and demand that could cause the price to
06:12 go lower than 112, but usually when you
06:15 get lower than an air pocket, there’s a
06:16 lot more trading activity that happened
06:18 down there. So, it tends to push the
06:20 price higher. Now, we could also go
06:21 through another 32% price dip. We have
06:24 had two 32% price dips uh just in the
06:28 last I think two years. On the way up to
06:31 where we are on the way up from below
06:32 $20,000
06:34 to above $120,000.
06:37 We’ve had two 32% price corrections.
06:40 Obviously, it could correct more than
06:41 that. It could correct 40% 50%. Nobody
06:43 knows. Um all that matters is Bitcoin
06:46 goes up in the long term. But when
06:48 you’re when you create an air pocket
06:49 because you slice through that trading
06:52 range with almost nobody transacting, it
06:55 just means a lot of people were willing
06:56 to transact, but now you now they’re
06:58 sitting at higher levels with paper
07:00 hands. And so what tends to happen is
07:04 not with certainty, that price gets
07:06 sucked back into that air pocket to
07:08 spend a little time there to fill in
07:10 that air pocket with people buying and
07:11 selling, buying and selling, buying and
07:12 selling until there’s been a fair amount
07:14 of buying and selling in that range. and
07:16 then it’s you sort of have support to go
07:17 higher. Now, I know the question you’re
07:19 asking, which is, hey, if there was an
07:21 air pocket between 112 and 115, why did
07:24 anybody buy at a price higher than that?
07:26 And the answer is because there’s no
07:28 guarantee you’re going to go back and
07:29 fill in that air pocket. And you’re an
07:32 idiot if you don’t buy Bitcoin because
07:34 there’s an air pocket and you’re willing
07:36 to miss out on the entire upside between
07:39 here and a million dollars hoping for an
07:42 air pocket. So, let me let me run some
07:43 numbers by you what I mean. Okay, in
07:46 percentage terms, between 115 and 112 is
07:50 less than 3%. Between 1816, 118 and 112
07:55 is only like five, let’s call it 5%.
07:57 It’s a little between five and 6%. So,
08:00 let’s imagine Bitcoin in the future is
08:02 above 100, you know, a million dollars
08:04 per coin sometime five or 10 years from
08:06 now. And you’re sitting down with
08:08 somebody and saying, I remember when
08:10 Bitcoin was barely above 100,000. And
08:12 they’re like, “Oo, you were into Bitcoin
08:14 way back then. Did you buy a ton?”
08:16 You’re like, and here’s where the story
08:18 starts. As soon as there’s a story, it’s
08:19 a bad story. The story was, “Well, I
08:22 should have, but it was 117
08:26 and I thought it was going to go down to
08:28 112, so I was buy planning to buy at
08:30 113.” And then it never went below 114.
08:35 And then I never bought the Bitcoin, and
08:37 now I missed out on a,000% returns,
08:39 10,000% returns. So, okay. So, let’s run
08:42 the math. A logical person would say,
08:44 “Wait, the upside was between a,000% and
08:48 10,000%.”
08:50 And you didn’t want to you were not
08:53 willing to take 100% to 100 to 10,000,
08:57 sorry, you were not willing to take
08:59 a,000% to 10,000% return on your money
09:02 because you wanted 5% more than that.
09:05 So, you got imagine this on scales. On
09:08 one side of the scale, you have the
09:10 possibility of getting Bitcoin 5%
09:12 cheaper. On the other side of the scale,
09:14 you have between a,000 and a 10,000%
09:17 return. Now, you got to be an idiot to
09:20 say, I’m going to take the 5%. I want
09:23 that 5%. I’m willing to risk the entire
09:26 upside of Bitcoin to get an extra 5%.
09:29 Now, you might be thinking, hey, it’s
09:31 not that bad because if it just keeps
09:32 going up, I’ll just buy. So you’re
09:34 saying, “Okay, so instead of 117 or 118,
09:39 you’re going to wait for the air pocket
09:40 and then if the air pocket never comes,
09:42 you’ll just buy it like $130,000.”
09:45 So you’re basically planning to either
09:47 get a 5% discount or chase the price up
09:50 to infinity. Well, what happens when the
09:52 price runs away from you, which happens
09:54 all the time, right? What about all the
09:56 people who are like, “If it dips, it’s
09:58 at 108. If it dips to 105, I’ll buy
10:01 some.” and then a matter of a few days
10:03 it shoots to 123. What are they going to
10:05 do? Buy it 123? No, they’re going to
10:07 freak out and not buy at all because it
10:09 feels too expensive. That’s what humans
10:11 do. Um it’s like my friend who sold a
10:14 hundred Bitcoin which is now worth more
10:16 than $10 million. What is thatund what
10:19 is I guess it’s $10 million. 100 Bitcoin
10:22 worth more than $10 million. And he sold
10:24 them at 10,000 a coin planning to buy
10:26 them back cheaper. But by the time he
10:28 checked the price the price had tripled.
10:30 So, it was $30,000 to buy what is now
10:32 $10 million of Bitcoin. And he just
10:34 couldn’t bring himself to b to pay
10:36 $30,000 for something he had just sold
10:37 for $10,000. So, that’s the way it
10:39 works. If you don’t go ahead and buy it,
10:42 then when you don’t get the air pocket
10:43 and the price runs away from you, people
10:45 freak out and they’re like, “If I was
10:47 going to buy it, I should have bought it
10:48 in the air pocket, but because the air
10:49 pocket never came, I didn’t. And I guess
10:52 that one was just the one that got
10:53 away.” And then they watch 10,000%
10:56 return. So my friend, I asked him, I was
10:58 like, “Okay, so you you sold it at $100
11:02 a bitcoin. You did not want to reby it
11:04 at $300 a bitcoin. Did you buy any
11:07 Bitcoin after that?” And he was like,
11:08 “No, because every price after that was
11:11 more expensive.” So So he’s watched
11:14 Bitcoin go from $300
11:17 to $113,000,
11:21 never buying any more Bitcoin because he
11:22 feels like he missed out. He feels like
11:24 if he was going to buy, he should have
11:26 held on to the Bitcoin at $100. And then
11:28 if $300 a coin was too expensive, so is
11:31 500, so is a,000. And you don’t don’t
11:33 buy it. So that there will be a ton of
11:35 people waiting for lower prices that
11:39 don’t buy the lower prices when they
11:40 come. Cuz if the lower prices come now,
11:42 they don’t want to buy them cuz they’re
11:44 freaking out. They’re like, I’ll buy in
11:45 the air pocket. But then when the air
11:46 pocket comes, they’re like, but the
11:48 price is dropping. Well, of course. How
11:50 do you think you go from 117 or 118 down
11:52 to 113? The price has got to drop. But
11:55 human psychology is as soon as the price
11:57 starts to drop, they freak out and they
11:58 don’t want to buy anymore. So if you’re
11:60 waiting for an air pocket, a the air
12:02 pocket may never get here. So then
12:04 you’re screwed because the air the air
12:05 pocket never arrives. You never buy the
12:06 Bitcoin. or you wait for the air pocket
12:09 and the air pocket does arrive. But
12:11 because you the way you get to an air
12:13 pocket is with falling prices, you freak
12:15 out and you don’t buy cuz you think,
12:17 uh-oh, if we drop from 118 down to 113,
12:20 something must be wrong with Bitcoin.
12:21 And then you don’t watch at all or
12:23 sorry, then you don’t uh buy at all and
12:25 then you miss out. So, you got two ways
12:26 of missing out or the air pocket doesn’t
12:29 come and you end up buying back in at a
12:31 much higher price. So, you lose three
12:33 ways. So, why do I say just buy Bitcoin?
12:36 because it’s a guaranteed win. Sure, you
12:39 might have gotten a 5% discount if you
12:41 waited, but that’s a fool’s game. It is
12:44 an absolute fool’s errand to constantly
12:47 be waiting for 5% lower prices, hoping
12:50 and being willing to miss up on all the
12:53 upside just to try to get 5% better. So,
12:56 again, if you bought Bitcoin between 115
12:59 and 123, good for you. In the long term,
13:01 it won’t it won’t matter. If you didn’t
13:04 buy Bitcoin up there, great. You can buy
13:06 it now, but if you’re waiting for it to
13:08 go even lower, I’m telling you, you’re
13:10 just going to miss out. People just do
13:11 this all the time. And I experienced
13:13 this myself back when you take a zero
13:16 off all the numbers. So, back in the
13:18 early days of Bitcoin, not early. I was
13:20 not early to Bitcoin. 2017, 2018, when I
13:22 got involved in Bitcoin, that was not
13:24 early. Um, but we’re all early in the
13:26 long term. That’s just nobody feels
13:28 early. I don’t feel early because
13:30 everybody I talked to was buying Bitcoin
13:32 in 2013 and 2014 and everybody they
13:34 talked to was buying Bitcoin in 2011 and
13:37 2012. Like everybody feels like they’re
13:39 late to Bitcoin. Anyway, give me one
13:40 second here.
13:44 So, let’s knock let’s knock uh $1,000
13:47 off the price. So, when I was in or
13:50 let’s knock three zeros is what I meant
13:52 off the price or I guess two zeros.
13:56 Well, let’s do one zero, but it applies
13:57 to 1 2 3 four and five zeros anyway. So,
14:01 I remember when Bitcoin was trading
14:02 between $11,000 and $12,000, which on a
14:06 percentage basis is exactly the same as
14:09 as it trading between 110 and 120,
14:12 right? 11020
14:14 is the same as 1 and 1. So, I remember
14:17 when it was trading between, you know,
14:19 between that and of course there were
14:20 air pockets back then, too. And
14:22 everybody’s talking about, “I’m not
14:23 going to buy Bitcoin at 11,800. I’m
14:26 waiting for 11,300, but no. What about
14:28 11,500, but then I don’t want to be
14:30 greedy, so I’ll buy it at 11,400.” Do
14:33 you think it anyone cares right now
14:36 whether somebody bought Bitcoin at 113
14:39 or at, you know, 11,300 or 11,500 or
14:43 11,700 or 11,800 or 12,300, which is the
14:47 equivalent of the highest it’s ever been
14:48 now. 23 would translate back then to
14:51 11,000 uh or 12,300. Nobody cares.
14:55 Everybody just wishes they had bought as
14:57 much as they possibly could buy because
14:58 that’s the only way to win in Bitcoin.
14:60 Buy as much as you can whenever you can
15:02 and hold on to it for as long as
15:04 conceivably possible. So trying to time
15:07 markets, trying to wait for air pockets,
15:09 it’s a fool’s errand. So if it’s a
15:12 fool’s errand, then why does James Czech
15:14 tell you about things like air pockets?
15:16 The answer is so that you understand
15:17 them when they get here. So, when you
15:19 dip into an air pocket and you trade
15:20 there, instead of feeling like a like
15:22 you’re lost or you’re off the track or
15:24 off the trail, it’s like, “Oh, this
15:26 makes sense.” Now that we’re between 112
15:29 and 115, we might hang out here a little
15:30 while. We might not, but we might. But
15:33 it’s not it’s not like some there’s
15:35 nothing wrong that we’re here. It’s just
15:37 like, hey, there was an air pocket down
15:39 there and the marketplace decided to
15:41 revisit it because air pockets have a
15:43 little bit of a magnetic draw to them.
15:45 Uh now again the gravitational pull is
15:47 up not down in the case of Bitcoin. So
15:50 long-term it’s always being pulled up by
15:53 the laws of supply and demand and
15:54 greater worldwide adoption but in the
15:56 near term you get these air pockets that
15:58 are like this little magnetic attraction
15:59 that’s pulling it down. So here we are
16:01 in the air pocket. We might be here a
16:03 little while. We might not. We might go
16:04 lower. Nobody knows. Just buy as much
16:07 Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as
16:08 long as conceivably possible. And the
16:10 last thing I’ll say is I try to be your
16:13 sherpa, which means make all the stuff
16:14 easy to understand. My sherpa is James
16:17 checkmate. He goes by the the check uh
16:20 checkmate or checkmate e uh m- a t ey
16:25 or ey y or e y whatever checkmate on
16:28 Twitter. He is my sherpa because he does
16:30 all the technical analysis. He’s the
16:31 only technical analyst that makes any
16:33 sense. Most of them are just complete
16:35 garbage. But he he identifies things
16:37 like this and he says, “Look, this is
16:39 human behavior. When when you shoot
16:41 through a price level and basically
16:43 almost nobody trades between 112 and
16:45 115, there are people sitting out there
16:47 with weak hands. You got paperhanded
16:49 Bitcoiners out there that were willing
16:51 to sell. They’re sort of sitting on the
16:53 edge of their seat afraid that they’re
16:55 going to miss the opportunity to get a
16:56 down payment on a house. And if you dip
16:58 back into that range, those people are
16:60 going to freak out. They’re afraid it’s
17:01 going to go below the 112, which was the
17:04 highest it had ever been before. But now
17:06 they don’t want to get less than that.
17:07 And so they’re going to be selling. So
17:09 there’s going to be buying and selling.
17:10 So I don’t know. We could spend five
17:12 minutes more in this range. We could
17:13 spend another couple days. We could
17:15 spend a couple hours. We could spend
17:16 weeks. I don’t know. It doesn’t matter
17:18 in the long term because in the long
17:19 term all of the prices are going to seem
17:21 low in the long term. And the long term
17:23 is all that matters. So hope all that
17:26 helps. We’re in the air pocket. It was
17:28 there was no guarantee we were going to
17:29 get here. It does not make any sense to
17:32 wait for an air pocket because again,
17:33 for all the reasons I said, you’re going
17:35 to end up missing out, screwing yourself
17:37 over. Happens all the time. Uh, but we
17:39 are here. And again, if you want to
17:41 follow things just play byplay, you
17:44 know, bit by bit, every step of the way,
17:46 James Czech is a better guy than I am.
17:48 He’s just a little bit more technical
17:49 than I am, which is why I try to be your
17:51 guide as well. First of all, I’m free.
17:53 He charges $29 a month. So, everything I
17:56 do, I do at my own expense out of my own
17:58 pocket for absolutely free. So, I want
18:00 to get free content out there so that
18:02 nobody has to pay a subscription. Nobody
18:04 has to buy anything uh to get content
18:07 and also because I try to take what
18:09 James Czech does and simplify it to the
18:13 masses even one more step than he does.
18:15 He tries to make it pretty accessible. I
18:16 try to make it accessible even to a
18:19 whole a whole another level than even
18:21 what he does. So, hopefully all this
18:22 helps. Nothing’s wrong with Bitcoin. The
18:24 Bitcoin blockchain is processing
18:26 transactions. I can still, if I had a
18:28 billion dollars, I could still move a
18:30 billion dollars to the other side of the
18:31 world in a minute. And the Bitcoin
18:34 blockchain is doing the same thing the
18:35 champion Bitcoin blockchain always does,
18:38 which is be amazing, be secure, be
18:40 decentralized, be unconfiscatable,
18:43 untouchable by governments. Bitcoin is
18:45 the same amazing thing it’s always been.
18:47 We’re just in an air pocket based on
18:48 supply and demand. In the long term, no
18:51 one will care. Hope all that helps. Buy
18:53 as much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to
18:55 it for as long as conceivably possible.
18:57 Same strategy as always, same formula as
18:59 always. Have a great day, everyone.