00:01 Hey everyone. A friend of mine missed
00:03 out on $10 million by trying to sell his
00:07 Bitcoin when it felt like it was high
00:10 and then planning to buy it back uh when
00:12 it was lower. So, here’s the quick
00:14 story. So, I’ve got a friend who was in
00:16 Bitcoin from very early on, very, very
00:19 early on. And um ultimately he he had
00:23 somewhere between 3,000 and 4,000
00:25 Bitcoin. Uh but ultimately traded
00:27 virtually all of them in for Dogecoin.
00:30 Uh and obviously Dogecoin did not
00:32 perform well. He ultimately sold all of
00:34 the Dogecoin for I don’t know something
00:36 like $100,000 or something like that. So
00:38 obviously starting out with close to
00:40 nothing and ending up with $100,000 is
00:43 great. except had he held on to that
00:45 Bitcoin, it would have been worth right
00:47 now between $300 million and $400
00:51 million. So, you know, but that’s not
00:53 the that’s not the main point of this
00:55 story. Um, that’s the main point of the
00:57 story. Don’t ever trade your Bitcoin for
00:58 something else and don’t ever buy
00:59 anything in crypto other than Bitcoin
01:01 because that that cost, you know, $300
01:04 million plus
01:06 uh in this case. But what this story is
01:08 about is uh $10 million. the story of
01:11 $10 million because when he swapped his
01:13 Bitcoin for Dogecoin, he kept 100
01:16 Bitcoin. And uh his thought was, I’m
01:18 always going to have 100 Bitcoin. If
01:20 Bitcoin ends up being worth a lot one
01:22 day, I’ll always have 100 Bitcoin. But
01:24 he noticed that the price went up and
01:25 down a lot as it always does because
01:27 Bitcoin is a volatile asset early in its
01:30 price uh cycles, uh early in its
01:32 lifespan where we are right now. And and
01:35 back then when the story took place, it
01:37 was even earlier in Bitcoin’s life
01:39 cycle. and Bitcoin was $100 a coin. So
01:43 he was looking at the price of Bitcoin
01:44 and it was $100 a coin and Bitcoin had
01:47 become worth a penny. That was a big
01:48 deal when Bitcoin was worth a penny. And
01:50 then it was a much bigger deal when
01:52 Bitcoin was worth a dollar. And here it
01:54 was up at $100 per coin. So his 100
01:58 Bitcoin at $100 per coin was worth uh
02:03 $10,000. And he thought, well, I want to
02:06 have more than 100 Bitcoin. Um, I know
02:08 what I’ll do. I will sell them for
02:11 $10,000 and then I will wait for the
02:14 price to drop and then I’ll buy them
02:16 back at a price less than uh less than
02:19 $100 per Bitcoin and then it’ll be
02:22 great. Um, the challenge was uh, of
02:26 course, $100 seemed high because
02:29 everything seems high when you’re
02:30 hitting it for the first time. So he he
02:33 thought $100 a bitcoin, how much higher
02:34 can it really go? like $100 a bitcoin is
02:37 really high. Um anyway, and it seemed
02:39 like it would go back down lower. So he
02:41 sold it for 10. He sold 97 of his 100
02:44 bitcoins. So he only had three left. He
02:46 sold 97 for
02:47 $10,000 planning to buy them back. Well,
02:50 you know, life got bit got busy and
02:52 people get distracted and all that sort
02:54 of stuff. And by the time uh he was
02:57 checking sort of judiciously to see if
02:59 it was time to buy the Bitcoin back, the
03:02 price instead of going down, enabling
03:05 him to buy more Bitcoin for cheap, the
03:07 price had instead gone up to $300 per
03:10 Bitcoin. Uh so now this $10,000 of
03:13 Bitcoin was now worth $30,000 of
03:16 Bitcoin. Well, he didn’t want to buy a
03:18 100 Bitcoin back or in this case 97. He
03:21 did not want to buy the 97 bitcoin back
03:23 for $30,000 because he had just sold it,
03:27 I don’t know, 6 or eight months prior
03:29 for 10,000. And of course, if you just
03:31 sold something for 10,000, it seems
03:33 ridiculously expensive to turn around
03:36 and buy the same thing back for triple
03:39 what you uh what you just sold it for.
03:41 So, he decided not to do that. that he
03:43 decided just to sit on his three bitcoin
03:45 and not buy the 97 bitcoin back uh for
03:49 $30,000 because again he had just sold
03:51 it, you know, earlier less than a year
03:53 prior for $10,000. So, as a result of
03:57 all that, when all the dust settled, he
03:59 had the I don’t know, I’m guessing
04:01 $100,000 uh something, you know, low six
04:04 figures, whatever, uh from the Dogecoin,
04:07 which again would have been worth $300
04:09 million had he kept it in Bitcoin. and
04:12 then uh he could have had and would have
04:15 had the $10 million had he not sold it
04:19 um and with the intention of buying it
04:21 back. So what could we learn from that?
04:24 Uh what we can learn is don’t do that.
04:26 So right now $100,000 seems like a lot
04:28 of money per Bitcoin. So, there are a
04:31 bunch of people who are looking at the
04:33 price of Bitcoin and thinking at
04:35 $100,000 exactly what my friend thought
04:38 at $100, which is, wow, this seems high.
04:42 It seems to go up and down a lot. How
04:44 high can it really go? Maybe this is as
04:46 high as it’s going to go for the time
04:48 being. Maybe I should sell my Bitcoin
04:50 and buy it back at a lower price. And I
04:53 can just about promise you if you go
04:55 down that road, you will have the same
04:57 experience that my friend had. Um, I
04:60 don’t know how much money you’ll end up
05:01 losing. Hopefully not $10 million or in
05:04 the case where he converted his Bitcoin
05:06 to Dogecoin back in the very early days
05:08 of Doge, he was one of the first people
05:10 uh to own Dogecoin. Um, but regardless,
05:14 you know, that first ma mistake cost him
05:16 somewhere between 300 million and $400
05:18 million. And the second mistake of
05:20 selling the Bitcoin and planning to buy
05:21 it back at a lower price cost him an
05:24 additional $10 million. So, don’t make
05:26 that mistake. on its way up. Every price
05:30 Bitcoin hits seems high. I remember when
05:34 $35,200 I remember when I looked at my
05:37 watch and I saw
05:38 $35,200 and thought, “Wow, that is
05:41 high.” Like, how high is it even going
05:43 to go? Like, that’s really high. I
05:45 remember looking at my watch and seeing
05:47 $62,000 and thinking, “Wow, that is
05:50 really high.” Like, how much higher is
05:52 it going to go? Like, that’s really
05:53 high. I remember looking at my watch
05:56 where I tracked the price of Bitcoin and
05:58 seeing a price of
05:59 $92,000 and thinking, “Wow, that’s
06:02 that’s high.” Like, Bitcoin’s high right
06:05 now. I look at my watch, it is
06:08 $104,000. And I think, “Wow, that’s
06:10 pretty high.” Like, that’s
06:12 high. If I sold my Bitcoin every time it
06:15 felt high, I would have sold my Bitcoin
06:18 back when it was $20,000 and not had any
06:21 anymore. I’d be sitting around waiting
06:23 to buy my Bitcoin back and it would just
06:25 leave me behind at that point. I really
06:28 would miss the boat. I really would be
06:30 late to the party. Um, but you’re not
06:33 late to the party and you didn’t miss
06:34 the boat as long as you buy Bitcoin and
06:36 hold on to it. Uh, the only way you can
06:38 really miss the boat is by not buying
06:40 Bitcoin at all or buying it and then
06:42 selling it and then, you know, look back
06:45 in the future and you could have made 10
06:46 times your money or 100 times your money
06:48 or whatever it ends up being. uh maybe
06:51 more than 100 times your money. Uh
06:52 Michael Sailor is predicting $13 million
06:55 per Bitcoin, which is roughly a$130
06:58 times your money. Um and he’s predicting
07:01 that in the next 20 years or so. So um
07:04 we don’t know what the uh uh
07:07 upside of Bitcoin is. All we know is
07:09 that I believe it will outperform every
07:11 other asset. And if it outperforms every
07:13 other asset, then that means that’s
07:15 where you should keep money that you
07:17 want to outperform every other asset.
07:19 And um and on its way up there will be
07:22 numerous prices that feel high. Uh and
07:26 then you’ll be tempted to sell your
07:27 Bitcoin and don’t do it. Don’t sell your
07:30 Bitcoin. Everybody who does that ends up
07:32 regretting it. And people plan to buy
07:35 their Bitcoin when it’s low, but when it
07:37 when the price goes down, everybody gets
07:39 scared because when the price is down,
07:41 there’s reasons it’s down. and
07:43 everybody’s freaking out and it’s going
07:44 down and everybody’s not they don’t have
07:46 the courage they thought they were going
07:47 to have when it was going up to actually
07:49 buy it when it’s down. So even people
07:51 who think they’re going to buy Bitcoin
07:53 when it’s down tend to not do that
07:56 because by the time it is down, they
07:57 freak out. And they’re freaking out for
07:58 the same reason the whole market’s
07:60 freaking out, which is why the price of
08:01 Bitcoin is down. So very few people have
08:04 the courage and conviction to actually
08:06 buy it when it’s down. And a lot of
08:09 people screw up and sell it when it
08:11 feels like it’s up. So hopefully that
08:13 won’t cost you $10 million like it cost
08:15 my friend uh and it’s cost many other
08:17 people lots of lots of other money. Um,
08:20 so another friend of mine, uh, we had
08:23 dinner a while back, uh, or lunch, I
08:25 guess it was, lunch, and they were
08:26 telling me that they had bought a bunch
08:28 of, uh, or not, I don’t know if it was a
08:30 bunch, they had bought Bitcoin, some
08:32 meaningful amount of Bitcoin at a price
08:33 of
08:34 $5,000. And, uh, they had, you know,
08:37 bought it because, uh, other people at
08:39 their CrossFit CrossFit gym were buying
08:41 Bitcoin, etc., etc., and they bought it
08:43 at 5,000. I was like, “Oh, well, you
08:45 know, what happened next?” They were
08:46 like, “Well, it went up to 20 and I sold
08:48 it.” I was like, “Well, why’d you sell
08:51 it?” And they were like, “Well, because
08:52 like like 20 is like four times as much
08:55 as five.” Like, so it seemed to be way
08:57 up. So like why wouldn’t you buy it at
09:00 five and then you sell it at 20? And the
09:02 answer is because one day it’s worth 105
09:05 and one day it’s worth 200 and one day
09:07 it’s worth 500 and one day it’s worth,
09:10 you know, a million dollars a coin. Like
09:12 that’s why you don’t sell it at 20,000.
09:14 So they made four times their money.
09:16 They could have made, you know, four
09:18 times five. They or uh they could have
09:21 made 20 times their money between $5,000
09:24 and $105,000. They could have made 21
09:27 times their money. 21 times your money.
09:30 Now, how often in your lifetime do you
09:32 get a chance to make 21 times your money
09:35 in relatively few short years? The
09:37 answer is rarely. That that opportunity
09:39 rarely comes along. So, they locked in a
09:42 win at 4x, which is insane because they
09:46 didn’t really lock in a win at 4x. They
09:48 locked themselves out of an additional
09:51 500% return. A 4x could have been
09:55 21x, but it wasn’t because they sold
09:58 their Bitcoin. So, don’t sell your
10:00 Bitcoin. Um, I mean, well, don’t sell
10:03 unless you’re, you know, using Bitcoin
10:05 to make your life better. Um, and that’s
10:08 the point of money and that, you know,
10:10 at that point it is what it is. But, uh,
10:12 anyway, don’t sell your Bitcoin. You’ll
10:14 regret it. It will probably the Bitcoin
10:16 you sell will be unaffordable to buy
10:19 back later. Like, you literally will not
10:20 be able to afford to buy back to get as
10:23 much as you have uh, if you had before
10:25 you sold Bitcoin. So, and certainly
10:27 don’t sell it with the plan of buying it
10:28 back later at a cheaper price because
10:30 you’re probably going to get, you know,
10:32 uh, left in the dust. And plus, what is
10:34 a what does a cheaper price even mean?
10:37 Does that mean it drops from 104 to 98
10:40 or 94, 92? Are you going to only buy
10:43 Bitcoin if it goes back to 85? What if
10:45 it goes back to 75? You know, what if
10:48 we’re in a massive worldwide recession
10:49 and it goes to 75? Are you going to
10:51 freak out and say, “Well, I can’t buy it
10:53 now because the whole world’s on fire.”
10:55 Like, there’s no there’s no way of
10:57 knowing what high is. There’s no way of
10:59 knowing what low is. And if you let
11:02 yourself be tricked into believing that
11:04 you can time the market or time the
11:06 price, I promise you’re gonna just cheat
11:08 yourself out of Bitcoin. Don’t do that.
11:11 You can’t do that at stocks. You can’t
11:12 do that with bonds. You can’t do that
11:13 with commodities. It, you know, they all
11:17 work the same way where it, you know,
11:19 every price that’s high feels high.
11:21 Every price that’s low feels low. And
11:24 then you only realize in retrospect that
11:26 the lows were not low at all and the
11:27 highs were not high at all. And you
11:30 totally got it backwards. you got left
11:31 in the dust and you cheated yourself out
11:33 of financial freedom. So, don’t do that.
11:35 Uh, just buy as the the same advice I
11:38 always give and that I’ve given for
11:39 years. Buy as much Bitcoin as you
11:41 possibly can and hold on to it for as
11:43 long as conceivably possible. And the
11:45 only reason you should part with your
11:47 Bitcoin, like I do when I buy stuff with
11:49 my Coinbased debit card, is to improve
11:51 the life of me and my family. But even
11:54 then, every two weeks when a paycheck
11:55 shows up, I buy more Bitcoin. So over
11:58 time I am accumulating Bitcoin even
12:01 though I’m also spending it. But if you
12:03 are in the mode that you uh you know if
12:07 if you’re not spending it for living
12:08 expenses but only for things that make
12:10 your life better in a significant way,
12:12 well that’s fine. That’s the point of
12:13 money. Just realize whatever amount
12:15 you’re spending is going to be really
12:17 hard to get your hands on that much
12:18 Bitcoin in the future because in the
12:20 future it’s going to be worth a lot more
12:21 than it is now. So don’t sell your
12:23 Bitcoin. Do not sell your Bitcoin and
12:25 plan on buying it back at a cheaper
12:26 price. uh buy as much Bitcoin as you
12:29 can, hold on to it as for as long as
12:30 conceivably possible. That is the
12:32 formula. That has always been the
12:34 formula. Have a great day, everyone.
12:35 Thanks.
