Is Bitcoin’s price “stuck“ at $107,000? No. The “realized cap“ realized capitalization is changing

00:01 Hey everyone. Is Bitcoin’s price stuck
00:04 at $107,000
00:06 or is something going on behind the back
00:08 uh behind the scenes and in the
00:09 background? The answer is a lot’s going
00:11 on behind the scenes. Let’s talk about
00:13 it. Okay, so first off, Bitcoin has been
00:16 at $107,000 for about four or five days
00:19 now. And it’s been around somewhere
00:22 between $100,000 and $111,000
00:26 for what feels like months, for it has
00:29 been a good a good portion of the last 6
00:31 months. Okay. So, what’s going on here?
00:33 Well, anytime the price of any asset, it
00:37 doesn’t matter if it’s one of the
00:38 magnificent seven stocks, which is
00:39 Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Apple, sorry,
00:42 Apple, Amazon, Tesla, Facebook, um,
00:45 Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia. I think I
00:48 got all seven. Anyway, it doesn’t matter
00:50 what it is. If something goes up very
00:52 quickly, then it takes time for the
00:55 market to digest it. And we need to talk
00:57 about what’s happening actually behind
00:58 the scenes when the market is digesting
01:01 a price move like that. What’s happening
01:03 is the asset is changing from the hands
01:06 of people who held it below uh earlier
01:08 at a lower price to people who are
01:11 buying it now at a higher price. Uh it’s
01:14 called the realized capitalization. So
01:16 you got to understand the difference
01:18 between the market capitalization which
01:19 is called the market cap and the
01:21 realized capitalization which is called
01:23 the realized cap. Okay. So the market
01:25 capitalization
01:27 of any asset is the price at which it
01:30 last traded hands. So, the very last
01:33 Bitcoin that someone sold to one person
01:35 or another was at $107,300
01:39 when I started this video. Okay? But not
01:41 every Bitcoin has been bought or sold at
01:44 that price. In fact, some of the very
01:45 earliest Bitcoin have never been sold at
01:47 any price. So, the realized
01:50 capitalization of that very early
01:52 Bitcoin is $0. Some of the Bitcoin I own
01:55 I bought for $6,400.
01:57 the realized capitalization of that
01:59 Bitcoin is $6,400 because I’ve never
02:02 sold it. Um, so most of the Bitcoin I’ve
02:06 ever bought, I’ve never sold. And so I
02:08 carry it at a price that is
02:10 significantly lower than today’s price.
02:12 Now, every time I use my Coinbase debit
02:14 card, the realized capitalization of
02:17 whatever Bitcoin I’m spending jumps up
02:20 to the current price. Um so the realized
02:23 capitalization of any asset is always
02:26 significantly below the current market
02:28 rate. But what matters is where is it
02:31 going? What’s happening with that
02:32 realized capitalization? And then the
02:34 answer is with Bitcoin, it’s going up
02:36 and it’s climbing and climbing and
02:37 climbing because at times of chop
02:40 solidation or consolidation, whatever
02:43 you want to call it, what’s actually
02:44 happening behind the scenes is people
02:46 that have held the asset for a long time
02:48 are selling it a portion of their
02:50 holdings to to new people. Now, you
02:52 think you might think that’s annoying. I
02:54 wish everybody who had ever owned
02:56 Bitcoin would stop selling it so the
02:59 price would have to go up. Well, the
03:01 truth is you’re going to do the exact
03:02 same thing. The $10,000 of Bitcoin or
03:05 $50,000 of Bitcoin or $1,000 of Bitcoin,
03:08 however much Bitcoin you own right now,
03:11 when that has increased in value by a
03:13 factor of 10 or a factor of five or a
03:15 factor of 20, you’re going to be feeling
03:17 rich or richer than you are right now.
03:20 And what people do when they feel more
03:23 wealthy is they spend some. So, if you
03:26 buy $10,000 of Bitcoin and it goes up by
03:29 a factor of five over the next five
03:30 years, you’re going to be sitting on
03:32 $50,000 and you will find it
03:34 irresistible to spend a little bit of
03:36 that taking your family to Disney World
03:38 or going to Universal Studios or taking
03:41 some other nice vacation or something
03:42 like that. In my case, even though I am
03:45 a net buyer of Bitcoin, um, all the way
03:47 up till I reached 100% earlier this
03:50 year, and I’ve made two purchases since
03:52 then, one for $14,000, the other for I
03:56 think it was like $11,000. I forget what
03:58 it was. Anyway, I posted them to
03:60 Facebook. I made two uh larger
04:02 purchases, but otherwise, I’m buying bit
04:04 Bitcoin every two weeks with my
04:05 paycheck. Um, so I’ve been a net buyer
04:08 of Bitcoin, but let’s assume I wasn’t.
04:10 Let’s assume that whatever it was,
04:12 $14,000 and $11,000 or whatever it was
04:15 had not come out of nowhere enabling me
04:17 to buy more Bitcoin. Well, someone like
04:20 me up at $107,000
04:22 feels like, for example, I can afford a
04:24 Tesla. So, I bought a Tesla. Now, in my
04:26 case, I financed the Tesla, which means
04:28 I did not have to sell Bitcoin. I just
04:30 have to sell a little bit of Bitcoin
04:32 once a month for 5 years. Um, but if I
04:34 had bought it just outright, that would
04:37 have been sell pressure on the
04:38 marketplace. I actually did buy outright
04:41 a generator for my house. So now my
04:44 electricity will stop constantly going
04:45 off. Um, and that was $20,000 for a
04:49 whole house generator that can handle
04:51 three air conditioners and a Tesla
04:52 charger and all that. Uh, it was $20,000
04:55 for a colar uh 26 kilowatt hour or
04:58 something like that. I don’t know what
04:59 it was. Anyway, but if I had just, you
05:02 know, let’s assume I was not a net buyer
05:04 of Bitcoin. I was just an early OG
05:06 Bitcoiner, which I’m not. I’m 2017
05:08 Bitcoin, which is later. Um, but
05:11 everybody feels late, including the
05:13 people buying right now, including me in
05:14 2017. Um, let’s assume I had some
05:17 Bitcoin I had bought for an average
05:21 price in 2019 and 20 or sorry, 2018 and
05:24 2017 of $10,000, which was around the
05:27 price I was spending back then, maybe
05:29 about $9,000. Well, once you’re up 10x
05:31 on that money, suddenly you feel like
05:32 you could afford a generator and you
05:34 think, “Okay, I’m willing to part with a
05:36 little bit of my Bitcoin stash to buy a
05:38 generator.” Well, that creates sell
05:40 pressure. Well, every time the market
05:42 goes up, people who have held Bitcoin a
05:45 long time decide to part with a little
05:47 bit of their stash to improve the lives
05:49 of themselves and their family. They go
05:50 on vacations, they buy generators, they
05:52 buy Teslas, they do all the things
05:55 people do. Now, I live a pretty modest
05:57 lifestyle, but if Bitcoin was, you know,
05:59 below $30,000 per coin, I would not be
06:02 driving a Tesla
06:04 because even though I could technically
06:05 afford it, I just wouldn’t feel good
06:07 about it. Um, so every time the price
06:09 rises to a new level, as Bitcoin did
06:12 back in November, it takes a while for
06:15 everybody who wants to liquidate just a
06:18 little bit of the Bitcoin they’ve been
06:19 sitting on for a long time, uh, to
06:22 liquidate that Bitcoin, and then the
06:24 price continues to go up. And that will
06:26 always be the case, and that will be the
06:27 case with your Bitcoin as well. So maybe
06:30 you liquidate a little bit of your
06:32 Bitcoin at $500,000, maybe it’s a
06:34 million. But for people who bought
06:36 Bitcoin at $100 or $1,000 or even
06:38 $10,000, some of them are liquidating a
06:41 little bit of it right now. And that’s
06:43 actually a good thing because if they
06:44 weren’t, then you would be stuck buying
06:46 the Bitcoin you own at a much higher
06:48 price than whatever price you paid for
06:50 it. So in my case, I’m glad back in 2017
06:54 and 2018 and then subsequently in 2021,
06:57 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, which were
07:01 all the years I was buying Bitcoin, I
07:03 should have been buying Bitcoin in 2019
07:05 and 2020. I wasn’t. I should have been,
07:08 you know, my bad. I hadn’t done the work
07:10 to understand it. Um, but I’m glad
07:14 people back then were selling Bitcoin to
07:16 make their lives of themselves and their
07:17 families better because otherwise I
07:19 would have had to pay a much higher
07:21 price. And the same with you. You should
07:23 be thankful that those people are
07:24 selling Bitcoin now because it’s the
07:27 only reason that you got to buy Bitcoin
07:29 at whatever price you paid for it and
07:30 not a price that is radically higher. So
07:34 what happens over time? Well, what
07:35 happens over time? Uh, for example,
07:37 yesterday 40 billion dollars of Bitcoin
07:40 changed hands. $40 billion changed
07:43 hands. Much of it from people who had
07:46 held it a long time to people who were
07:48 new joining the train. Um, today 30
07:53 because it’s the weekend there. The
07:54 volumes are always lower on weekends.
07:55 Today, in the last 24 hours, $30 billion
07:59 of Bitcoin changed hands. So it’s
08:02 changing hands from people who have held
08:04 it for a long time mostly to people who
08:06 are buying it for the first time um or
08:09 expanding their purchasing uh for the
08:11 first time. And that is the way money
08:13 always works and that will be the way it
08:15 continues to work until everyone in the
08:17 entire world exclusively uses Bitcoin as
08:20 their only currency. And when that
08:21 happens, the price will have stabilized
08:24 somewhere between $1 million and $21
08:26 million. Uh pretty much every Bitcoiner
08:30 I know in the world thinks Bitcoin goes
08:32 north of $1 million. The most bullish
08:35 projections uh right now are $21
08:38 million. Uh which is Michael Sailor.
08:40 He’s generally got the most bullish
08:42 forecasts. So somewhere between more
08:45 than a million and $21 million per coin,
08:49 it will level out. the world will use
08:51 exclusively bitcoin as money and uh the
08:54 value will go up about 3% per year
08:56 because 3% per year is about how much
08:59 humans get better at making stuff. So if
09:01 you have a fixed monetary supply of 21
09:03 million and people keep getting better
09:05 at making stuff eventually
09:08 uh the uh or not eventually but at the
09:10 whole time that is happening the money
09:12 uh increases in purchasing power by 3%
09:15 per year because that you can just buy
09:17 more stuff. there’s 3% more stuff you
09:20 can buy with the same money in the
09:21 world. So, that’s what’s happening. Uh,
09:23 if the price is frustrating to you and
09:25 you think, why are we stuck at $107,000?
09:27 Uh, we’re only stuck in the current
09:30 price, the realized capitalization keeps
09:34 climbing as the people who who own those
09:37 21 million Bitcoin keeps changing and
09:41 the new people the old people get off
09:43 the bus with a little bit of their
09:44 stash. new people get on the bus and
09:46 start the journey and eventually we run
09:49 out of Bitcoin that people who have held
09:52 it for a long time want to sell. So in
09:54 my case, all I ever like, you know, all
09:56 I’ve wanted in the last couple years was
09:57 a generator and to drive a Tesla. So I’m
10:00 good. Like I don’t have any major
10:02 purchases on my horizon. Many OG
10:05 Bitcoiners are in the same way. They’ve
10:07 made the adjustments over the last six
10:09 or seven months to adjust their
10:10 lifestyle to buy whatever they want to
10:12 buy and then they decide they want to
10:14 hold on to the rest. And as soon as
10:15 enough people do that, the price has to
10:17 increase because adoption continues to
10:19 go up. It’s just a matter of time. So
10:21 just be patient, load up on whatever
10:23 Bitcoin you want to own before the next
10:24 big upswing. And uh enjoy your journey.
10:28 I’m here to help in any way I can.
10:29 Thanks.