Should you buy Bitcoin NOW? Or wait for the price to START RISING first?

Should you buy Bitcoin now or wait for
the price to start rising to validate
that it’s a good investment?
Unfortunately, here we are again. Now,
you all know the answer to this
question. You should buy Bitcoin now.
But let’s walk through the psychology of
why so few people do that. So, if I
could change one thing about investing,
I’m not sure off the top of my head what
that what that would be, but a really
good candidate would be for people to
stop using prices as validation for the
uh how valuable an investment is. People
do this all the time. In fact, it’s
probably one of the number one fallacies
that keeps people from making money in
investing. Uh because when you use the
price as validation for a good
investment, you always chase whatever is
going up, which means you tend to chase
whatever is already expensive at the
expense of whatever is cheap and is
going to go up in the future. So for
example, uh you can buy on the stock
market something called exchangeraded
funds, ETFs. Exchange traded funds can
be a group of other stocks and often are
that represent a bunch of different
different things but a common one is to
have a certain theme. So an ETF will be
launched for AI or an ETF will be
launched for you know medical technology
software companies or things like that
those ETFs typically underperform from
the point they are launched. Now why is
that? Well, because an ETF is launched
when the prices in a certain category
are rising, which means there’s demand
from the marketplace to have an ETF that
makes it easy to invest in a bunch of
companies at one time. The problem is
what is driving the creation of that ETF
is that the prices have already risen,
meaning the return from those ETFs tends
to be lower than other opportunities in
the marketplace. Because by the time a
company gets around to creating an ETF
for a specific sector, that tells you
that sector has already had significant
price performance. Otherwise, they would
not be creating an ETF. Nobody wants to
make an ETF for a sleepy aspect of the
market that people are not sure about or
don’t believe in. So again, this happens
all the time. It’s happening right now
in silver. Tons of people are buying
silver right now who have no idea why
they’re buying silver. They don’t have
an investment thesis for silver. All
they know is that silver is way up. The
problem is that means they’re buying
silver at 70 or $80 per ounce and then
when it drops they’re probably going to
panic sell it at 50 60 you know 40 $30
an ounce or something like that and
they’re going to lose money or even if
Bitcoin does sorry uh silver does keep
going up a lot of the upside of silver
has already happened. Now, some people
will make a lot of money because they
recognize that silver might do that
before it happened. But again, the time
you want to invest in an asset is before
there’s a huge price rise. Now, I know
exactly what it feels like to own a
bunch of an asset that is the number one
asset performing asset of the year. So,
in 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin was the best
performing major asset two years in a
row, 2023 and 2024. That did not repeat
in 2025, but it will in the future.
hopefully this year, probably this year.
But I know what it’s like to see news
headlines that say Bitcoin’s the best
performing asset and think, “Wow, I
bought a lot of that before that
happened.” Now, how did I buy a bunch of
that before that happened? The answer
was because I was investing based on
Bitcoin’s fundamental properties as
money, not on its price. I was buying
Bitcoin, you know, I bought Bitcoin at
every price from 6,400 all the way up to
124,000. I’ve bought Bitcoin at every
price, but I bought a lot of it uh under
$20,000. Certainly even more under
$30,000. I was buying back in 2022 as
the price dipped below 40,000 before
below 30,000 below 20,000. I was buying
more and more and more Bitcoin all the
way down. Now, why was I doing that?
Because I was not using price as
validation for the asset quality. I was
using the attributes of the asset to set
my expectations of future returns. Now,
if you look at the price, everyone would
say, “You’re an idiot. Why are you
buying in 2022 Bitcoin, which is just
crashing, crashing, crashing?” And the
answer is because the reasons it’s
crashing, are not good reasons. The
reasons Bitcoin was crashing in 2022
were all reasons that had nothing to do
with Bitcoin. The Terral Luna ecosystem
blew up. FTX blew up. All this crypto
garbage blew up. That honestly and truly
had nothing to do with Bitcoin. And I
knew it had nothing to do with Bitcoin.
But most people couldn’t tell the
difference. They just knew that the
whole crypto world was on fire. And I
knew that yeah, a bunch of the crypto
stupid stuff was on fire. But Bitcoin
was not on fire. I mean, Bitcoin was
doing fantastically well uh as far as
its attributes of monetary properties
and the health of the network and uh
transmitting value and all of that. So,
I had the foresight to buy a bunch of
Bitcoin when it was cheap. And I would
consider Bitcoin cheap right now. Now,
most people are not reaching out to me
right now at $90,000 per Bitcoin. Most
people have lost interest. It’s been
going sideways for a month or two.
They’ve lost interest. They move they’ve
moved on. They’re trying to find
something else new and exciting to
invest in. They assume the Bitcoin party
is over. And that’s just not true.
Bitcoin will come raring back as an
asset class. And the question is, how
much of it are you going to own before
that happens? Because what everybody
does is they think, “Well, I own a
little bit of Bitcoin. I’ll keep an eye
on it.” And then they check it and it’s
120,000 a coin. They’re like, “Oh,
that’s up. I wonder if it’ll set a new
record.” Then it goes to 130. They’re
like, “Wow, it did set a new record, but
not not my not by that much.” The
previous record from a couple months ago
was 126. Then it goes to 150 and they’re
like, “Oh man, this thing’s really
going. I I really ought to own a lot
more than I do.” Then it goes to 170.
Then it goes to 180. Finally, they’re
like, “Okay,
180,000. I am buying Bitcoin right now.
I am not getting left behind by this
train.” Now, are you not getting left
behind by this train? Because you just
got left behind from 90,000 to 180. So,
Bitcoin doubles when it goes from 90,000
to 180. Yet, a bunch of people are going
to buy a bunch of Bitcoin at 180,000
that that they could buy at 90,000 right
now. So if you do that, you give up half
of all of the future gains of Bitcoin.
Because think about this, no matter what
the upside of Bitcoin is, if you let
half of that go by without buying it,
you’ll never get that half of the
returns back. So if the upside from
right now is an easy 10x, that means if
you wait for it to double, you only have
5x left. 5* 2 is 10. So if something
doubles, then you have to cut the
potential future upside in half. I think
Bitcoin easily has 10x upside from here
in the next 5 to 10 years. So if you can
easily make 10 times your money in 5 to
10 years right now in Bitcoin, but you
wait for it to be 180,000, well then
you’re not getting 10 extra money,
you’re getting five extra money because
half of the return has already passed
you by. So this is just happening
constantly with all assets, all
investment assets that are like this
where the people who make the most money
are the people who understand the asset.
They invest when it’s on sale. They hold
through the hard times like right now
and you know in the good times they’re
way up on their investment and they can
support their lifestyle and outrun
inflation by a long shot and live the
good life uh financially speaking. So
now is the time to buy Bitcoin if that’s
what you want to do. But again, I can
tell just from the buzz, the number of
people messaging me on Facebook or
Signal or text message, the number of
people, you know, asking questions about
how to set up a Fidelity brokerage, uh,
you know, a Fidelity crypto IRA. Those
questions and interest and inquiries to
me are way down right now. The interest
level is very low. The interest level
should be very high because an entire
year of sideways chop, which was 2025,
is now behind us. all the pain of a year
of sideways trop is already behind us
and the you know we’re halfway through
almost the first month of 2026 uh which
has most mostly been just a sideways
grind. Um, so it’s a great time to buy
Bitcoin, but again, almost everybody
will make the mistake of letting price
be their validation, which means they’re
not comfortable buying Bitcoin until the
price goes up, which means they end up
buying Bitcoin a lot more expensively
than they could. And instead of being
thrilled at 180,000 that they’ve doubled
their money, they instead are sort of
licking their wounds. They’re buying at
180,000 and then Bitcoin goes sideways
for a year and they’re like, “Well, I
finally did the right thing. I bought at
180,000 and then 2028 or something like
that or I don’t know 2027 whatever it is
grind sideways for a year and they’re
like Joel I did the right thing I bought
it. I’m like yeah but why’d you wait for
180,000? I mean you could buy as much as
you want right now at 90,000 and then
you’re doubled your money at 180,000 and
so what if it goes sideways for an
entire year or for six months or three
months at 180,000? You don’t even care
because you’ve doubled your money. So
right now when Bitcoin’s going sideways
and on average I’m up 3x on my total
Bitcoin investment, uh my average cost
price or uh cost basis is somewhere in
let’s call it the $35,000ish
price. So I’m up in the ballpark of
triple my investment. It’s a little
lower than that now, but you know it’s
averaged over the last let’s call it six
months, maybe triple plus my investment.
Okay, that’s fine. If it wants to grind
sideways when I’m up triple on my
investment, that’s fine. If it’s got to
grind sideways while I’m up triple,
that’s fine. I’ll be spending Bitcoin
while it’s triple what I paid for it.
And again, it’s a lot easier to ride
that out if you bought it when it was
cheaper than if you bought up at 116 or
122 or 110 and then you got to grind
sideways at 95 or 90,000. It’s just a
lot more painful when you’re down for
for that sideways grind. So, my advice
is the same as always. Buy as much
Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as
long as conceivably possible. Don’t use
the price as validation. Use market
adoption as validation, which is what’s
actually happening in the Bitcoin
ecosystem. Who’s announcing Bitcoin
purchases? Who’s adopting Bitcoin as
collateral? Which banks are embracing
Bitcoin? What is Congress doing with
regard to clarity for digital assets?
All of the things that determine whether
Bitcoin will indeed be the future money
of the world. Those are the things to
keep an eye on because those things will
eventually drive the demand that drives
the price. And if you buy Bitcoin at
90,000 and all of those things are
pointed in the right direction, then
when Bitcoin’s 180,000, you’re happy and
you’re not stuck buying it at 140, 160,
and 175 on the way up because once
again, you’re using your price as
validation. Now, most people are going
to use the price as validation. I know
they will anyway, no matter what I say.
I know as soon as the price takes off
and Bitcoin starts outrunning everything
else, my phone’s going to light up. All
these people are going to be asking,
“How do I set up a Fidelity crypto IRA?
How do I set up a you know, a Fidelity
crypto Roth IRA? How do I convert my old
401k into Bitcoin?” You know,
everybody’s going to be asking me those
questions as soon as the price uh, you
know, takes off. Everybody’s going to be
asking me, “Hey, you gave me $100 of
free Bitcoin. I never redeemed it. Can
you send me a new link?” Yes, I’ll send
you a new link, but the $100 would have
been$120 by the time I send you a new
link. But guess what? I’m not sending
you a new link for $120. I’m sending you
a new link for just a hundred.
[laughter] So, if you don’t redeem the
first river link I send you for $100 of
Bitcoin, I’m not going to increase the
$100 just because you missed out on 20
or 30% upside before you got serious
about it. That’s your job. Uh so, if I
sent you free Bitcoin, please redeem it.
Now’s a great time to buy Bitcoin. Buy
as much as you can. Hold on to it for as
long as conceivably possible. It’s the
same recommendation I always give and
it’s the same recommendation that has
never been wrong in the last 17 solid
years. Have a good one.