Who is SELLING?!? When will they STOP?!?

Who is selling? Why are they selling?
And when will they stop? With the
Bitcoin at $89,000 per coin, you’re
probably thinking the price down here
this low means someone’s selling. Which
of course is true. Anytime the price is
any price, especially when you have
between 50 billion and 100 billion
dollars of trading volume on any given
day, there’s just as many sellers as
buyers. So, who is sorry, let me say
that again. There are just as many
sellers as buyers. So, who is selling
down here? Well, first of all, let’s
walk through the criteria of who is not
selling down here. The people who are
not selling are people that are high
conviction, long-term focus, and do not
have emergency financial needs. So, high
conviction, long-term focus, no
emergency financial needs. Um, so those
people are the reason. And because there
are more of more of those uh people,
those are the reasons Bitcoin bottoms at
certain prices and never goes lower. And
I’ll walk through in a minute uh who
those people are. Which means the people
who are selling are people who are low
conviction or they are not long-term
focused or they have a big financial
need that does not allow them to be high
conviction long-term focused. So let’s
talk to through each of those.
Okay. So, first of all, if you go back
and look at the history of Bitcoin, you
can tell when the only people left in
Bitcoin are high conviction, long-term
focus with no emergency financial needs.
And the reason you can tell is because
those are the people those are the only
people still holding and buying Bitcoin
at the point at which Bitcoin’s price
bottoms. So, if you look at Bitcoin in
2011, the price ran up to $32 from zero.
Actually, it stayed around 5 cents for a
little while. And after it was at 5
cents for a little while, ran up to $32,
crashed to $2. Between that $2 and $32,
there was a lot of people in there that
had bought because it was going up. They
were not long-term focused. They were
not high conviction. And they didn’t
have emergency financial needs. And so
they were all excited about number go up
up up. Maybe it’ll go to $32. Maybe
it’ll go to infinity. They didn’t know,
but they were buying. Well, as soon as
the price started correcting,
more and more of those people started
fleeing. They freaked out. They sold.
They got off the ship, they climbed off
the train, whatever analogy you want to
use. And so the price started dropping.
And as it dropped, more and more and
more of those people got off the train
until the price was at $2. See, at $2,
so many people when it was at 5, there
was high conviction long-term holders
without emergency financial needs. When
it went to $32, it pulled in a lot of
new people. And a lot of those new
people over the course of that run
became high conviction, long-term
focused without emergency financial
needs. And so when the price dropped,
rather than the price dropping to 5
cents where it was before, the price
dropped down only to $2 because you had
all these high conviction, longtime
preference, no emergency needs people,
uh, which I’m going to call true
believers. Although true believers
doesn’t capture it cuz you can be a true
believer and still have to sell your
Bitcoin due to emergency financial needs
or something like that. So, I’m not sure
how best to characterize those. Uh uh I
don’t know, the few, the proud, the
faithful, the the remnant. [laughter] I
don’t know, whatever we’re going to call
those people. Um you know, ride or die.
Maybe we’ll call those people ride or
die. So, the only people left are ride
or die at $2. Okay. Then the price ran
up to 1,200. from $2. It ran from $2 to
$1,200 and crashed to $92. Now, between
$2 and $1,200, the marketplace picked up
a huge number of, you know, low
conviction, short-term focused people
who are eventually going to have
short-term financial needs, but they
thought, “Hey, even if I need the money
in 3 months, I might as well experience
this incredible upside until I actually
need this, you know, whatever a month or
two or three from now.” So, when the
price hit $1,200, it ran out of those
new people to push the price higher and
the price crashed all the way to $92.
Now, the question is, why did it crash
to $92 and not $2? Because before that
price run, before it went from $2 to
1,200,
I mean, it it only was, you know,
holding at $2. So, why did it stop at
$92? Well, because there was 46 times as
many people that were ride or die. I
People are commenting ride or die. I
like it. Okay, so between uh between $2
and $1,200, it picked up 46 times as
many ride or die people. So the price
couldn’t go back down to $2. It bottomed
at 90 $92, which was 46 times as high.
It picked up 46 times as many of those
people. Then the price went from $92 up
to what did it go from there? I guess it
went from 92 up to $19,000 in 2017.
Crashed to $3,200. And again, why was it
3,200 instead of 92? Because it picked
up a ton of new ride or die people in
that process. And then the price went
from 3,200 up to well, right now it went
up from uh oh no, that 3,200 went up to
69,000 in 2021. 69,000 and then dropped
15,500. But again, 15,500 is way higher
than 3,200 because it picked up a bunch
of ride or die people. And it can’t go
lower than the ride or die because the
ride or die will literally spend their
last penny buying Bitcoin at those cheap
prices, which is what I was doing in
2022 and what a bunch of other people
were doing in 2022, which is why the
price never went below 15,500.
So now we’ve gone up to 1,00 sorry,
126,000, which is just a ridiculously
large number compared to any of those.
One second.
So we go up to 126,000 and now we come
back down. So clearly in retrospect
126,000 represented some ride-or- die
people, but also some people that were
low conviction, short-term focused and
had near-term for emergency financial
needs. Now, how many of those people
were in that cohort? We don’t know. If
the price had crashed to $125,000 by
only $1,000 and then gone up to
$200,000, we would have said, “Wow,
turns out there was relatively few of
those people in.” Well, down here at
$89,000, it’s clear that we had more
than we thought. Um, now, how how low
could the price go? Well, we don’t know
because we don’t know how many of the
current Bitcoin holders at $89,000 are
ride or die, and we don’t know how many
of those are short-term focused, high
financial needs, low conviction. We just
don’t know. Um, the best person in the
world to predict, you know, to predict
what that might be is James Czech. So,
James Czech, my favorite Bitcoin
analyst, goes by Checkmate. Uh, he has
the Czech onchain newsletter. I post
links to his stuff regularly. Uh, he has
a better idea than literally anybody
else on the on the in the world because
he’s tracking the price at which every
Bitcoin last moved on the Bitcoin
blockchain. So, you can tell when people
bought Bitcoin. You don’t know who it
was. if you don’t know any of the
circumstances, but you can tell when
they bought, what price they’re holding
at. I mean, you can tell a lot of
variables about the marketplace. So, he
he’s done run all the math and said,
“Look, you know, if if you look at all
of the statistical probabilities based
on past Bitcoin price cycles and all
that sort of stuff, you know, you could
bottom here, but you could also bottom
somewhere between 75 and $85,000.” Now,
$85,000 is only $4,000 away. So in on
the good side of that, he’s saying look,
the higher end of that is we might only
drop another 4%. You know, that might be
the the deepest this Bitcoin bare market
goes is another 4%. That’s a
possibility. Maybe it goes to 8,000,
which is another roughly 9%. I know the
math is not exactly that. It’s more like
10 or 11%, whatever, but it’s not that
much below where we are. So we could go
down to 75, 80, 85. that pretty much all
the numbers James Czech has ever talked
about do not involve Bitcoin going below
74,000. I mean, that’s just his view is
it’s like, you know, we’re we’re a we
just are going to bottom out somewhere
that’s above that in his opinion. Of
course, nobody knows. Now, if you could
go interview every single person who
holds holds Bitcoin right now, you could
figure out how low the price is going to
go because you would figure out what are
the financial needs of all the Bitcoin
holders. How many of them have tuition
payments coming up in the next 30 days,
60 days, 90 days, how many of them have
credit cards that are going to need to
pay paid off, how many of them have down
payments on houses that are going to
need to be made. If you could figure out
in advance everybody’s financial needs,
then you could figure out how many
people are going to have to dump their
Bitcoin over the next day, week, month,
whatever. Um, and you could figure out
what percent of all the Bitcoin holders
were ride or die because the ride or
dyers are not giving up their Bitcoin no
matter what, they’ll find a way. Um, so
or if they are ride or die, but they
still, you know, have an emergency and a
kid breaks a leg and they don’t have
insurance or something like that, you
know, they’re stuck selling Bitcoin
regardless. They just don’t have a
choice. Um, okay. So, so the ride or die
Bitcoiners are the people who are not
selling. They’re not selling because
they are high conviction, long time
frame, and they do not have any
near-term emergency financial needs. And
so, you know, they’ll be fine. All
right. So, who are the short-term
holders that are selling right now? The
short-term holders are the people that
are the opposite of that. They are, you
know, low conviction, short-term
focused, and they have emergency
financial needs. Now, let’s let’s go in
reverse order. Emergency financial
needs. Look, this hits everybody all I
mean, all the time. You know, a medical
bill, the car breaks down. I mean,
people sell Bitcoin because they have to
because the alternative is they don’t
have transportation. They can’t fix
their car. Look, I get it. I mean, I I
totally understand that uh in in in my
situation, for example, here’s a good
example. I’ve got two tuition payments.
One for my wife’s grad school and one
for my kids. Uh they’re in a hybrid
homeschool program and all this sort of
stuff, but it’s still got tuition. Uh
anyway, so those those two payments are
due in the next month or two, but I’ve
got a settlement on some business stuff
that’s going to come in that’s going to
cover that. So, I’m not going to be a
forced Bitcoin holder or forced Bitcoin
seller. But if I didn’t if I did not
have this settlement coming through from
some business stuff from years ago, um
then I would I would have to liquidate
some Bitcoin to pay those two tuition
payments. But I’m not going to have to.
So I’m covered. But I could have been a
force seller. It’s not much. It’s a
microscopic percentage of my total
Bitcoin. But again, you get hit with two
tuition payments. You got to pay them. I
mean, I’m not going to pull my kids out
of school and I’m not My wife’s not
going to quit grad school because
tuition doesn’t get paid, right? So I’m
going to pay those tuition payments.
Thankfully, I will not have to sell
Bitcoin to do it. But if the
circumstances were different and I had
to, that’s totally understandable. So
when people sell Bitcoin, because they
have to, I get it. If you’re trying to
save your house from foreclosure, if
you’re trying to save your business from
bankruptcy, do what you got to do. Take
care of yourself, take care of your
family, take care of your business, take
care of your life. I totally get it.
Totally fine. Okay, so that’s the third
of the three categories is uh this is
people who have emergency needs. And as
the price of Bitcoin hits falls, people
hit, you know, they get emergency needs.
those don’t just magically go away. All
right, next category in reverse order
are uh short-time horizon people, which
this some of this is also normal. Uh
there are businesses that have Bitcoin
on the balance sheet and they know
they’re going to need that cash in the
next 3 to 6 months and as the price
falls, they look at their expenses and
they’re like, look, I can’t handle
another 5%. I can’t handle another 10%.
So they may be high conviction but they
have to sell that Bitcoin because they
can’t afford due to the nature of their
business and everything else. They can’t
afford a price correction of of another
5% or 10%. Um and in that case again I
get it. I get it. You know life happens.
You can’t give up on your business. I
mean maybe you had Bitcoin on your
balance sheet because you thought hey
2025 is going to be a great year and
then it turns out it’s you know the the
price has not done what you wanted. you
can’t afford to be down on your Bitcoin
and you got to sell it. Like that
happens even for high conviction people.
I get it. Now, the first category is
sort of the unforgivable category, which
is low conviction people. These are
people who own Bitcoin, but they never
figured out why they own what they own
and they let they let go of it very
quickly. Um, a good example.
So, I have never been a lowconviction
Bitcoin holder, but I have been a low
conviction holder of other assets. So,
for example, at one time I owned uh
stock from the Exodus Wallet Company IPO
in 2021. Their stock uh went public at
$27 a share. It was not liquid on the
stock market, but uh it went I bought
some at $27 a share. Uh ultimately in
secondary markets it traded as low as
$2. And then ultimately early either
late last year or earlier this year it
finally went up to $30 or $33 a share.
It was a dollar higher than I paid for
it and I was like whatever. And I sold
all of it. It was like $200,000 of of
that or something like that. So I put it
in at $200,000 instead of Bitcoin. I
should have just put more in Bitcoin
back in 2021. Of course, by the time I
pull it out, Bitcoin’s up 50%. It’s up
zero, you know. But I was a low
conviction holder. I was longtime
focused. I mean, I was long-term
focused. I held on to it for more than
four years. Um, and uh, I did not have
any emergency financial needs. So, but
again, I was low conviction and because
ultimately my thesis of why I bought
that changed and I came to the
conclusion that the company was not
going to do the things I thought they
had to do that were the reason I
invested. So, I sold the stock. I was
also a low conviction holder of Tesla
earlier this year when I had 99% of my
uh liquid assets in Bitcoin prior to
April of this year. I had the last 1% in
Tesla. Uh but ultimately I was a low
conviction Tesla holder. I love Tesla. I
own a Tesla. Uh my very best friend of
the world is a huge fan of Tesla. Um, I
mean, just like I got a lot of things
going for Tesla, but I didn’t My
conviction in Tesla was lower than
Bitcoin and ultimately I sold all of
that Tesla stock lower than the price I
paid for it. I sold it at a loss so I
could buy more Bitcoin when Bitcoin do
dropped into the 70,000s. So, in April
of this year, even though Tesla was
down, Bitcoin was more down and I had a
higher conviction in Bitcoin. So, I sold
the the Tesla stock at a loss. So, I
could buy Bitcoin at what I perceived to
be a deep discount, which was about
78,000 a coin. So, I I converted that
Tesla stock to Bitcoin at about a
Bitcoin price of about 78,000 a coin.
But again, I took a loss on the Tesla
stock. I’m not sure if the loss on the
Tesla stock was larger or smaller than
the price dip in Bitcoin, but my
perception was I wanted to own Bitcoin
rather than Tesla. And so, I was a low
conviction Tesla holder. So if you’re a
huge fan of Tesla and you’re and Tes
back then Tesla stock was dropping and
you asked why it was like well because
someone like Joel Bonggar owns it and he
loves Tesla the car but he’s not as
committed to Tesla the stock and so when
I dumped that to buy Bitcoin which was
one of the reasons in a microscopic way
that Bitcoin dro you know bottomed at
$74,000 because people like me were
dumping Tesla stock to buy more Bitcoin
at 78,000 and again as the price went
down people bought more and more and
more and so it bought them at 74,000
because people like me wouldn’t let it
go any lower. And if it had gone too
much lower, I would have sold the gold
and silver that I just sold last week to
buy Bitcoin at $95,000, which I know
it’s below that. It’s at $89,000 now.
But I Bitcoin eventually could have
gotten cheap enough that I would have
sold that gold and silver back earlier
this year. Um, but at last, you know,
earlier this year, I selling the Tesla
stock was, you know, that’s what I was
in the mood to do. I had not considered
the gold and silver. Uh, and if the
price has gotten cheap enough in
Bitcoin, maybe I would have, but that
was just not what I was thinking of
doing. One second.
So, once again, I was a low conviction
Tesla holder. So, if we knew with
perfect knowledge the mix of low
conviction and high conviction, the mix
of long-term versus short-term and the
mix of who’s going to have an emergency
situation and who doesn’t, then we could
figure out what exactly the bottom of
the Bitcoin price was, and we could
predict that right now. And then you
could say, great, I’ll just buy it at
86,000 or 84,000 or 78,000 or buy it
right now because now might be the
cheapest it ever is. Now, statistically,
it makes sense to buy it right now. I
mean, you can run all the probabilities
all day long and it will never
statistically make more sense for you to
wait. So, um it’s it’s the equivalent of
somebody, you know, you do a coin flip
flip and somebody says, “Look, you give
me a dollar and I’ll give you $2 75% of
the time on coin flips.” Well, of
course, it makes sense to do it at 50%.
At the 50% mark, it makes sense to give
somebody a dollar if they give you more
than $2 if you get a heads. So if they
say, “Look, give me a dollar and every
time you flip a heads you get $3.” Well,
it makes sense to do that all day long
because your odds are two to one in
favor of, you know, you get the payout
is $3 versus losing $1. So it just makes
sense to do that all day long. The break
even point would be a dollar in $2 for a
win. On average, you’re going to win 50%
of the time on a coin toss. So that’s
the way Bitcoin is, uh, where the odds
are always in favor of buying now versus
waiting. So, even back at $95,000 back
over the weekend, I ran all the math and
I said there is no price point lower
than $95,000. That is statistically
probable of happening more so than the
probability of me missing out by not
buying it. Which is the same right now.
If somebody said, “Should I buy at
$89,000 or wait for 88?” I would say,
“Buy at 80 like right now.” If they were
like, “Yeah, but what about 82?” I would
say, “Buy right now.” If they said, “But
what about 76?” I would say look there
is no number where the statistical
probability of missing out is lower than
the statist statistical probability of
buying cheap Bitcoin. You cannot
statistically end up better off by
buying at a discount. Now back to my
coin flip. Let’s say I flip a coin and I
you know somebody flips a coin but they
don’t show it to me and they say, “Hey,
do you want to bet on this coin flipped
for your $3 or the next one?” And I
would say, “Well, I’ll bet on this one.”
But what if I get a tales? I get tales
and I lose. I lose my dollar instead of
getting $3. And somebody was like,
“Yeah, aren’t you aren’t aren’t you sad
you did that?” Like, “Don’t you wish you
had picked tails or waited for a
different coin toss?” And I’d be like,
“No, that’s stupid. I had a 2 to1
advantage.” Like, you know, two to one,
I would have won on won that one. It
makes all the sense in the world. So,
it’s the same with Bitcoin. Although the
odds of of buying of now being
statistically better off as opposed to
waiting are more like 4:1 to 8:1
depending on the price you pick, your
odds of buying now being a better choice
as compared to your odds of waiting for
a cheaper price are about between 4:1
and 8:1 in favor of always buying now.
So depending on which price you pick
between 70 thou $75,000
$70,000 $85,000 depending on which
number you pick your odds are four to
eight times worse of actually ending up
ahead. Now you might get lucky just like
I might get lucky. I might say double or
nothing double or nothing 26 different
times and end up with a ton of money on
coin flips because I get 25 heads in a
row. But that doesn’t mean it was smart
to keep doing that if the odds were
against me and I kept losing on two to1
odds against me but I kept doing double
or nothing like no I mean if the odds
are in favor of you buying now instead
of waiting you buy now instead of
waiting and if somebody gets lucky
because they waited for $89,000 Bitcoin
and you didn’t well pat them on the
head. Good job. But that that
statistically they still made a dumb
decision. So, I have no regrets about
buying $95,000 Bitcoin. Just like I
would have no regrets about flipping a
coin if I got $3 if I win. You know,
heads I get $3, tails I lose. Like, I
got two to one odds. Like, come on. It
makes no sense to wait. So, uh that’s
the way I feel about it. Um you know,
the marketplace, we don’t know how many
low conviction, shorttime focus and uh
people without emer, you know, people
with emergency meds of some type. We
don’t know how many of those people are
still in the market. Maybe it’s zero.
Maybe the price today is the lowest
Bitcoin ever goes in all of history.
James Czech would say, I don’t know,
maybe not. He would say, look, we don’t
know. We just know below $95,000. There
was not a lot of trading activity in the
80,000s. So, if you’re going into the
80,000s, you may end up in the lower
80,000s. Again, statistically, you’re
still worse off, but you got to prepare
for that. Nobody knows. Nobody knows.
Michael Sailor doesn’t know. I just did
a video where I covered all of the
prices Michael Sailor spent tens of
millions of dollars. He spent tens of
millions of dollars at a 112,000 104,000
122,000 a coin. Michael Sailor, the
guy’s got more. He has bought more
Bitcoin than anyone else on the planet
by a long shot and he’s buying it at
every price because he knows nobody
knows if it’s going to 89,000. And so it
never makes sense to wait and he knows
it never makes sense to wait. So,
everybody who’s smart buys it at
whatever price they can buy it at. Um,
now if you’ve got the only caveat I
would say to that is if somebody said,
“Okay, Joel, I I’ve you know, I’ve got
money I need to use on a down payment on
a house in the next 3 to 6 months. I
really can’t afford to be down on that.
So, I’m I’m short-term focused and I’m
pro, you know, that counts as sort of an
emergency need. Um, and and on top of
that, but I’m very high conviction.
Should I buy now?” And I would be like,
well, if you can’t afford to be down at
all, then you really can’t afford to buy
Bitcoin unless it’s deeply deeply
discounted. So, for example, I posted on
Facebook and said, look, how low would
Bitcoin have to be before I borrowed
against my Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin?
Well, that is a very risky proposition
because you can get liquidated. Uh, as
the price falls, you get margin calls.
that if you can’t make a margin call by
putting up more collateral, meaning
sending more Bitcoin to cover your loan,
then you get liquidated and you lose
your loan entirely. So, you know, I’ll
use round numbers. You put up $100,000
in collateral, you borrow $50,000. As
the price of Bitcoin falls, you have to
the 50% ratio starts to shrink. And if
your loan to value, which starts out at
50%. If it edges up to 86%, you get
liquidated and you lose your all all
your collateral. So for me to do
something that risky, I would it would
have to be like 75,000 a coin, 74,000 a
coin, some something ridiculously low.
And if somebody said, “Yeah, but now
you’re waiting.” I’m like, “No, I’m just
not doing stupid stuff.” You know, as
long as you’re not doing stupid stuff,
you should buy right now. If you’re
going to do really risky stuff like
borrowing against your Bitcoin to buy
more Bitcoin, then I would say, well,
the riskier you’re going out on the risk
curve now, you have to have not just
steeply, you know, discounted Bitcoin
like today, you have to have insanely
steeply discounted Bitcoin because your
your margin for error is so tight. So,
if you know you’re going to need that
money for a down payment on a house or
your car is rattling and you know that
you’re going to have to replace it any
day now and you said, “Hey, I know I’m
going to have to replace my car any day
now, but it’s limping along. Would I buy
$89,000 Bitcoin when I know I’m going to
have to liquidated as soon as this car
won’t start?” I would say, “Well, that’s
kind of risky. You know, it’s a whole
lot less risky down in the 70,000s than
it is in the 80,000s. If you know you’re
going to have to liquidate and you have
and you need every penny you currently
have to buy a new car and you literally
cannot afford to be even 1% down, then I
would say, you know, you could still end
up 1% down. If you’re at 75,000 because
it drops to 74,000 and that’s more than
1%. But the probability of that is even
lower than the probability of going from
89 to 80 88 for example. Um, so as long
as you’ve got a, you know, as long as
you’re planning to hold for the long
term, you should always buy now
regardless of the price. If you’re
planning to do something risky like
borrowing against your Bitcoin to buy
more Bitcoin, I would say you really
need to be at like extreme discounts
because that is such a risky proposition
that you’re going to get liquidated and
lose your collateral. Now, if you’re in
some somewhere in between, like right
now at $89,000, if somebody came to me
and said, “Okay, I want to borrow
against my 401k to buy Bitcoin.” Uh, I
would say, “Okay, that’s right on the
line of what I would do at 89,000.”
You’re probably right on the line for
borrowing against a 401k. Now, the
reason is if you borrow against a 401k,
you can’t get liquidated. You know, you
your 401k does not require you to post
more margin based on the price of
Bitcoin. So you borrow against your
401k, you pay yourself back. You have to
make, you know, interest payments on
your loan, but you’re effectively paying
yourself those interest payments to your
401k. And if you can’t make the interest
payments, you get p you get charged a
penalty on the money that you can’t pay
back. So it’s like a 10% penalty or
something like that. So if somebody
said, “I wanted to borrow against my
401k to buy more Bitcoin.” I would say,
“All right, $89,000 is probably right on
the line of where you know the
riskreward.” At 89, I would say don’t
borrow against your Bitcoin to buy more
Bitcoin because bad things happen when
you do that. It’s just risky. Um, if you
got a long-term focus, I would say buy
right now no matter what. Absolutely, no
matter what. 89,000 is cheap Bitcoin. If
you’re doing something in between super
risky, like borrowing against your
Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin, which I do
not recommend you do, period. Um, you’re
doing something between that risky and
just buying Bitcoin in your 401k for the
long haul. Um, then something between
those two, um, I would say is something
like borrowing against your Bitcoin to
buy more Bitcoin. Sorry, no, borrowing
against your 401k to buy more Bitcoin,
which again, I’m not saying I recommend.
I’m just saying if somebody said, Joel,
I’m going to do it anyway. I’m going to
I’m going to not take your advice to not
borrow, you know, to not take out a loan
to buy Bitcoin. I’m going to do it.
Like, I’m going to buy Bitcoin with
borrowed money and it’s going to be
borrowed from my 401k. At what price
should I do that? I would say well
probably 89,000 is probably a break
break even point because again you’re
not going to get liquidated and as long
as you got a long time horizon and as
long as you know you can make the
payments on the interest on those
payments owning $89,000 Bitcoin is a
pretty great price to own you know own
Bitcoin. So that’s how I’m thinking
about things right now. Price could go
lower if you want to know how low
Bitcoin’s price might go. The only way
to get the best intelligence on what the
price might be uh and how low it might
go is James check. I’m sorry, you got to
pay $29 a month for the next month and
sign up for his newsletter. You get two
updates a week uh complete with a
40-minute video plus a an email update
that takes 10 or 15 minutes to read and
he outlines all of that. Now, I will
continue to summarize most of that and
dump it on Facebook, but I’m never going
to capture all of the nuance that he
captures. I mean, there’s no way I can
do a Facebook video that’s 10 minutes
long with a summary of what’s in a
40-minute video plus a 15inute written
update complete with charts and graphs
that like I’m never going to capture the
nuance that he captures uh that you
would get if you signed up for his $29 a
month newsletter. Um, but I’ll give you,
you know, enough to make good actionable
decisions for free. That’s the benefit
of me. It’s free, right? You don’t have
to pay me. Um, so anyway, so I think now
is a great time to buy Bitcoin. you
know, if you want to do something
moderately risky like borrow against a
401k to buy Bitcoin, I don’t recommend
that. But at least at these prices, it
starts to make, you know, sense to do
that if you’re going to do it anyway. If
you’re doing anything riskier than that,
like borrowing against a stock portfolio
or borrowing against Bitcoin to buy more
Bitcoin, I would say, uh, I would not do
that. I would not do that at $89,000.
I’m sorry. Borrowing against Bitcoin to
buy more Bitcoin is how a bunch of
people have ended up upside down on
their Bitcoin. I mean, it’s just, you
know, a lot of people have lost a lot of
Bitcoin by borrowing against Bitcoin to
buy more Bitcoin. Again, not saying I’d
never do it. I’m just saying I would not
do it at $89,000. You’d have to give me
Bitcoin that was so ridiculously
discounted that I could not even
conceive in my mind of the price going
down to the liquidation level. And I
don’t know what that is, but you know,
at $75,000 Bitcoin, I would at least go
on Leen Ledn, which does Bitcoin loans.
Strike S R Ike K. Uh they do Bitcoin
loans, although I don’t think they’re
available for individuals in
Mississippi. Uh just for businesses. But
yeah, you get down to $75,000 Bitcoin,
I’m at least. and Morpho, you can borrow
against your Bitcoin even though the
terms and conditions tell you you should
not and cannot use your Bitcoin that you
borrow against uh the money you borrow
on. Oh, someone just asked, “Did I lose
my $2?” No, my liquidation price on the
$2 Morpho loan where I put up $2 of
collateral and bought one and got $1 of
extra Bitcoin. $2 of Bitcoin collateral
to buy $1 of additional Bitcoin. Uh my
liquidation price is 66,000. So even
though that loan was taken off taken out
at I don’t know what it is. I can figure
out the math. 106,000 110,000 116,000 a
coin. I don’t know. Um whatever whatever
the the price was substantially higher
when I took out that loan on Morpho or
maybe it was in the 90,000s but
regardless it was significantly higher
than it is now. Um, but the liquidation
price price on that Morpho loan uh on
Coinbase, which you can borrow up to
$100,000 against your Bitcoin to buy,
even though they say you cannot use this
to buy more Bitcoin, uh, when I actually
used it to buy more Bitcoin, it let me.
So anyway, [laughter]
um, you know, I guess you can use it to
buy more Bitcoin because it didn’t block
me when I tried, but the terms and
conditions say you can’t. Um, but
anyway, uh, the liquidation price is
66,000. Now, I don’t think we’re ever
going to hit 66,000, but I’m not going
to bet a huge amount of Bitcoin that
we’re not going to hit it because the
other thing with uh liquidations is the
price only has to touch it for a split
second. So, what if like on this Morpho
loan, which again, I would never have
borrowed substantial Bitcoin at the
price I did because it was higher. I
mean, I’m telling you the low, you know,
I’d have to get like 75,000 before I did
something like that, uh, borrowed
against Bitcoin to buy Bitcoin. Um, but
anyway, let’s assume I did. And let’s
assume or let’s assume the liquidation
price is 66. I don’t think we’re going
to hit 66 period. I I would be shocked
if we hit 66,000. But in order for that
Morpho loan to get liquidated, it only
has to hit 66 66,000 for a fraction of a
second. Literally, the price can pound
down there for the for a hammer punch
and I get liquidated and then price
immediately goes back to 75,000. One
second later, I’m still liquidated.
Like, I still lose my $2 of collateral.
Now, I still own my $1 of Bitcoin that I
bought at 106,000 or whatever the price
was when I took out the loan. Um, but
yeah, suddenly I’m sitting with $1 of
Bitcoin instead of $2 of Bitcoin. I just
lost half my Bitcoin. Um, but again, I
only risked $1 or technically, yeah, I
guess I risked $1 because I put up $2 of
collateral and worst case scenario, I
just keep the $1 I got. But I could I
could lose $1 that way at 66,000. But
again, it’s risky because if it touches
that price point, even for a split
second, boom, it’s gone. And then
suddenly you’re like, “But wait, it was
$75,000 a second ago and now it’s
$75,000 again. How did I get liquidated
at 66?” And the answer is because it
touched 66 for a fraction of a second.
And a fraction of a second is long
enough to get liquidated. I mean, if it
as the price changes in a split second,
the Morpho protocol is going to
liquidate your position. Keep your $2 of
Bitcoin collateral. Boom. you’re done. I
mean that is how that works. Uh so
anyway uh but anyway why are people
selling? Going back to the summary,
people are selling right now because
they are some combination of low
conviction, low uh long, you know,
short-term focused and they have
emergency needs to save businesses, save
houses, foreclosures, stay out of
bankruptcy, whatever it is. Those people
are selling and it’s pushing the price
down. And if we knew how many were left,
we could tell you how how low the price
goes. We don’t know how many are left.
We don’t know how low the price could
go. Maybe it’s as low as it’s ever going
to go. We don’t know. The best person to
know how low it could ever go is James
Czech uh with the check onchain
newsletter for $29 a month. You can sign
up for one month. Then as soon as it’s
clear that the price has bottomed and
we’re on the upswing again, you know,
you can unsubscribe. But, you know,
within a month or two of that, you’re
going to want his newsletter for the
opposite reason, which is, hey, we’re up
at 150,000. Is this a peak? [laughter]
you know, at that point, I think we’re
off to the hundreds of, you know,
200,000. I don’t know. But if you want
to know, are we at a top or the top?
Well, the James Check is also the best
way to figure that out. So, hopefully
this has all been helpful. Um, whatever
happens, I hope it’s quick. I mean, if
we’re going down to 85,000, 80,000, I
just want it to be over. Hopefully,
boom, we go down there, we’re done, we
come back. Nobody wants to grind around
at any price. Grinding around is
exhausting. Um, so maybe we are at the
bottom. Maybe this video, maybe the
literal video I’m recording right now,
maybe this is literally the bottom price
that Bitcoin will ever hit. Maybe as I’m
talking, you know, Switzerland is
announcing that they’re buying huge
amounts of Bitcoin and the price is
about to go through the roof and 89,000
will be the lowest it ever goes. Um,
anyway, who knows? All right, last
question here. Uh, Lindy asks, um,
anyway, I I [clears throat] won’t it’s
more Bitcoin lending. Uh, I need to go
read it closely and I don’t want to do
that live on a video, so I’ll answer
that separately. Um, anyway, that is
your update. Even though James Czech
gives much better updates twice a week,
you get more frequent updates, just not
nearly as good from me for free. So,
that’s your update for today. Hope it
helps. I’m here to serve. Thanks
everyone.