I Bought $250,000 of Bitcoin and the Price Dropped!

The price of Bitcoin dropped right after
I spent more than $250,000
buying more Bitcoin. Literally in the
last 48 hours, the price dropped right
after I finished those buys. Would it
have been possible for me to time the
market better and catch a lower price?
The answer is no. That is not
statistically possible. And I want to
explain why. And I want to walk you
through the math. First of all, what
happened? Well, I sold all the gold and
silver that I had back from 2017. I got
the proceeds of that and over the last
48 hours I bought more than $250,000 of
additional Bitcoin. Now, I didn’t know I
had that much gold and silver. I didn’t
remember how much I had bought in 2017.
It was more than I thought I had. Plus,
even though it massively underperformed
Bitcoin, it did outperform some other
assets. And so, I ended up with more
gold and silver than I thought I had.
Otherwise, I would have changed it out
for Bitcoin a lot sooner. Uh, but
anyway, so I bought more than a quarter
million dollars of Bitcoin in the last
48 hours. The price promptly dropped by
about $2,000 into the $93,750
as I started recording this video.
$93,750.
Whereas the price I actually bought it
for was about $95,750
or so in that ballpark between 95 and
96. Now we’re in the 93s. Could I have
timed it better? No. And I want to walk
you through the math. First of all,
let’s assume I knew the price was going
to bottom sometime in the fourth
quarter, which first of all, we don’t
know. That could be could have been last
quarter, could have been any of the last
24 quarters, could have been anytime in
the next 24 quarters. Anyway, let’s just
assume we knew it was going to be this
quarter. What are my chances of buying
it in the right 24-hour period this
quarter? The answer is there’s 91 days
in an average quarter. And so, I have a
1 in 91 chance, about a 1% chance. So, I
have about a 1% chance of buying Bitcoin
on the right day of the quarter. So,
right there, there’s a 99% chance I’m
not going to buy it on the right day,
which means there’s a 99% chance that
the price is going to end up lower at
some point than the price I paid for it,
which I’m totally fine with. That’s the
same with all investments. It’s why
virtually never does anyone buy the
bottom of a dip or sell the top of a
peak because statistically, it’s just
impossible to do. So again, you’ve got a
what a 1% chance of buying in the right
24-h hour period if you knew that it was
going to dip in one quarter, which we
don’t even know that. But let’s assume
you wanted to be even better than that
because some a substantial amount of the
Bitcoin I bought was less than 24 hours
ago, meaning it was within the one day.
So, what if you wanted to say, “I want
to be in the right hour.” Because
obviously buying in this hour, Bitcoin
is a couple thousand dollars cheaper
than buying, I don’t know, 20 hours ago,
about 8:00 p.m. last night instead of
5:00 p.m. whatever, uh, 400 p.m. this
afternoon. So, 20 hours ago, if I want
to be in the right hour in in a quarter,
I have a 1 in 2,000 chance. So, I have a
less than one 20th of 1% chance of
buying in the right hour in a quarter.
If you want to narrow it down to the
right minute, I have a 1 in 131,000
chance of buying in the right minute.
That even just assumes that the dip
happens and I can guess the quarter
right. If I guess the quarter right, I
have a one in 131,000 chance of buying
the perfect bottom in the right minute.
Okay? So the odds you’re just never
going to buy the bottom and you’re never
going to sell the top. It’s
statistically impossible. And because
everybody who’s smart knows that, they
don’t try. They either do what I do,
which is buy as much Bitcoin as you can
whenever you have the money to do it
regardless of the price, or they dollar
cost average, which means they buy the
same amount of Bitcoin every week or
every month or every day. And that way
they’re basically buying the, you know,
the dips, the tops, the bottoms,
whatever. It’s called dollar cost
averaging, DCA.
Now some one the person who has bought
the most Bitcoin of any human in the
entire world is Michael Sailor. One
second.
So Michael Sailor his company Micro
Strategy which is now just called
Strategy. His company Strategy owns more
than 3% of all the Bitcoin that will
ever exist in all of history. More than
3% of all the Bitcoin that led exist in
all of history is owned by one company
and its founder and CEO is is Michael
Sailor and he has been in charge of
every one of those Bitcoin buys. His
most recent Bitcoin buy was Monday of
this week. He bought $49 million of
Bitcoin at 102,000 a coin. He could have
waited and bought it at 93,000 a coin,
but he spent $50 million buying Bitcoin
this week at 102,000. But it gets worse
because two weeks ago he bought $45
million at $114,000 a coin. Three weeks
ago he spent $43 million buying Bitcoin
at 111,000 a coin. It’s even worse. Four
weeks ago he spent $18 million buying
Bitcoin at 112. And about five or six
weeks ago, something like that. five
weeks ago. It looks like uh he spent $27
million buying Bitcoin at 123,000 a
coin, which is pretty close to the top.
126,000 was the top. And this guy’s
buying $27 million of Bitcoin at
$123,561.
Now, why is he doing that? He’s doing
that because he understands these same
probabilities that I do, which is that
he’s never going to time the bottom just
right. He’s never planning to sell. So
he doesn’t have to worry about selling
the tops. But even even if he was trying
to time the bottoms, he could dollar
cost average. He could raise the money
and then put it in 17th every day
throughout the week. He doesn’t do that.
As soon as he has capital, he puts it in
the market as fast as conceivably
possible regardless of the price. And
he’s always done that. He’s been buying
Bitcoin since uh the year 2020. So more
than 5 years now he’s been buying
Bitcoin. And he has accumulated with
that strategy 4 sorry $641,000
Bitcoin uh which is more than 47 billion
dollars of Bitcoin. He has bought more
than 47 billion dollar of Bitcoin.
That’s an insane amount of Bitcoin that
he’s bought. and he’s bought it because
every time he’s able to raise money in
either the equity markets or the debt
markets on Wall Street, he immediately
turns out around and buys Bitcoin with
that money because he understands the
probabilities. So to summarize here, the
probability of timing the market just
right by buying Bitcoin on the right day
in a given quarter is about 1%. If you
want to buy it in the right hour of one
quarter, your odds are less than one in
2,000. If you want to buy Bitcoin at the
right minute in any given quarter of
three months, your chances are 1 in
131,000, you are not going to buy the
perfect bottom. All you can do is look
at Bitcoin and decide statistically that
it makes sense to buy it now. Now, if
you are waiting for a low, I can run for
you the statistical probability of
Bitcoin hitting any low based on
history. So, for example, if you were
waiting for $80,000, let’s just say you
don’t want Bitcoin that’s 26% on sale.
You want it an additional 14% on sale
all the way down to $80,000. Well,
statistically, the odds would have to be
better than 84% chance that you get
there in order for it to make
statistical sense to wait. But the odds
historically once Bitcoin has dropped
26% the odds that it will drop an
additional 14% are only less than 39%
chance. So the odds are more than 2:1
against you by waiting for a lower
price. And that is the same whether
you’re at 93,000 and you’re waiting for
92 or 91 or 90 or 85 or 80. Every
probability of getting a number lower
than today’s price has a worse
probability of it never happening than
the probability would have to be for you
to make statistical sense for you to
wait. Which means it just makes sense to
buy as much Bitcoin as you can as soon
as possible regardless of the price.
That is the statistical superior way of
doing it. It is the way I buy Bitcoin.
It is the way Michael Sailor buys
Bitcoin and it’s the way everybody who’s
trying to accumulate as much Bitcoin as
they possibly can does it. And right now
on my Facebook page, all these people
are posting, “I’m not going to buy
Bitcoin until it hits X price and Y
price and Z price.” Guess what? All of
those people were on Facebook and
Twitter back in 2022. All of them were
telling everybody, “Don’t buy Bitcoin in
2022 unless the price hits
13,800.” That was the number. They had
all run their statistical models. They
had all run their probabilities. They
were all certain that the Bitcoin price
was optimal at 13,800. Well, guess what?
It never hit 13,800. The lowest the
price ever went in 2022 was 15,500.
Well, guess who was buying it at 18,000,
22,000, 16,000? Me. I was buying it at
all of those prices because all of those
prices sounded cheap to me based on the
fact that I think Bitcoin will be worth
more than a million dollars in the long
haul. So, am I going to wait around and
pass up on $16,000 Bitcoin because a
bunch of idiots on X and Facebook are
telling me to wait for 13,800. None of
those people bought any of that Bitcoin.
Certainly not at 13,800. It probably
bounced into the 20, 30, 40,000s before
they finally admitted that they were
wrong and bought it. In fact, most of
them probably never bought it. They’re
probably thinking, “I missed out. I
should have bought it at 16,000 18,000
20,000 but I was waiting for 13,800 and
I didn’t buy it at that price and every
other price seems too expensive and they
probably just never bought any of that
Bitcoin. So they missed out on what 700%
whatever that is some ridiculously high
percent return. So, I’ve been getting
these insane returns on all that Bitcoin
I bought in 2022. Well, all these people
on Twitter and Facebook were all saying,
“Wait for 13,800. Only idiots are buying
Bitcoin at 16,000 because we all know
it’s going to 13,800.” Well, a bunch of
morons missed out on a bunch of Bitcoin
because it never went there. So, I am
smart enough to go run this math and
know that it does not make sense to wait
to buy Bitcoin. Not with my own money
because I bought $250,000 of Bitcoin in
the last 48 hours. And what did the
price do as soon as I bought it? It
dropped by two or three thousand dollars
a coin. Right after I finished buying
it, the price dropped by a few thousand
a coin. I knew it was going to do that
because otherwise the probability was
that I bought it at the perfect time.
And statistically, I know I I’m not
going to buy it at the perfect time. And
if I know statistically the probability
that I bought it at the perfect time is
less than 1%. That means there’s a 99%
chance the price is going to drop after
I buy it. Now, you might be thinking,
well, why don’t you just wait? Why
didn’t you just wait for the price to
buy uh to drop and then buy it? Because
what does a drop even mean? If you wait
for a price drop right now, yeah, it’s
probably going to drop a little more,
but you can wait for that price drop all
the time, just like those people did in
2022. All of those people said if it
drops down here to 15,500, it’s probably
going to go to 13,800. and it never did.
And those idiots never bought the
Bitcoin. So the same is true now. If I
had money to buy Bitcoin right now, I
would at 93,750.
If I had money, which I did yesterday,
to buy it at 95,000, I did because it
just makes sense to buy it when it’s
this discounted. It makes sense to buy
it regardless of what the price is. And
I’m smart enough to know that I’m not
going to take I’m not going to pretend
that with a 1% chance of timing it
better on a better day of the quarter.
I’m gonna wait around to find the
perfect day at the bottom. I don’t know
what the bottom is. You don’t know what
the bottom is. Clearly, Michael Sailor
doesn’t know what the bottom is because
while I’ve been over here buying a
quarter million dollars of Bitcoin, he
literally bought a quarter billion
dollar of Bitcoin. I just bought a
quarter million dollars of Bitcoin.
Well, well, he bought a quarter billion
dollar of Bitcoin and he bought it at
way higher prices than I do. 102, 114,
111, 112, 123. Each of these buys are,
you know, ballpark $50 million of
Bitcoin. Again, the smart people buy as
much Bitcoin as they can whenever they
can, as much as they can, because
statistically it doesn’t make sense to
do anything else. So, here we are in a
26% price dip. Are you going to do the
smart thing and buy as much Bitcoin as
you can, or are you going to wait for a
dip that may never happen, that you
probably won’t buy even if it does
happen? That statistically makes zero
sense at all. That’s where we are. FYI,
I have zero regrets about the Bitcoin I
bought yesterday and the day before. The
only reason I didn’t buy all of it two
days ago was because I hit the buy
limits. Um, if you do a wire transfer,
there’s no buy limits. You can buy as
much Bitcoin as you want if you wire if
you wire transfer money into Coinbase or
River. It’s the buy the buys are
unlimited. Uh but because the money hit
my bank account from the gold and silver
I sold in 2017 after the cut off for
wire transfers on Friday, I couldn’t
wire funds, which means I had to suck
the money out of the bank account from
River and Coinbase uh using the built-in
integration, which is great. They all
they all use Plaid. It works great, but
the problem is there’s limits on how
much you can suck out of any given bank
account. And even though I bought on
four different exchanges, Coinbase,
River, Gemini, and Strike, uh, to get up
to that buy level, I maxed out all of
those on the first day and then I maxed
them out again on the second day before
I could get all the capital deployed.
Um, due to the buy limits of each of
those. Um, so as a result, again, I’m
thrilled with the Bitcoin I bought
yesterday and the day before.
There’s no way I could have predicted it
would have been lower today. Who even
knows? Is it going to be lower or higher
tomorrow? Nobody knows. I’m just
thrilled. I’ve got Bitcoin that I bought
in the 90,000s. And same will be true of
you. And if we could re rewind time to
2018, it was the exact same thing. Take
a zero off all of the numbers. And it
was the exact same thing back in 2018.
You know, if you take a zero off, the
high price was 12,600.
126. Take a zero off is 12,600. The
price I bought at 9,500. Uh 95,000 turns
into 9,500. The price it dipped to is
now 9,300.
And everybody was doing the exact same
thing then that they did now. Oh, you
bought it at 12,600. That’s so
expensive. I would never buy it till
it’s 8,200. And I’m out there buying at
9,500. I’m out there buying at 9 9,300.
I’m out there buying at 12,000. I’m out
there buying at 10,000. I’M BUYING AT
all of these prices because I know that
none of these morons know what the
bottom of the market is. And there’s no
way to predict it. I just wish I could
go back in time and buy the most
expensive Bitcoin in 2018. Literally,
the very most expensive Bitcoin in 2018.
I wish I could buy all of the Bitcoin I
bought back then at the most expensive
price of 2018 or of 2019. I can’t
because I was doing what too much many
other people were doing, which was I was
trying to gauge what a cheap price was,
what an expensive price was. You know,
was I going to regret it if I bought at
one price and then it dropped to another
price? Don’t play those games. Just buy
as much Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to
it for as long as conceivably possible.
It literally is that simple. And it is
that simple right now.