00:01 Even I can’t predict if Bitcoin’s price
00:03 is high or low or feels high or feels
00:05 low or is about to go higher or lower.
00:08 And if I can’t, you can’t. And Michael
00:10 Sailor can’t. If Michael Sailor can’t
00:12 predict it, nobody can because he’s
00:14 bought more Bitcoin than anyone else on
00:15 the planet. Literally. Micro Strategy,
00:18 his company is sitting on 77 billion
00:20 dollar of Bitcoin. And he regularly buys
00:23 Bitcoin and then it dips. In fact, it
00:25 seems like almost every time Michael
00:26 Sailor announces a buy of Bitcoin, when
00:29 he announces the buy on Monday morning,
00:31 the price is actually lower than the
00:33 average acquisition price in his
00:35 announcement. So, he’ll announce on
00:37 Monday morning that, hey, Micro Strategy
00:39 bought Bitcoin at a, you know, however
00:42 many Bitcoin at $118,000 per coin. I
00:45 checked the price of Bitcoin and it’s
00:46 $116,000 per coin. Meaning, if he had
00:49 waited, he could have bought it at 116.
00:51 But he got $77 billion of Bitcoin
00:53 because he didn’t play those games
00:55 because if you wait, you miss out. The
00:57 you never hit the price that it was
00:58 going to be. Now, here’s the example
01:00 that I would give for why I can’t time
01:02 the market. I regularly post on Facebook
01:04 about Bitcoin based on my enthusiasm
01:07 level. So, there are quite a few posts,
01:10 if you look back, where I am all excited
01:12 and post something like, “It feels like
01:14 Bitcoin’s about to run higher.” And
01:18 maybe onethird of the time I’m right,
01:20 but it seems like every time I post
01:22 something bullish, which it would means
01:24 optimistic, the price dips. The most
01:27 recent example of this was last week. At
01:29 the end of last week, Bitcoin was
01:30 hovering around 109, $110,000.
01:33 And I was like, “This is crazy. It’s
01:36 going higher. I know it’s going higher.”
01:38 So, I composed a post for Facebook
01:41 basically saying, “Hey, it feels like
01:42 Bitcoin’s about to go higher.” And then
01:44 I was like, “You know what? Every time I
01:46 post one of these things, it goes lower.
01:47 So, I’m not going to post anything.
01:49 Every time I post that it’s about to go
01:51 higher, then inevitably it dips before
01:54 it goes higher. It always does the
01:56 opposite of what I think. Of course, it
01:58 always eventually goes up, but in the
01:59 short term, it always seems to do the
02:01 opposite. But when I was really planning
02:03 to post all capital letters, you should
02:05 buy Bitcoin right now at $110,000
02:08 and it’s up 10% in literally a week, it
02:11 always does exactly what you want. But
02:12 in the short term, it always seems to do
02:14 the opposite. So, I did not post
02:16 anything and of course I don’t post
02:18 anything and the next day it it jumps to
02:19 114 and the next day after that it’s 118
02:22 and the next day after that it’s 122 and
02:24 I’m like of course the one time where I
02:26 actually exercise some restraint the
02:28 price goes up 10%. But you know there’s
02:32 never a bad time to buy Bitcoin. I’m
02:34 always endorsing now to be a good time
02:36 to buy Bitcoin. So that would have
02:39 implied that last week was a good time
02:40 to buy Bitcoin because I always say it
02:42 is. If you went back and evaluated every
02:45 single post I’ve ever made, you’d find
02:47 that there’s not a great correlation in
02:50 the near term to what exactly Bitcoin’s
02:52 about to do. All that matters is the
02:54 long term. Now, another example of this
02:56 is somebody messaged me earlier this
02:57 week and said, “Hey, James Czech said
02:60 the best time to set up a recurring
03:01 buy,” which is called dollar cost
03:03 averaging, DCA, a recurring buy on River
03:06 or wherever Coinbase, wherever you’re
03:08 doing it, River is much better because
03:09 there’s no fees on River for recurring
03:10 buys. He said, “Look, James check said,
03:13 “The best time to set up recurring buys,
03:15 if you look at the entire history of
03:16 Bitcoin, is on Friday mornings between 7
03:19 and 8:00 p.m.” He’s like, “That’s the
03:21 best time. If you’re going to pick a
03:22 random time in the week to set up a
03:25 recurring buy, you might as well pick
03:27 between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m. on Friday
03:30 mornings, Central time.” This person
03:32 said, “Look, I have it set up where it
03:34 auto buys between 7 and 8 a.m. on Friday
03:37 mornings, but it always seems to dip
03:39 right after I buy. should I change it?
03:41 And my answer was, “No, don’t change
03:43 it.” Because as soon as you change it,
03:46 it’s going to go back to working
03:47 perfectly between 7 and 8 a.m. on Friday
03:50 mornings, central time. You just can’t
03:52 win the timing game. No matter when you
03:53 set up your recurring buy, it’s going to
03:55 feel to you like the price always dips
03:58 right after your buy is triggered. Every
03:60 time you’re looking at your buy,
04:02 literally no matter what time of the
04:03 week, every time you’re looking at it,
04:05 you’re going to check the price of
04:06 Bitcoin and think, “Dang it, it’s
04:08 somehow lower than the price I bought at
04:11 again.” Now, statistically, that’s not
04:12 true. Statistically, it’ll be lower than
04:14 the price you bought it four times, but
04:16 then the fifth time it’ll be way higher
04:18 than the price you bought it, which more
04:19 than makes up the four down times. But
04:21 enough of the time, there’s a huge price
04:23 rise after you bought it. So, for
04:24 example, last Friday between 7 and 8
04:26 a.m. I don’t know what the price was,
04:28 probably in the ballpark of 110 or
04:30 something like that, and you’re up 12%.
04:32 So, maybe you went five weeks in a row
04:34 where every time you it seemed like it
04:36 was a 1% below your buy price, and then
04:39 boom, one time it’s 12% above your buy
04:41 price, which cancels out the other four
04:43 or five times. You can’t play that game.
04:45 I can’t time it. Michael Sailor can’t
04:46 time it. You can’t time it. All we can
04:48 do is buy as much Bitcoin as we can.
04:50 Hold on to it for as long as conceivably
04:51 possible. Don’t play the timing games
04:54 and zoom out. In the long term, it goes
04:56 way up and that’s all that matters. The
04:58 long term is all that matters and that
05:00 is what investing is like.
