Is bitcoin still a good investment? When will bitcoin stop being a good investment?

00:02 Everyone, let’s talk about is Bitcoin a
00:04 good investment still like right now and
00:07 when if ever will it stop being a good
00:10 investment? When will it be a bad time
00:12 to put money in Bitcoin? So, first of
00:14 all, I think this is just my opinion,
00:16 not tax advice, not legal advice, not
00:18 accounting advice, not any kind of
00:20 advice, not financial advice. Um, in my
00:22 opinion, yes, Bitcoin is a fantastic
00:24 investment right now at current prices
00:26 which are just under
00:28 $98,000. just under $98,000 up pretty
00:31 aggressively in the last month. Uh um so
00:34 yes, I still think it’s a great
00:35 investment and the reason for that is
00:37 that adoption worldwide is still very
00:40 early. Uh very few companies have
00:42 Bitcoin on their balance sheet. A
00:44 relatively small number of total people
00:46 in the world somewhere between, you
00:47 know, less than five, you know, le
00:50 certainly less than 10%, probably less
00:51 than 5% of the world population owns any
00:55 Bitcoin at all. And most of those people
00:57 own a very small percent of their
00:59 portfolio of assets in Bitcoin. So we’re
01:02 still very early in the adoption, very
01:04 early in the adoption by corporations,
01:06 very early in the adoption by nation
01:09 states, very early in the adoption by
01:11 individuals, very early in the adoption
01:13 by everyone. Which means the future
01:15 price of Bitcoin once adoption is much
01:18 more robust, much more uh I guess widely
01:22 adopted, the price will be much higher.
01:24 Certainly some price I believe well
01:27 north of a million dollars per coin
01:28 which gives you a 10x return a 1,000%
01:32 return between now and a million dollars
01:34 per coin. Um so will Bitcoin ever not be
01:38 a good investment? Well at some point
01:40 Bitcoin will transition from being an
01:43 investment to just a money. So what is
01:46 the difference between an investment and
01:47 a and a money? Well, in an investment,
01:50 you expect the price to appreciate as a
01:54 result of things like improvement
01:56 improving of the product or service,
01:59 adoption of the product or service, all
02:01 of that sort of thing. Eventually, when
02:03 it comes to money, the uh when an when a
02:06 money is fully adopted worldwide, the
02:09 thing that makes it go up in value is
02:11 what’s called productivity growth.
02:13 Productivity growth means that humans in
02:16 general are about 3% better at making
02:19 any given thing year upon year on over
02:23 year. So next year we’ll be about 3%
02:26 better at making cars, making cans of
02:29 you know uh Campbell soup, making Big
02:32 Macs, making whatever. Now the reason
02:34 the price of all of those things is
02:36 going is because the currency we pay in
02:38 is going down. The world is not getting
02:41 worse at making things, which is how why
02:43 they’re getting more expensive. The
02:45 world is getting better at making
02:46 things. So, we’re 3% better at making
02:49 things every year. But the government
02:52 prints 7% more US dollars every year.
02:55 So, instead of everything going down in
02:57 price by 3% a year, which reflects how
03:00 much better we are getting at making
03:02 things, instead the prices go 4% because
03:05 you’re basically getting robbed 7% every
03:07 year. uh the 7% of value you’re losing
03:11 is one the 4% or so inflation. It’s
03:14 between four and 9% most of the time uh
03:17 is inflation in general. Sometimes it’s
03:20 in the double digits in bouts of high
03:21 inflation for the US dollar, but in
03:24 general it’s typically in the 4% to 9%
03:26 range. So you’re losing that. You’re
03:28 getting screwed that way. Plus, you
03:31 don’t even realize it, but you’re not
03:33 benefiting from the 3% reduction in
03:36 prices that would happen just because
03:38 everybody around the world gets 3%
03:40 better at making everything as a result
03:42 of better equipment, better skills,
03:45 better education, better, you know,
03:47 global infrastructure, you know, all of
03:49 that sort of stuff. So, you’re getting
03:50 robbed 7%, four to 9% of that is showing
03:54 up in actual inflation data. The other
03:56 3% is human productivity growth that you
03:59 are not benefiting from because the
04:01 government took it away from you. Uh so
04:04 the more one gets adopted, the closer we
04:06 get to the point where it will just go
04:09 up 3% a year. So in a world and I
04:11 anticipate this is decades in the
04:12 future, not like now, not next year, and
04:15 not even a decade from now, let’s call
04:17 it two or three decades from now. It
04:19 takes a long time for humans to adopt
04:21 things. It just, you know, it takes a
04:23 long time for humans to adopt things. It
04:25 just does. Um especially when it
04:27 involves major behavior change. Uh even
04:30 with something like Facebook, it takes,
04:32 you know, more than 20 years for most of
04:34 the world to have a Facebook account. Um
04:36 that that’s for free. So it takes 20
04:39 years for something that’s completely
04:40 free to get adopted worldwide like the
04:43 internet or Facebook or a Facebook
04:46 account. It takes a lot longer for
04:47 something to get adopted uh when you
04:50 have to put money on the line, which is
04:51 obviously you do because the nature of
04:53 money is you got to trade something for
04:55 it. You got to trade your labor or some
04:57 other kind of money like the US dollar,
04:59 the euro, the yen, the one, you know,
05:02 there got to be the peso, uh the
05:05 balibar, whatever it is kind of money
05:06 you got. You got to trade that or you
05:08 got to trade your labor to get Bitcoin
05:10 in the first place. So it’s the adoption
05:11 is slower of monetary technologies uh
05:14 because um it requires you to uh put
05:18 time you know have skin in the game
05:19 instead of like a free Facebook account
05:21 or just surfing the internet for free at
05:23 an internet cafe or something like that.
05:25 So anyway so in in the early
05:28 monetization the uh the upside you get
05:31 is the adoption worldwide as everybody
05:34 after you figures out that Bitcoin is a
05:37 better money. uh you get the benefit of
05:39 that because the global adoption drives
05:42 the price up. Eventually, everybody gets
05:44 the benefit of a money that increases in
05:46 value rather than decreases. So even
05:49 though the very very very last person
05:52 who will ever adopt Bitcoin in the
05:54 entire planet, even though that person
05:56 will not benefit from the appreciation,
05:59 the price going up as a result of
06:01 adoption because they are literally the
06:03 last person to adopt it, they will
06:05 benefit from then holding holding a
06:07 money that goes up in value by about 3%
06:10 per year, which is a function of the
06:12 fact that, you know, the longer they
06:14 hold that Bitcoin, the better humans get
06:16 at making the things that they intend to
06:20 buy, whether that’s a car or a house or
06:22 a Big Mac or a um a can of Campbell soup
06:26 or whatever it is. Humans get better at
06:28 making stuff. So, the longer you hold
06:29 the money, the cheaper the stuffs
06:32 gets. So, that is not the case with the
06:34 US dollar. The US dollar starts losing
06:36 value from the very instant you touch
06:39 it. And the longer you hold it, the
06:40 longer the more value it loses. the
06:43 longer you wait to spend it, the more
06:44 the price of the things you want to buy
06:47 have gone up. And again, that is a
06:49 direct result of government money
06:51 printing. So, um, again, Bitcoin is a,
06:54 in my opinion, a great investment right
06:57 now. It’s also a great money, but it’s
06:59 especially a great investment. And over
07:01 the next somewhere between 10 years and
07:04 25 years, it will transition to being
07:07 mostly an investment for most people to
07:09 mostly a money for most people. And uh
07:12 it will still at the very end of global
07:14 adoption, it will still go up 3% per
07:16 year, which is way better than the
07:18 current money that loses 4% to 9% per
07:21 year. So it’ll still be way better for
07:23 everybody. But in 25 years from now, if
07:25 somebody calls me out of the blue and
07:27 says, “Joel, I heard you’re super into
07:29 Bitcoin. I heard it did really well for
07:31 you. Should I buy Bitcoin as an
07:33 investment and plan to get rich?” I
07:35 would say, well, no, because everybody
07:37 else on the planet has already adopted
07:39 it. Instead of like 5% of the people
07:41 right now, which means if you’re buying
07:43 Bitcoin right now, you’re ahead of 95%
07:45 of the world. 25 years from now, you
07:47 might only be ahead of 5% of the world.
07:50 I would say, look, yeah, you can go buy
07:52 Bitcoin. Maybe it’s a million dollars a
07:54 coin, maybe 2 million a coin, maybe
07:56 three million a coin. You can go buy
07:58 Bitcoin 25 years from now. It’ll still
08:01 be a great money and there will still be
08:03 a little bit of economic upside as a
08:06 result of global adoption, but that
08:09 might mean instead of your money earning
08:11 purchasing power at 3% a year, maybe it
08:13 earns purchasing power at 4% a year
08:15 because you get the 3% human
08:17 productivity growth plus maybe another
08:19 percent as a result of global adoption
08:21 and population growth and things like
08:24 that. Uh but 25 years from now, Bitcoin
08:27 is not going to be an amazing rockstar
08:29 investment because everybody’s going to
08:31 be using it already. And just like
08:33 anything else in the world, um again,
08:36 that doesn’t mean companies like
08:37 Coca-Cola or Amazon or Apple or
08:40 Microsoft or Facebook or Google doesn’t
08:44 or Tesla, you know, Tesla’s a much
08:46 younger company than those others. Let’s
08:47 just say the other companies that are
08:48 all, you know, three or four decades old
08:50 or in the case of Coca-Cola, like, you
08:52 know, more than 100 years old. That
08:54 doesn’t mean any of those are bad
08:55 investments. You should just not buy
08:57 Coca-Cola stock expecting to 10x your
08:59 money in 10 years. You know, you’re just
09:01 humans are not going to start drinking
09:03 Coca-Cola fast enough. And that the
09:06 global adoption of Coca-Cola and the
09:08 percentage of people who drink Coke
09:10 products is not going to 10x in the next
09:14 10 years. Absolutely, that can happen
09:16 for Bitcoin. It is not going to happen
09:18 for Coca-Cola. It probably, you know,
09:21 maybe it can happen for Amazon. Maybe it
09:22 can happen for It probably can’t happen
09:25 for Google. Again, most of the world
09:26 already uses Google for their search
09:28 engine. And Google has other products,
09:30 but most of the world’s already using
09:32 Google. Most of the world’s already
09:34 using YouTube and their other major cash
09:36 cows that Google owns. So, you’re
09:38 probably not going to make 10x your
09:40 money on Google in the next 10 years.
09:42 You absolutely still can make 10x your
09:44 money on Bitcoin. And regardless of what
09:46 return you get on Bitcoin, I believe it
09:49 will be better than the return you could
09:51 have gotten with any other investment.
09:53 And that’s really all you can hope for.
09:55 Nobody knows what the future holds for
09:56 any asset you could possibly store your
09:59 wealth in. But if Bitcoin outperforms
10:02 every other major asset over the next 10
10:04 years, like it already did the last 10
10:06 years, what matters is that every dollar
10:09 in Bitcoin ends up better off than every
10:11 other dollar you could have put in every
10:13 other thing. And there’s really no more
10:16 you can hope for than that is that you
10:18 outperformed every other asset. So, uh I
10:20 think it’s a great time to buy Bitcoin.
10:22 Bitcoin is still early in the adoption
10:23 cycle, which means it is a fantastic
10:26 investment and a fantastic money and
10:29 currency. Uh over the next call it 20 or
10:32 30 years, it will transition to being
10:35 less good as an investment because most
10:37 of the people who are ever going to
10:39 adopt Bitcoin will have already adopted
10:41 it. Uh but again today that presents
10:43 like 5% worldwide. So huge amount of
10:45 upside still there. But over time that
10:48 will uh transition where it will mostly
10:50 just be a money uh as opposed to an
10:53 investment. It will just be a money and
10:55 it will be the world’s best money and
10:57 that will serve the world very well and
10:59 everybody who uses it will be better
11:00 off. But again that’s different than
11:02 making 10x your money in 10 years. Uh
11:05 which is I think very doable with
11:07 Bitcoin right now. So hope all that
11:09 helps. Have a great day everyone.
11:10 Thanks.