Are Quantum Computers a Threat to Bitcoin?

00:01 hey everyone are quantum computers a
00:04 threat to Bitcoin let’s talk about that
00:06 as a handful of people have sent me
00:08 different articles Uh what triggered
00:09 this was that Google has a quantum
00:12 computer called Willow and they uh just
00:15 released that it you know their quantum
00:16 computer did some cool new stuff that
00:18 other quantum computers haven’t done yet
00:20 And they’re using it as proof that hey
00:22 maybe quantum computers are right around
00:24 the corner So a couple thoughts One
00:26 quantum computers that could actually
00:28 crypt uh actually crack cryptography or
00:32 security systems that are currently in
00:34 use are decades into the future Minimum
00:36 10 years probably more like 20 Uh people
00:39 have been talking about quantum
00:40 computers since the 1990s Here we are in
00:43 2024 We’re still a very long way away So
00:46 one the everyone agrees that the threat
00:48 from quantum computers is a decade plus
00:52 away probably multi-deade pluses away Uh
00:55 second if quantum computers start
00:58 cracking encryption technology Bitcoin
01:01 will be the least of your concerns Um
01:03 because they’re going to crack
01:04 everything else first So long before
01:06 Bitcoin has a problem your bank accounts
01:09 your websites all of the secure
01:10 communication on the internet that is
01:12 going to get cracked and unencrypted
01:14 long before uh Bitcoin has a problem
01:16 just due to the nature of how difficult
01:18 it is to crack that sort of thing as
01:20 opposed to Bitcoin Um third Bitcoin has
01:23 the best software developers in the
01:24 entire world working on it Literally the
01:27 best developers the most capable
01:29 cryptographers the most competent people
01:32 with cryptography mathematics uh I mean
01:35 those people the best of the best of the
01:37 best work on Bitcoin because Bitcoin is
01:39 the coolest thing There’s nothing else
01:41 you can work on that is protecting $2
01:43 trillion of value with your cryptography
01:46 skills than Bitcoin So therefore Bitcoin
01:48 attracts all of the most competent good
01:51 guys because there’s the most at stake
01:53 So Bitcoin has the most uh competent
01:56 developer network of of literally
01:58 anything on the in the on the planet
02:00 which means Bitcoin if there is an
02:03 actual threat from quantum computers to
02:06 the cryptography of Bitcoin Bitcoin is
02:08 going to get upgraded long before
02:11 anything else gets upgraded It’s going
02:13 to take way longer to adopt for regular
02:16 old banks including community banks and
02:18 that sort of thing to upgrade their
02:20 websites and their login portals and
02:22 their um mobile applications That
02:25 process is just you know it’s like the
02:28 com or sorry the year 2 Y2K bug you know
02:32 if if you had a central system like
02:33 Bitcoin it’s a lot easier to patch that
02:36 uh for the Y2K bug than it is every tiny
02:39 little system running airlines and ATMs
02:42 and all of that sort of stuff So in
02:44 addition to that people uh talk about
02:46 the early uh Bitcoin that was mined by
02:49 Satoshi Nakamoto himself to get the mark
02:51 the uh the uh the network running They
02:55 act like it’s all in one one wallet
02:57 where you know somebody could hack it It
02:59 spread across 22,000 wallets So um every
03:04 time Satoshi Nakamoto mined a block
03:07 which was 50 Bitcoin back then it went
03:09 to a different address on the Bitcoin
03:11 blockchain So they act like it’s this
03:13 honeypot with a bunch of Bitcoin in it
03:15 and the moment somebody cracks it they
03:17 can have all that Bitcoin No it’s 22,000
03:20 honeypotss and every one you crack you
03:23 get 50 Bitcoin um which obviously
03:26 doesn’t add up if you crack a lot of
03:27 them But again the entire network could
03:29 be upgraded uh to uh quantum proof and
03:33 quantum compatible uh cryptography long
03:36 before it actually becomes a problem
03:39 People talk about the difficulty of
03:41 upgrading the Bitcoin network It’s not
03:43 difficult to upgrade the the Bitcoin
03:45 network as long as there’s consensus
03:46 that it needs to be done Uh the reason
03:49 there’s been a lot of you know changes
03:51 have not happened on the Bitcoin network
03:53 was a large percent of the network did
03:56 not agree that the change was necessary
03:58 Therefore there’s lots of people
03:60 complaining that their new wind feature
04:02 that did this or that never made it into
04:05 the core Bitcoin code that runs in the
04:08 answer is well because people didn’t
04:09 think it was worth it They didn’t think
04:11 the riskreward of introducing new code
04:14 with new features was worth it Um so
04:17 they didn’t bother because they didn’t
04:18 think it was worth it If quantum
04:20 computing is actually a threat then
04:23 that’s going to be something that there
04:24 is it’s very easy to get agreement on
04:27 and therefore Bitcoin will be upgraded
04:29 accordingly Um so am I worried about the
04:32 quantum computing threat no People have
04:35 been dreaming up things to be worried
04:36 about from the beginning of time
04:38 Everybody that gets quoted in these
04:40 articles has an incentive to play up how
04:42 big a threat it is Nobody Nobody wants
04:45 to be Nobody wants to say what I say
04:47 which is hey it’s a threat That’s a long
04:50 way in the future It will probably never
04:52 materialize If it ever materializes
04:54 really good software developers are
04:56 going to fix it long before it becomes a
04:58 problem Nobody That doesn’t make a good
04:60 sound bite That doesn’t scare anybody
05:02 That does not meet the criteria of if it
05:04 bleeds it leads which is what news runs
05:07 on Which means every story you’re going
05:09 to see about Bitcoin and quantum
05:11 computers is going to be “Oh no the sky
05:14 is falling Something bad might happen.”
05:16 And then they’ll quote people who are in
05:18 the industry who of either quantum
05:20 computers saying it’s right around the
05:21 corner or people who are trying to sell
05:25 products and services to make stuff
05:26 quantum resistant which of course are
05:28 also going to say the threat is right
05:30 around the corner So coming from someone
05:33 who has you know 97% of their liquid net
05:36 worth in Bitcoin I’m telling you the
05:38 threat is not imminent will probably
05:42 never materialize And if it starts to
05:44 materialize Bitcoin will be upgraded far
05:46 before anything else gets upgraded And
05:49 the stuff that’s going to end up getting
05:50 hacked is the the millions of
05:53 technological systems that are old that
05:56 nobody’s really paying attention to
05:57 nowadays And you know they don’t have
05:60 the world’s best software developers
06:02 working on them all at the same time So
06:04 uh anyway like everything uh every every
06:08 news story involves the sky falling
06:10 massive change needed They’re trying to
06:12 scare everybody because nobody reads
06:13 news that’s not sensational And the
06:16 truth is there’s not a threat right now
06:19 If there becomes one it’ll be fixed more
06:21 than a decade before it’s a real problem
06:23 And uh of all the things you should be
06:25 worried about Bitcoin is not one of them
06:28 Because everything else in your life is
06:30 going to get cracked and hacked by
06:32 quantum computers long before Bitcoin
06:35 has that problem Because all the other
06:38 things in your life that rely on
06:39 cryptography including all your bank
06:41 accounts and your retirement funds and
06:44 all that sort of stuff that stuff I
06:46 promise you does not have the very best
06:49 software developers in the entire world
06:51 working on it every single day the way
06:53 Bitcoin does So short take is don’t
06:56 worry about it Accumulate as much
06:57 Bitcoin as you can It’s not a threat you
06:60 need to worry about now And if it ever
07:02 becomes one it’ll be fixed more than a
07:03 decade before
07:06 matters So Bitcoin’s in a great spot
07:08 That’s not going to change Thanks
07:09 everyone