00:02 hey everyone a few thoughts on bitcoin
00:04 from the last couple days um first off
00:06 it’s been a wild ride the last 72 hours
00:09 it uh Bitcoin has set multiple all-time
00:12 highs about every other day for a week
00:14 or two now and including in the last 72
00:16 hours there was also a big price swing
00:18 from 72,000 or sorry
00:21 $74,000 up to um or down to like $66,000
00:25 or like an $8,000 price swing in a very
00:27 short period of time some of what’s
00:29 happening there first of that is normal
00:31 with high volatility assets whether
00:33 that’s Tesla stock or something like
00:35 that um but also uh a lot of people
00:37 anytime an asset is rising especially
00:39 quickly there are always some people who
00:41 try to uh use leverage to get extra
00:45 returns which frankly is stupid and
00:46 hopefully nobody watching this would
00:48 even consider using leverage to trade
00:51 anything first of all you should not be
00:52 trading Bitcoin in the first place
00:54 Bitcoin is not an asset that should be
00:56 traded it should be bought and held or
00:58 at most uh spent with the coinbase debit
01:01 card but it should not be traded because
01:03 you’re absolutely going to lose if you
01:04 try to do that but of course there are
01:07 the always people that uh think they can
01:09 outsmart the market and they trade with
01:11 leverage and leverage means trading not
01:13 only with their own funds what but with
01:15 borrowed funds well when you do that um
01:17 you get higher returns if you guess
01:19 right you also get much lower returns if
01:22 you guess wrong so for example if you’re
01:24 trading with 10 times leverage and you
01:26 guess right and you’re you know betting
01:28 that it’s going to go up then if if it
01:30 goes up 10% you make a 100% return but
01:33 if it goes down 10% you lose all of your
01:35 money uh conversely if you are betting
01:38 with 10 times leverage that it’s going
01:40 to go down and it instead of going down
01:43 by 10% and making you know you you know
01:45 10 times your money instead it goes up
01:48 10% well then you lose all of your money
01:50 so one of the things that makes uh High
01:52 volatility assets like Bitcoin go up and
01:55 down more is people trading with
01:57 leverage and that’s just you know part
01:58 of what they do um thankfully you know
02:01 Bitcoin humbles everyone as I’ve always
02:03 said unless you just buy it and hold on
02:05 to it as I’ve always advocated it
02:07 humbles everybody so what always happens
02:09 is when there’s a big run up like the
02:11 run up to
02:12 $74,000 some people think they’re going
02:14 to get too smart and they start trading
02:16 with leverage and they get wiped
02:18 absolutely just wiped out and liquidated
02:20 when Bitcoin takes a you know5 to $8,000
02:23 price dip in uh 24 hours and then
02:26 conversely when it starts going down and
02:28 everybody bets it’s going to keep going
02:29 down they get absolutely wiped out when
02:32 it starts going back up so as I’m
02:33 recording this Bitcoin is about $70,000
02:36 per coin uh again it was about 74 then
02:39 it dropped to about 66 now it’s about 70
02:42 about at the midpoint I would guess it
02:43 just keeps going up who knows uh what
02:46 matters is the medium and long term not
02:48 the shortterm um but anyway all of those
02:50 leverage Traders are getting absolutely
02:51 wiped out every time that happens which
02:53 is good for people like us because it
02:55 means the crazy people that are doing
02:58 wonky trading strategies are getting
03:00 wiped out and not those are not the
03:02 people who should be owning Bitcoin
03:03 anyway the people who should be owning
03:04 Bitcoin are not the people who are
03:06 trying to trade it but the people who
03:08 are holding on to it because it is the
03:10 future monetary system of the world um
03:12 in addition to this video I posted a
03:14 couple links to x uh there was a guy
03:16 explaining why um assets that are going
03:20 up as fast as Bitcoin uh has been going
03:22 up are always volatile uh they are it’s
03:25 the nature of it is you can’t have an
03:28 asset that has a CA gr a compound annual
03:31 growth rate averaging 140% it is
03:34 impossible to have an asset that is
03:35 growing an average of 140% per year
03:39 without extremely high volatility the
03:40 two always go together you never have an
03:43 extremely high growth asset that is also
03:46 not also very very uh High volatility so
03:50 uh Bitcoin is volatile it will continue
03:51 to be volatile as I posted a few minutes
03:54 ago all you have to do is zoom out and
03:56 you can get some perspective that you
03:58 know it’s hilarious that when you look
03:60 at a a 10% price correction in 24 hours
04:04 when you zoom out you realize oh that’s
04:05 like a tiny little blip on the radar as
04:08 compared to the massive uh price
04:10 appreciation over the last uh you know
04:12 12 to 18 months so anyway my prediction
04:15 certainly here is that things keep going
04:16 up I think at least for the next
04:19 probably 18 months at any given time
04:21 there will be an an a 80 to 90%
04:24 probability that things are just keep
04:26 going up and always a 10 to 20%
04:29 probability that things take a you know
04:31 some significant interm price dip so uh
04:34 that continues to be the case and for
04:36 those that have been in Bitcoin a long
04:38 time something like a 10% price
04:40 correction which obviously is $7,000 on
04:43 $70,000 um that looks like small
04:45 potatoes to those of us who have been
04:47 through a couple bare markets where the
04:49 price Corrections were much much larger
04:51 than that and even historically even in
04:53 Bull markets which mean up up markets uh
04:56 there’s even been price Corrections
04:58 historically as big as 20 and 30%
05:00 so if 10% over the last 72 hours makes
05:03 your stomach churn just realize you know
05:05 that is not only is that normal but
05:08 historically the price Corrections have
05:09 been significantly larger than that on
05:11 the way up because it’s uh bitcoin’s uh
05:15 volatility has been much higher in the
05:17 past than it is now but it’s still a
05:18 high volatility high growth asset so few
05:21 updates on that I still get questions
05:22 from people all the time of is now still
05:24 a good time to buy Bitcoin I still
05:26 believe a couple things one that the
05:28 probability that the you know there’s
05:30 more upside in the near term let’s say
05:32 even in the next days or weeks is always
05:35 you know probably 80 to 90% the
05:37 probability that you’re going to
05:38 magically get a lower price by waiting
05:40 is always probably 10 or 20% and the
05:44 problem of course with waiting for a
05:45 price dip is you don’t know what a price
05:47 dip is for for example in the last 72
05:50 hours I’m sure at 74,000 a coin people
05:53 were thinking I’ll rate for a price dip
05:55 then it drips to 73 and they’re like oh
05:57 it’s going down I wonder if it’ll go
05:58 down some more well then it you know
06:00 dips to 72 71 70 and they’re like wow if
06:03 it’s going you know dip this much I’ll
06:05 bet it’s going to dip a ton more and
06:07 then it dips more and they’re like oh no
06:08 maybe something’s wrong with Bitcoin and
06:10 so they ended up not buying and then or
06:12 they end up buying and you know as soon
06:14 as it gets to a full 10% or full 15%
06:16 price correction then I’m going to buy
06:18 and inevitably they never buy so um in
06:21 the future neither you nor anyone else
06:24 will care what you almost did and the
06:27 Bitcoin you almost bought and how close
06:29 you almost got to buying Bitcoin at
06:32 today’s prices all that will matter is
06:34 whether you actually pulled the trigger
06:36 or did not pull the trigger and if you
06:38 didn’t pull the trigger well then you
06:39 don’t benefit um you know you’re not
06:42 along for the ride so anyway I continue
06:44 to tell everybody who asks yes I think
06:46 now is a fantastic time to buy Bitcoin I
06:48 don’t see anything that will change that
06:51 and at any given time anytime somebody
06:52 says well should I wait a day or should
06:54 I watch it for a day or two or should I
06:57 you know maybe we waake wait a week or
06:58 two and see what happens I’m like you
07:00 can but there’s an 80 to 90% chance
07:03 you’re going to miss out on significant
07:05 upside and there’s a 10 to 20% chance
07:08 you might buy it cheaper and you’re
07:10 probably not going to buy it cheaper
07:11 because if it does get cheaper you’re
07:13 probably going to freak out and think
07:14 maybe something’s wrong and you’re going
07:16 to not buy it when it’s cheaper anyway
07:18 because you’re going to be sitting there
07:19 waiting for it to get cheaper than cheap
07:21 so everybody who thinks they’re going to
07:22 buy Bitcoin when it’s cheaper inevitably
07:24 when it does get cheaper they think they
07:26 need to wait till it’s even cheaper and
07:28 then when it starts going back up then
07:30 they feel like they missed the cheapest
07:32 of the cheap and then they don’t want to
07:33 buy it because they want to wait for
07:34 another price dip and it just they just
07:36 never buy these people just never buy um
07:39 so anyway that’s a few highlights um
07:41 with regard to bitcoin there was one
07:43 other thing I was going to cover that I
07:46 am not immediately remembering um but if
07:48 I do remember it I’ll go live again but
07:51 that is uh a few thoughts from tonight
07:53 on bitcoin uh price Corrections
07:56 highlights and um and a few other things
07:59 so happy answer any questions anyone has
08:01 happy to send anyone bit uh free Bitcoin
08:03 if they’re in the mood to uh to start on
08:05 the Bitcoin journey and happy to answer
08:07 any questions in the comments or
08:09 anything else uh anyone has so I’m
08:11 always here to serve extremely bullish
08:13 on bitcoin I think it’s the future
08:15 monetary system of the world I really
08:17 don’t think I really don’t see anything
08:18 that would change that and um anyway and
08:21 I think it’s just uh it’s a whole lot of
08:23 up from here even though there will be
08:25 price Corrections along the way so just
08:27 halfway I here to serve if there’s
08:29 anything I can do thanks
