Bitcoin info you need to know for the next three (3) months

00:01 Welcome to Bitcoin at $125,000 per coin.
00:04 Let’s talk about what you need to know
00:06 for the next three months in the land of
00:08 Bitcoin. All right, first off, some
00:10 historical perspective. Historically,
00:12 back in 2013, 2017, and 2021, there
00:17 would be a peak of Bitcoin in the
00:21 October, November time frame, the year
00:23 following a presidential election. That
00:26 would be of course October of this year
00:29 or November next month of this year. The
00:32 difference was what caused that peak was
00:35 a massive price rise leading up to
00:39 October and November and you would get
00:41 what’s called a blowoff top. A blowoff
00:44 top is when you get this huge
00:45 unsustainable rally uh driven by
00:48 speculative demand and then ultimately
00:51 the speculative demand is not
00:52 sustainable and so you get this
00:55 basically huge spike up and then the
00:57 price comes significantly back down and
00:60 then marches higher from there. Now the
01:02 thing that is different about 2025 is we
01:05 have not had a blowoff top. The price
01:08 has been grinding sideways and then up,
01:10 sideways and then up. sideways and and
01:12 then up. And everybody’s bored to death
01:15 even though Bitcoin’s up 600% in the
01:18 last 3 years. Uh people are just bored
01:20 out of their minds because they’re used
01:22 to a Bitcoin that’s just all over the
01:23 place all the time making people’s, you
01:26 know, dopamine receptors uh respond
01:29 constantly to huge upsides and, you
01:32 know, epic downsides and all that. And
01:35 this cycle, we have not had that. It has
01:36 been sideward, sideways grind and then a
01:39 big jump up. Sideways grind, a big jump
01:42 up. Sideways grind and a big jump up.
01:44 And typically that sideways grind gives
01:48 the market an opportunity to digest the
01:51 big upward swing. So you have not had on
01:54 this cycle, you have not had these huge
01:56 price corrections uh because the market
01:58 instead the demand has been so strong
02:01 that instead of a big price correction,
02:03 you essentially just grind sideways.
02:05 when demand goes soft for a period of
02:07 time, uh rather than a price correction,
02:10 you end up having this uh sideways grind
02:13 that wears people out and scares people
02:15 out. So, uh the only two big dips so far
02:18 this year have been or not this year,
02:20 but in the last two years, there was a
02:22 dip in 2024 of about 33%. And then
02:26 another dip in 2025 earlier this year in
02:29 April of about 25%, sorry, 33%. So two
02:33 corrections of between 30% and 33%. Uh
02:37 one in August of 2024 which was uh
02:41 related to international I forget what
02:43 international incident happened. But
02:45 then the uh in April what’s called the
02:47 tariff tantrum when everybody threw a
02:49 fit and started selling everything
02:50 because they were afraid the tariffs
02:53 were going to basically screw up the
02:54 whole economy. Uh so anyway, other than
02:56 those two 33% price corrections, it’s
02:59 been a pretty modest um you know,
03:02 uninteresting ride up of 600% gains over
03:06 the last 3 years. So what’s going to
03:09 happen over the next 3 months? Well, let
03:11 me paint the scenarios. The a low
03:13 probability scenario
03:15 is we enter a bare market from here. A
03:18 bare market means a significant, you
03:21 know, 30 40 50% draw down in the price.
03:24 I think that’s very unlikely because we
03:27 have spent so much time grinding
03:28 sideways and so much time generally
03:31 between 100,000 and 125,000 that it does
03:34 not feel like the market needs a
03:36 correction because again the market has
03:39 had a lot of time to digest the current
03:41 price ranges. So it feels like that’s a
03:44 low probability outcome. Um of course it
03:47 is likely in the next year or two we
03:49 will get a price correction of at least
03:51 20 or 30%. And you may be thinking,
03:54 well, I’ll just wait and buy it on a
03:56 price correction. The problem is it is,
03:59 you know, likely that the price increase
04:02 that happens before the correction will
04:04 result in a price that if you have a 20%
04:08 correction, for example, will result in
04:10 a price being higher than it is now. So,
04:12 for example, if the price runs up to
04:15 $200,000 and you have a 20% price
04:18 correction, that means the price drops
04:20 to $160,000.
04:22 Well, if you’re waiting at $125,000
04:25 for a price correction and you get a
04:26 price correction down to $160,000, well,
04:29 guess what? You’re screwed because
04:31 you’re you’re paying a lot more for your
04:33 Bitcoin in that price correction than
04:36 you could be paying right now. Plus,
04:38 that assumes you’ll actually buy it in
04:39 that price correction, which you
04:41 probably won’t because you’ll freak out
04:42 because the price will be dropping.
04:44 Also, you don’t know when the price
04:46 correction will happen and you don’t
04:47 know how big it will be, which means the
04:50 likelihood is that you will wait for a
04:53 30% correction, but it’ll only correct
04:56 25%. And then you’ll miss it. The price
04:59 will march higher and you’ll be stuck
05:00 reaccumulating Bitcoin you could have
05:02 had today at 125,000 at 180,000 or
05:05 something like that. This stuff happens
05:06 all the time and it’s been happening for
05:08 17 years now in the life of Bitcoin. So,
05:12 uh, the the advice of course is the same
05:15 that I always give, which is buy as much
05:16 Bitcoin as you can. Hold on to it for as
05:18 long as conceivably possible. Don’t try
05:20 to time the market. Don’t wait for dips
05:21 and all of that. Okay. So, low
05:23 probability scenario, we go through a,
05:25 you know, a bare market, medium
05:27 probability that there’s at least a 20
05:29 or 30% price correction somewhere along
05:31 the way, probably to a price that’s
05:33 higher than the price today. And
05:35 therefore, it does not make sense to
05:36 wait. Now the most likely scenario in my
05:40 opinion which I would give you know
05:42 maybe maybe bare market is you know sub
05:45 10% probability um you know medium-term
05:50 uh you know 20 or 30% price correction I
05:52 would say is I don’t know a 20%
05:54 probability which leaves let’s call it a
05:56 60 plus% probability that what we’re
05:59 going to get is a big parabolic rise
06:02 from here and so why do we get big
06:04 parabolic rises? Well, they’re first of
06:06 all, they’re called parabolic because
06:07 they look like a parabola, meaning they
06:10 just basically the price takes off. Uh,
06:13 typically what happens is when an asset
06:14 goes up long enough, everybody starts
06:17 deciding that the asset will keep going
06:18 up for a long time and you start getting
06:21 demand from unexpected places. So, for
06:24 example, if uh uh Switzerland all of a
06:29 sudden decides that they’re going to buy
06:30 some Bitcoin for their balance sheet,
06:32 that would trigger a series of dominoes
06:34 where a bunch of smaller countries would
06:36 likely start buying Bitcoin. Or if a
06:39 major corporation like Facebook, um you
06:42 know, Mark Zuckerberg’s two goats are
06:44 called Max and Bitcoin, like Bitcoin
06:47 Max. So, um, you know, Mark Zuckerberg
06:51 might decide to put some Bitcoin on the
06:53 Facebook balance sheet. Um, but who
06:56 knows? I don’t know what the catalyst
06:57 is. Um, I think it was JP Morgan this
06:60 week uh, you know, defined or coined the
07:03 term, I guess it was last week, the
07:05 debasement trade. The debasement trade
07:07 is, hey, what are you going to do in a
07:10 world where assets where the fiat
07:12 currencies are being debased by
07:13 governments? And their definition of the
07:16 debasement trade is people buying gold
07:18 and bitcoin. Gold is not very practical
07:20 for individuals to own. Central banks
07:23 have obviously massive vaults and
07:26 security teams and you know they can
07:28 send warships across the ocean uh to get
07:31 you know gold and all that sort of stuff
07:33 but gold is not very practical for the
07:36 individual and Bitcoin has superior
07:37 monetary properties on virtually every
07:40 vector to gold. So as a result of that
07:43 um I believe and many believe Bitcoin
07:46 will ultimately win out in the end and
07:48 surpass gold. But currently gold all the
07:50 value of all the gold gold that humans
07:52 own in the world is more than 10 times
07:54 the value of all the Bitcoin that exists
07:56 in the world or ever will. So Bitcoin
07:58 needs to increase in value by a factor
08:00 of more than 10 just to catch up to the
08:03 current price of gold. And the price of
08:05 both gold and bitcoin is likely to
08:06 continue to go up in the near term
08:08 because central banks are buying gold
08:10 and individuals are buying bitcoin and
08:13 uh companies etc. So I think we’re
08:17 likely to have a parabolic rise in the
08:19 price of bitcoin coming soon. And the
08:21 question is what should you do about
08:22 that? Well one you should buy as much
08:24 bitcoin as you can before that happens
08:27 because once you get a parabolic rise it
08:29 become becomes very tempting to do crazy
08:31 stuff to get more bitcoin. But what ends
08:33 up happening is you end up buying near a
08:35 top and then there’s a price correction
08:37 and then you feel like an idiot. Now,
08:38 the best way to not feel like an idiot
08:41 is to watch my videos because I’ll keep
08:42 you in the loop. But typically, uh, I
08:45 watch James Czech. So, James Czech has a
08:48 newsletter called uh, Check on Chain.
08:50 And the primary goal of his newsletter
08:53 is to educate people on what is
08:55 happening in the world of Bitcoin and
08:56 what is about to happen in the world of
08:58 Bitcoin. And in that newsletter, he
09:01 covers all of the different metrics that
09:03 tell you are we in a major price uh
09:07 parabolic rise of the price of Bitcoin
09:08 and how likely are we to go through a
09:10 major price correction. So I posted
09:13 earlier a couple of the screenshots that
09:15 he uses for that purpose um from his
09:18 website and uh they one is the topping
09:21 cloud where he tracks and numerous
09:24 indicators that historically have
09:26 indicated when the market is getting
09:28 like super overheated and uh currently
09:31 zero of them are flagging. And then he’s
09:34 got the hodddlers dashboard which tracks
09:36 four different metrics and tells you if
09:38 they’re neutral or cool or heated or
09:40 overheated or whatever. And right now
09:43 none of those are flagging. Uh in fact,
09:45 we had an all-time high and literally
09:47 there was like no chatter. This is like
09:49 the quietest all-time high ever. So what
09:52 I recommend is buy as much Bitcoin as
09:53 you can before that parabolic rise. That
09:56 way you can enjoy the parabolic rise
09:58 because a you own a bunch of Bitcoin
09:59 that’s going way up with the rest of
10:01 everybody’s Bitcoin and B you don’t have
10:03 to worry about is the price going to go
10:05 through a 20 or 30 plus% correction
10:08 after the parabolic rise. You don’t have
10:10 to care because you already own your
10:12 Bitcoin. So if it doesn’t go through a
10:14 correction, great. Your Bitcoin is worth
10:16 more. If it does go through a
10:18 correction, your Bitcoin is worth
10:20 slightly less than more, but still way
10:21 more than now. So, it is just way better
10:25 to buy Bitcoin before a huge parabolic
10:28 rise. But I know what’s going to happen.
10:30 It’s going to Bitcoin’s going to start a
10:31 huge parabolic rise. And everybody’s
10:33 going to be asking me, “Okay, Joel, I’m
10:35 finally convinced. You know, Bitcoin’s
10:37 at 150,000, 160,000, 170,000, whatever
10:40 it is, and suddenly everybody is
10:42 convinced that they now are a Bitcoin
10:44 true believer, and it’s time to start
10:46 accumulating Bitcoin. Of course, there’s
10:48 never a bad time to buy Bitcoin. But
10:50 $125,000 is a way better time to buy
10:52 Bitcoin than $175,000,
10:55 but I promise you at $175,000,
10:57 everyone’s going to be coming out of the
10:58 woodwork wanting to buy Bitcoin at that
11:01 level. And again, I’m going to have to
11:03 painfully tell them that all the
11:05 indicators that from James Czech are
11:06 saying, “Hey, it’s getting a little
11:08 steamy in here.” Not, that doesn’t mean
11:10 it’s a bad time to buy Bitcoin, but it
11:12 might mean you got to live through a
11:14 dip. So, your $175,000 Bitcoin’s going
11:17 to dip down to, you know, $140,000
11:20 Bitcoin and you’re going to not like it.
11:22 Uh, and it’s just a lot easier to avoid
11:24 that if you buy the Bitcoin early and
11:26 then you don’t have to worry about
11:28 whether it’s dipping or not because it’s
11:30 dipping to prices that are above the
11:31 price you paid. So, who cares? So, that
11:34 is the world we live in. What you need
11:36 to do for the next 3 to 6 months, I
11:38 would say one, acquire as much Bitcoin
11:40 as you possibly can now versus later.
11:42 Two, just understand that we may go
11:46 through a parabolic rise and that you
11:48 ought to keep a check, you know, keep
11:50 track of my videos which are going to be
11:52 closely tracking James Czech and his
11:54 check on chain newsletter to keep keep
11:56 you in the loop on how overheated or not
11:59 overheated everything is which hopefully
12:01 will keep you from buying the top which
12:03 in the long run you’ll be glad you did
12:05 but in the short run you’ll be annoyed
12:06 because your Bitcoin will be underwater
12:09 and it’s no fun having your Bitcoin
12:10 underwater even if it’s very
12:11 temporarily.
12:12 So keep an eye on that. Hopefully the
12:15 next 3 to 6 months is a wild and
12:17 enjoyable ride of Bitcoin upside. Uh the
12:20 only downside is all the stupid stuff.
12:23 XRP and every stupid coin will also get
12:26 dragged up with Bitcoin. So we’re going
12:28 to have to put up with all these idiots
12:30 who think they found the next Bitcoin by
12:32 some stupid coin that’s idiot, you know,
12:34 sort of attracts idiots. So that’s the
12:36 only downside of like a huge parabolic
12:38 rise in the price of Bitcoin is you get
12:40 all these idiots that suddenly feel like
12:42 they found the next Bitcoin because a
12:44 rising tide floats all boats. And in the
12:46 case of Bitcoin, when the largest
12:48 cryptocurrency goes up, it tends to the
12:51 tide tends to float a lot of other
12:53 boats, including a bunch of stupid stuff
12:55 that has no value. And so you got to put
12:57 up with a bunch of idiots who felt like
12:58 they found the next big thing. Uh but
13:00 inevitably all that stuff ends up going
13:03 to zero and then all the you know the
13:05 people be quiet. But that is one
13:07 downside of a bull market is stupid
13:09 stuff starts to go up up too and then
13:12 you got to deal with people who think
13:13 they found the next big thing and don’t
13:14 realize they’re getting scammed
13:16 especially with stuff like XRP which is
13:18 just so blatantly ridiculously a scam
13:20 that you know it’s annoying that people
13:22 get uh scammed. But anyway uh should be
13:25 a super fun next 3 to 6 months. Stay
13:27 safe out there. pay attention and buy
13:30 your Bitcoin before a huge parabolic
13:32 rise because it’s a lot more painful if
13:34 you wait and you buy your and you’re
13:35 stuck buying your Bitcoin at a lot
13:37 higher prices.